Tips for FPL Gameweek 6...
What we learned from Gameweek 5, FGPE index and fixtures to target...
Hello everyone. After a fascinating batch of midweek fixtures it’s time to look ahead again. In this newsletter you will find an analysis of what we learned from Gameweek 5 and a preview of Gameweek 6.
As always, the aim is to give you information to win your mini-league, so not much point dwelling on just how good Man City’s Erling Haaland (FWD, £11.9m) is. We’d just say this - if you don’t have him now, on every measure available he looks ridiculous and it might be worth closing out that particular loss…
Here are some other quick thoughts from Gameweek 5:
Wilfried Zaha (MID, £7.1m) - keeps delivering FPL returns and is still backed up by the underlying stats. Fifth-best points-scorer among midfielders, fourth of ALL Premier League players in expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes and third (behind only Haaland and Gabriel Jesus) when considering combined xG and xG Assisted (expected assists) per 90 minutes according to Statsbomb. In short, based on what we’ve seen so far, these returns should be repeatable.
Aleksander Mitrovic (FWD, £6.7m) - don’t be put off bringing the Serbian in because of his price rise or the fact you might have “missed the boat” on his goalscoring. He scored a goal a game in the Championship last season and is threatening to repeat the trick in the Premier League. The Fulham striker has had 20 open-play shots so far this season, more than any other player, and the vast majority of those have been in the penalty area. He now stands third in the xG standings for the season. Tottenham and a wobbly-looking Chelsea are next up, then the fixtures start to look very enticing.
Southampton - don’t sleep on Southampton’s improvement. They were unlucky to lose 1-0 against a rejuvenated Man United side, beat Leicester City and took home all three points against an admittedly under-par Chelsea in Gameweek 5. The addition of Armel Bella-Kotchap (DEF, £4.5m) has steadied things at the back, meaning wing-back Kyle Walker-Peters (DEF, £4.5m) could become a fixture-based option with attacking upside.
Further forward, Mohamed Elyounoussi (MID, £5.4m) has been quietly impressive and a big underperformer based on his underlying stats. The Norwegian was comfortably the Saints’ biggest threat against Chelsea, registering three shots and an xG of 0.51. Across the season his xG and xG Assisted is 0.27 per 90 minutes - in the same ball-park as Man United’s Marcus Rashford (MID, £6.3m) and Brighton’s Leandro Trossard (MID, £6.5m), and better than Chelsea’s Mason Mount (MID, £7.7m).
Chelsea defence - nine goals conceded in the last four games is not what you expect from a team challenging for the Champions League places. The stats are really worrying here, with Chelsea conceding 2.8 “clear shots” per 90 minutes, according to StatsBomb - the fourth highest figure in the Premier League. A “clear” shot is defined as one where there is nobody between the shooter and the goalkeeper, and so logically teams who concede more will, on balance, leak more goals.
Liverpool defence - Liverpool looked all over the place at times against an impressive Newcastle side at Anfield on Wednesday evening. The Reds have conceded seven goals in five games so far this season and have been far from comfortable in most of their outings. This defensive regression from last season is supported by the underlying statistics - they have conceded three clear shots per game on average. They were lucky not to concede a second against Newcastle when Alexander Isak (FWD, £7m) had a beautiful finish disallowed for a marginal offside. Everton (A) and Wolves (H) might give some respite - as might the return of Joel Matip - but then it’s Chelsea (A), Brighton (H), Arsenal (A) and Man City (H).
Mo Salah (MID, £13m)
We tweeted the above on Thursday to highlight the performance of Player A and Player B. Player A is Raheem Sterling (MID, £10m) and Player B is Mo Salah. That gap in ownership is already closing. Salah has been transferred out by more than 200,000 teams ahead of Gameweek 6 and Sterling brought in by more than 200,000. Salah’s underlying stats are decent and he ranks sixth for xG and xG assisted per 90 minutes behind Haaland, Jesus, Zaha, Firmino and Rodrigo (and alongside Sterling, obviously). But when you cost £13 million you need to be delivering better than this to offer value. One of Salah’s assists against Newcastle was a lucky deflection off his back. On the plus-side, he didn’t score in Gameweek 5 and Haaland got a hat-trick yet Salah finished just 7 points behind the Norwegian striker. That small gap highlights how the points scoring system in FPL is balanced against forwards and why we advocated a ZeroForward strategy at the start of the season. Nonetheless, the No Salah debate that we also outlined at the start of the season is more relevant than ever. Everton looks an attractive match-up this week but after that Liverpool face a string of strong defences. That could be the time to sell if you still own Salah…
The FGPE index
Talking of value, the latest FGPE index is below. This is our guide to who is offering the best value per £million spent in FPL. You can find an explainer here.
A quick thought on the rankings this week. Erling Haaland is only eighth despite being the top points scorer in FPL by 20 points. Why? Two reasons. Firstly, because at his price of £11.9 million he has to do a lot to offer value compared to say, Dean Henderson, who costs nearly a third of what the Man City forward does (incidentally Haaland would still rank eight at his original price of £11.5 million, the price rise makes little difference). Secondly, the FGPE tracks the weekly upside that players offer compared to others in their position. Haaland’s upside has been hit by being outscored by Roberto Firmino last week and the FPL scoring system. On that latter point, consider this. Haaland scored 17 points for his hat-tricks in Gameweek 4 and 5 but Joao Cancelo, his teammate, was only 5 points behind in Gameweek 5 with a single goal and clean sheet. As explained above, Mo Salah was only 7 points behind and he didn’t even score. If you remember all the way back to Gameweek 1, Fabian Schar got 15 points for his goal, clean sheet and three bonus points. Henderson is top after getting 14 points for saving a penalty and keeping a clean sheet. Being a forward is hard work in FPL….
Having said that, the FGPE is saying that Haaland should be in your team, which is pretty obvious after two hat-tricks in a row. He is the top-ranked forward behind Firmino, who missed a week due to injury and whose starting role for Liverpool is uncertain now that Darwin is back from suspension…
Match-ups to target
Finally, based on the Statsbomb graphics and data below (which show goals and chances created for attacks, goals and chances conceded by defences) these are the match-ups we would suggest targeting in Gameweek 6. Bolds mean target, italics mean avoid
Man City attack and defence v Aston Villa attack and defence
Liverpool attack and defence v Everton attack and defence
Arsenal attack v Man United defence
Tottenham attack v Fulham defence
Newcastle attack v Crystal Palace defence
Brighton defence v Leicester attack
West Ham defence v Chelsea attack
Wolves defence v Southampton attack
Best and worst attacks
Best and worst defences
We hope you enjoyed the newsletter. Please share Fantasy Gameweek with others if you did. Best of luck for Gameweek 6!
Tom and Graham
We are hitting that part of the season where Champions League starts and the big teams usually rotate. I assume most of us have a couple of Man City players, so we should expect them to be rested for some matches. I'll start looking to improve my bench now. I like the Southampton shouts. They look a more physically impressive unit than I've seen in prior seasons. Brighton also have a decent pair of fixtures coming up. West Ham are intriguing. They've spent big with a good lump spent on defenders. Lots to ponder.