Tips for FPL Gameweek 11
What we learned, rankings and more...
Hello and welcome to the latest edition of Fantasy Gameweek. This week we have included “what we learned” and our rankings in one handy newsletter for you ahead of Gameweek 11…
We start with Tom on what we learned from Gameweek 10, then it’s into the rankings with Graham. A reminder - the deadline for transfers is 18.30 UK time on Friday night.
What we learned from Gameweek 10…
Last week’s edition of “what we learned” focused squarely on differential players, with three of the five delivering attacking returns.
This week we will help you look slightly further along the horizon to Gameweek 12, when the Premier League’s top two sides – Manchester City and Arsenal – have no fixture. Most FPL teams will have at least four players from City and Arsenal, and some will have six.
If you want to retain your key assets while ensuring you have at least 11 players with an opportunity to haul in points in Gameweek 12, it pays to plan ahead.
So, these are players who you might want to bring in as alternatives. They have impressed recently and have the talent and opportunity to deliver big FPL returns next week and beyond.
Chelsea are back…and so is Mason Mount
Make no bones about it, Chelsea were woeful at times at the start of the season, particularly in defence. The departure of Thomas Tuchel and the arrival of former Brighton manager Graham Potter has had the desired effect so far, with the Blues notching four wins and a draw in his first five games in charge.
If you’re replacing a City or Arsenal player this week, you’ll more than likely have a decent chunk of cash to invest – and Chelsea look exactly the sort of team you want to back right now.
This month Chelsea have played four times in all competitions, scoring 10 and conceding a solitary goal. During that run, various players have impressed, including Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (FWD, £9.1m) (three goals in four games) and Reece James (DEF, £6.1m) (one goal, one assist and three clean sheets).
While the return of defensive solidity brings the likes of Marc Cucurella (DEF, £5.1m) and Trevoh Chalobah (DEF, £4.7m) on to our radar as value options, we’re backing Mason Mount (MID, £7.6m) to continue his impressive recent run. The England attacking midfielder has three assists in his last two games and remains the key player in this talented Chelsea attack.
He has also been consistently threatening this season (even during the worst of Chelsea’s struggles), is a near-certain starter, and should benefit from some regression to the mean in the goalscoring department.
His next opponents are Aston Villa (A), Brentford (H) and Manchester United (H) – three defences this in-form Chelsea side will expect to prize open.
Making the most of a good (injury) crisis…
If Chelsea are back to something representing the Champions League shoe-in we expected at the start of the campaign, Liverpool most definitely are not.
The Reds continue to look a mess defensively, shipping 12 goals in eight Premier League games, conceding among the most clear-cut chances in the division and letting in three goals in back-to-back contests against Brighton and Arsenal, respectively.
Injuries are also mounting up with Luis Diaz (MID, £8m), Trent Alexander-Arnold (DEF, £7.3m) and Joel Matip (DEF, £5.9m) all potentially unavailable this week.
While that might not bode well for Liverpool’s fading title chances – and leave their ambitions to even make the top four open to question – remember that value is king in FPL. As Winston Churchill famously said, never waste a good crisis.
Next up is the rampant Man City at Anfield, but after that Liverpool face West Ham (H), Nottingham Forest (A) and Leeds United (H).
That’s a very appealing run to rediscover a bit of form. The defence is still too unreliable, but Roberto Firmino (FWD, £8m) has hit a rich seam recently, bagging six goals, three assists and 50 FPL points in his last five Premier League games.
With Diaz expected to be sidelined until Christmas, Firmino looks like the value pick of this Liverpool attack – particularly if manager Jurgen Klopp decides to pick all four of Firmino, Mo Salah (FWD, £12.7m), Darwin Nunez (FWD, £8.8m) and Diogo Jota (FWD, £8.9m).
If you’re holding off on a transfer this week, keep an eagle eye on that Liverpool v City game on Sunday for signs of who is likely to get the nod the following week. If Salah looks back to form again after his sensational Champions League hat-trick against Rangers, he will offer genuine differential value in the coming weeks.
Knowing me, knowing you…Zaha?
Crystal Palace have had a middling defence (12 goals conceded in eight games) and middling attack (10 goals scored in eight games) so far this season.
However, with mediocre opposition coming up – Leicester (A), Wolves (H), Everton (A) and Southampton (H) – Patrick Vieira’s men are more than worth a look.
None of Palace’s defenders offer a consistent attacking threat, while the Eagles have only managed one clean sheet all season. That combination means they are difficult to trust, even with an appealing set of fixtures coming up.
Our focus therefore turns to Palace’s forward line. Wilfried Zaha (MID, £7.4m), the beating heart of this side, will inevitably be a prime target for FPL managers this week, while we remain huge fans of Eberechi Eze (MID, £5.5m), who has started every game this season and bagged the winner against Leeds last weekend.
However, with a firm eye on value, Odsonne Edouard (FWD, £5.4m) and winger Michael Olise (MID, £5.4m) could really stand out. The former has started and scored in his last two games and appears to have nailed down the central striker role, while the latter is hugely talented, has started the last two and bagged an assist against Leeds.
Go on Patson…
Leicester City are still sat in the bottom three – something that surely has to change given the talent at manager Brendan Rodgers’ disposal. An impressive 4-0 win against Forest proved something of a false dawn as the Foxes fell to Gary O’Neil’s resurgent Bournemouth side 2-1 the following week.
As with Palace, it’s hard to trust a defence that’s conceded 24 goals this season – four more than a Bournemouth side that lost 9-0 against Liverpool and statistically the worst record in the league.
