Introducing ZeroForward...
An FPL strategy for 2022/23
Hello everyone and welcome to Fantasy Gameweek, particularly to all the new subscribers who have signed up since we announced our launch last week.
Today we want to introduce you to a Fantasy Premier League strategy for 2022/23 that we think will make you competitive with minimal thought - ZeroForward.
ZeroForward is based on the ZeroRB strategy that has emerged in fantasy NFL in the US. It is, in short, a de-prioritisation of the forward position, just as in NFL it means de-prioritising the running back position. It means spending as little money as possible on the forward position so you can spend more elsewhere.
The main reason for this is that the forward position has consistently delivered poor value for money in FPL compared to goalkeepers, defenders and midfielders in recent years. For example, if you pair this season’s prices with last season’s performance (a crude metric, but enlightening nonetheless) then the top value forward is Ivan Tovey in 74th place overall, which is remarkable. Toney offers 19.9 points per million for the season compared to 32 for top-ranked Alisson.
The main factors behind this are the players and their performances, team tactics (attacking fullbacks and 4-3-3 formations) and also the nature of FPL and its rules. Put simply, forwards score fewer points for a goal (four compared to five for a midfielder and six for a defender), don’t get any points for a clean sheet (even midfielders get one) and tend to score fewer bonus points (Ronaldo, fourth, and Vardy, ninth, were the only two forwards in the top ten last season for total bonus points). Despite this, forwards are priced higher than a player of comparative quality in a different position. Another quirk of the forward position is that you only need to play a minimum of one each week, compared to three defenders and two midfielders.
ZeroForward is about spending your £100 million wisely and looking to take advantage of these trends with your bets.
So how does this strategy work and look in practice? Our guide is to look to build a team that will start the season in a 5-4-1 formation and spend £20 million or less on the forward position overall. If you have doubt’s about 5-4-1 as a formation, check out this great Twitter thread on how the overall winner of FPL last season used it during the run-in…
The minimum you can spend on the forward position this season is £13.5 million because the cheapest players in the position are priced at £4.5 million. We don’t advocate that as none of the players in that price bracket are guaranteed starters and one has to play each week. We think £20 million or less is a useful guide. However, you might want to put your own variation on the ZeroForward strategy by going with Haaland or Kane as your main striker and then spending £4.5 million on the remaining two players.
So how does a ZeroForward team look? Here is one example:
If you wanted Haaland, then you could go for this:
We will go into more specific options for ZeroForward as we get nearer the season. However, for now we hope this gives you some ideas and thoughts for the season ahead. Let us know what you think and which players are standing out for you right now…
Best
Graham and Tom
Good plan, but how does 5-4-1 compare with 4-5-1? Is an extra midfielder not a better bet?