What we learned from FPL Gameweek 6...
Don't sweat your Wildcard - it really isn't that important...
The “Wildcard” is probably the most talked about “chip” in Fantasy Premier League. I have friends who obsess over it to the point of distraction. Here is a small selection of messages I’ve received in the past few weeks on this subject:
“Yeah, I wanted to wildcard this week, but I didn’t have the headspace to do it.”
“I’ve obviously run scared from my wildcard and gone with the shifting the deckchairs on the Titanic approach.”
“I’m staring down the barrel of a wildcard,” followed on the same day by, “Think the league might be too much of a lottery to do a wildcard.”
For the uninitiated, a “chip” is a tool you can activate in FPL to do things you can’t normally do. The available chips in FPL for the 2022/23 season are:
Wildcards – these allow you to make unlimited, permanent transfers in a Gameweek without being hit with a points deduction. This season you can use up to two wildcards. The first is available from the beginning of the campaign until 12th November. The second is available from 26th December and remains available for the rest of the season.
Free Hit – you get one free hit per season. This allows you to make unlimited transfers during a single Gameweek, with your team reverting back after that Gameweek.
Bench Boost – you get one bench boost per season. Bench boost makes all your substitutes’ points count, increasing your potential score in that Gameweek.
Triple Captain – your captain gets triple points for that Gameweek, rather than double points. You get one of these chips per season.
We’ll look at the other chips and when to use them later on this season, but for now let’s zoom in on your wildcards.
Firstly, I’m not saying wildcards aren’t useful - they absolutely are. If your team is out-of-shape (often the case at the beginning when recent data and trends simply aren’t available), a wildcard can get you into shape quickly.
For example, if you spent big on Liverpool’s shaky-looking defence but are now spooked at the benching and early substitutions of Andy Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold, you can pivot away from them and use the proceeds from their sale immediately. This is entirely sensible.
A wildcard can also allow you to remould your team during the transfer window to take account of transfers between clubs.
However, often I’ve seen wildcards used in much less sensible ways. Shifting away from a successful team which is delivering points to players who have a bunch of “green’ fixtures”, for example, might seem like a smart move but smacks of short-termism. You could ultimately be left flailing, desperately trying to get back to the line-up you had previously.
The same is true later in the season if you use your wildcard to target a “double Gameweek” (where sides have two fixtures in the same Gameweek). Short-term gain perhaps, but over the long-term it could cost you.
So by all means make the most of your wildcard if you can – but don’t sweat it too much. And if your team is delivering, you might not need to use it at all.
OK, let’s get down to business – because Gameweek 6 was another with plenty to teach us…
The return of Marcus Rashford (and Manchester United) in FPL…
After Man United’s appalling start to the season, our call that Marcus Rashford’s (MID, £6.5m) opening day FPL price tag could become a “mockery” looked more than a little dicey (you can read our analysis here).
However, Rashford now has five attacking returns in his last four outings (three goals and two assists), including a brace in Gameweek 6 against a previously imperious-looking Arsenal side. He has racked up 40 points this season and is the fourth-highest-scoring player in FPL.
The underlying statistics and his stellar track record (prior to last season) suggest the England international has a good chance of continuing to deliver in fantasy football.
His expected goals (xG) and expected assists (xG Assisted) stand at 0.56 per 90 minutes this season versus actual returns of 0.86 goals and assists per 90 according to Statsbomb. That means a little regression from the current scoring rate is likely - but an attacking return every other game would still make Rashford a huge valuable FPL asset.
Rashford is also undoubtedly being helped by vast improvements in the quality of United’s performance since the 4-0 drubbing against Brentford in Gameweek 2.
The addition of Brazilian winger Antony (MID, £7.5m) - who delivered a debut goal against Arsenal - should further help boost Rashford’s goal and assist opportunities. What’s more, three of United’s next four fixtures - Crystal Palace (A), Leeds (H) and Everton (A) - are against average or below-average defences. Even the visit to Manchester City in Gameweek 9 has upside given United’s preference for using the pace of Rashford, Antony and Jadon Sancho (MID, £7.3m) to hit teams on the break.
Despite all of this, Rashford is still available at £6.5m -the same price as Brighton’s Danny Welbeck (FWD, £6.5m) - and is only in around 16% of teams. He’s a screaming buy in FPL who is set up to deliver points while potentially also freeing up valuable resources to spend elsewhere.
Liverpool’s defensive woes continue…
If you’ve invested in Trent Alexander-Arnold (DEF, £7.5m) or Andy Robertson (DEF, £6.8m), you probably did so on the assumption Liverpool would be a top four defence, with the duo bolstering regular clean sheets with attacking returns and bonus points.