That said, the Foxes’s full-backs, James Justin (DEF, £4.3m) and Timothy Castagne (DEF, £4.4m), offer a genuine attacking threat. We’ll need to see evidence of a serious defensive improvement to trust either, however.
It’s therefore again attack-minded players who appeal, and while James Maddison (MID, £8.3m) is undoubtedly the pick, striker Patson Daka (FWD, £5.7m) could well be the value option.
There is undoubtedly risk here given Jamie Vardy has been Leicester’s talisman for the last decade. However, Daka has started three of the last four, netting three goals, one assist and 21 points in the process. He ranks fifth in the league for expected goal involvements per 90 minutes (xG and xA), behind only Erling Haaland (FWD, £12.2m), Callum Wilson (FWD, £7.3m), Harry Kane (FWD, £11.4) and Gabriel Jesus (FWD, £8m).
He also has serious pedigree, having scored 27 goals in 28 games for RB Salzburg in 2020/21 before leaving for the King Power stadium.
Daka’s had a season to get used to the Premier League and, with Vardy now at 35, could be ready to become the new focal point of this Leicester attack.
Rankings…
Now for the rankings for Gameweek 11. As usual, players are ranked through our FGPE index, which looks at value, upside and the opportunity this weekend based on the fixture. First we look at the players, then we have listed the rankings for the best attacks and defences to target and avoid to help your decisions too. The rankings are based on FPL points and FiveThirtyEight’s data on teams. There are some thoughts on the rankings at the end…
Attacks to target and avoid (best first)
Man City
Arsenal
Liverpool
Tottenham
Chelsea
Brighton
Man United
Newcastle
West Ham
Wolves
Leicester
Crystal Palace
Fulham
Bournemouth
Brentford
Southampton
Leeds
Aston Villa
Everton
Forest
Defences to target and avoid (best first)
Arsenal
Chelsea
Tottenham
Wolves
Brighton
West Ham
Fulham
Leicester
Crystal Palace
Bournemouth
Newcastle
Man United
Southampton
Forest
Aston Villa
Brentford
Man City
Everton
Leeds
Liverpool
Quick thoughts…
Erling Haaland continues to reign supreme at the top of our rankings. However, we know he won’t be top for Gameweek 12 because Man City and Arsenal don’t play. If you have him, we recommend benching him rather than selling him - you will lose money as he has gone up in value so it will cost you more to buy him back. Elsewhere among the forwards, Roberto Firmino looks more attractive than ever after two goals against Rangers in midweek and the injury to Luis Diaz, which makes rotation less likely. Liverpool play Man City this week but then play West Ham at home, Forest away and Leeds at home, as Tom wrote in what we learned. Firmino ranks sixth for expected goals per 90mins in the Premier League behind Haaland, Callum Wilson, Harry Kane, Aleksander Mitrovic and Gabriel Jesus (fourth if you exclude penalties). He really is one of the best forwards in the league right now…
Talking of Liverpool, Trent Alexander-Arnold and a glut of other defenders are injured or suspended, so lots of FPL teams are having to rethink their backlines. Look no further than William Saliba for a potential replacement this week according to our rankings. He may be a centre-back rather than an attacking full-back, but Saliba has looked a threat and skilful when forward for set pieces so does offer the potential for attacking points. However, remember he won’t play in Gameweek 12 as Arsenal have no match. Ashley Young is also interesting. Chelsea are difficult opposition for Aston Villa but they have only conceded one goal in their last three matches and Young has a goal or assist in his latest three appearances. In fact, in the four matches he has played this season he has scored 2, 5, 8 and 11 points. The first of those was a 1-1 draw against Man City. He is an attacking defender in a team that is better than it was at the start of the season…
Sticking with improved teams, yes that really is a Bournemouth goalkeeper in sixth place in the rankings. Since losing 9-0 to Liverpool and sacking Scott Parker, Bournemouth have kept two clean sheets in five matches with Neto picking up save and bonus points along the way… Jose Sa and Dean Henderson remain high in the rankings thanks to the enormous scores they brought in earlier in the season when they saved penalties. However, Forest’s defence is one of the worst in the league and difficult to trust, but Sa is the second top-scoring goalkeeper overall behind Nick Pope and Wolves, who play Forest, rank as one of the best defences in the league this weekend…
There are some fascinating options in midfield between the prices of Alexis Mac Allister at £5.7 million and Jarrod Bowen at £8.2 million, who is just out of the top 100 players at 128th after a really disappointing start to the season, but who has scored 14 and 7 points in his last two matches. We wrote in Mispriced players piece before the season started that Bowen offered great value if he could carry on his performances from last season, when he also had a slow start, and I expect him to rise up the rankings…The wealth of midfield options means Antony is only 53rd in the rankings despite scoring in each of his three league matches for Manchester United so far. He is yet to score more than one bonus point in a match, which is what has held him back, but his ownership of 8.5 per cent of FPL teams is surely going to rise too. Brighton’s midfielders are really intriguing with Brentford and Forest up next (although they then face Man City) and a new manager who seems keen to play a more attacking style than Graham Potter. Leandro Trossard leads the way in our rankings and I would avoid Mac Allister given he relies on penalties for much of his points and plays in a deeper role than Trossard and Pascal Gross. Phil Foden and Gabriel Martinelli are good players in good teams. They are smart investments but wait until Gameweek 13 to bring them in given they don’t play in Gameweek 11. The same goes for their teammates like Bukayo Saka, who continues to rise up the rankings and to my eye looks like he is making the leap this season to the next level of talent…
That’s it for this week. Best of luck for Gameweek 11. Please get in touch with any questions or feedback…
Tom and Graham