While the attacking returns have been forthcoming to an extent (particularly for Trent), the defensive problems the Reds have encountered this season means both should be under close review in FPL.
We explained last week how Liverpool’s underlying defensive stats were alarming, with the side having one of the highest number of clear shots against per 90 minutes in the Premier League. You can read that analysis here. Their borderline comical defensive performance against Napoli in the Champions League on Wednesday evening will have done little to ease their owners’ nerves.
Over the season so far Liverpool’s opponents’ xG per game has been 1.19 per 90 minutes. By contrast, Man City’s opponents are registering an xG per game of 0.76. Again, not great.
There is also a clear and present threat to both Trent and Robertson’s minutes, with the latter dropped entirely from the 0-0 draw at Everton in Gameweek 6 and the former subbed off after 59 minutes (and thus missing out on clean sheet points).
So why the drop-off in defensive performance? The injury to Joel Matip (DEF, £5.8m) hasn’t helped but the problems appear to be stemming from the collapse in the effectiveness of Jurgen Klopp’s high press. The loss of the tireless Sadio Mane has almost certainly not helped in this regard, with Liverpool attempting to integrate Luis Diaz (MID, £8.1m) and Darwin Nunez (FWD, £8.9m) into the system.
Jordan Henderson (MID, £5.3m) and James Milner (MID, £4.5m) have also looked a yard or two off the pace in midfield.
The fact Liverpool’s defensive problems are potentially down to a structural issue rather than individual mistakes is worrying. The question is, do you trust Klopp to figure it out quickly?
If things don’t improve then FPL managers need not consider the possibility two of last season’s top performers simply aren’t value for money, at least for the time being.
Wolves’ attackers disappoint but defence offers differential value
Wolves are next up for Liverpool, which might be just enough to convince you to hold onto Trent and Robertson for one more week.
Despite a decent amount of pre-season hype for their attacking assets, Wolves have scored just three goals in the opening six fixtures. It is possible they have been a little unlucky given their xG per 90 minutes is 1.04 versus actual goals per 90 of 0.5.
Nevertheless, it’s hard to see value in this faltering frontline for the time being at least, while targeting defenders against them has been a sensible strategy to-date.
However, defensively Wolves have been a revelation and offer genuine, cut-price differential options in FPL.
They have conceded just four goals in six games this campaign, the best record in the league. The underlying stats suggest this is a slight overachievement - the xG for Wolves’ opponents this season is 1.18 per 90 minutes versus actual goals conceded of 0.67 per 90 minutes according to Wyscout - but even a regression towards the mean would make Wolves’ defenders excellent value for money.
Max Kilman (DEF, £4.5m) and Nathan Collins (DEF, £4.5m) are the fourth and eighth top-scoring defenders in FPL with 28 and 27 points apiece, respectively. Both seem to be near-guaranteed starters, although you’ll probably want to hold off picking them until Gameweek 11 given the next four fixtures are Liverpool (A), Man City (H), West Ham (A) and Chelsea (A).
However, the real value player looks to be wing-back Jonny (DEF, £4.3m), who is £0.2m cheaper and offers genuine attacking upside. Keep an eye on his minutes over the next four Gameweeks but he’s started each of the first six fixtures.
Quick notes
Diego Dalot (DEF, £4.5m) - has nailed down a starting place in an improved Man United defence that has kept two clean sheets in four Gameweeks, bagging maximum bonus points in both those fixtures. Only conceded once against Liverpool and Arsenal and offers crucial attacking upside.
Luis Sinisterra (MID, £6.5m) - arrived at Leeds with a big price tag and big reputation. Been eased in by Jesse Marsch but back-to-back starts and goals mean he should now be on your radar. Next two home fixtures are against Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa, two below-average defences, with a visit to Old Trafford sandwiched in-between.
Wesley Fofana (DEF, £4.4m) - huge turmoil at Stamford Bridge following Thomas Tuchel’s departure and Chelsea have been poor defensively all season. Despite an inauspicious start in the Champions League defeat against Dinamo Zagreb on Tuesday, Fofana offers ultra-low-cost access to a defence that should still be among the best in the league come the end of the season.
Joao Cancelo (DEF, £7.1m) - may have been some concern among FPL managers over his attacking involvement after just one assist in the first six games of the season. However, clean sheets and a goal against Nottingham Forest have boosted his points, and Cancelo bagged two assists in City’s 4-0 Champions League triumph during the week.