The Risers and Fallers: Saka up, Chelsea down

What we learned from Gameweek 24

Gameweek 25 is big, with Brentford, Brighton, Manchester United and Newcastle United – four teams boasting high-value, highly-owned FPL assets – having no fixture.

What’s more, first-placed Arsenal and Liverpool have double Gameweeks, as do Everton and Wolves.

That all points to this being a prime opportunity to use your Free Hit (assuming you still have it). You want exposure to those double Gameweek players right now, but you probably don’t want to shift permanently away from the assets that have delivered so far this campaign.

If you’ve already blown your Free Hit, the aim of the game will likely be getting 11 players on the field.

While this newsletter has an eye on that crucial double Gameweek, we first head to Old Trafford and the end of one player’s reign as an FPL captaincy lock…

Risers…

Marcus Rashford (MID, £7.3m)

What more can we say about Marcus Rashford? Fantasy Gameweek flagged the Manchester United forward (classed as a midfielder in FPL) as a bounceback candidate in our pre-season previews, but even we didn’t expect the explosion of goals and fantasy points we have seen in 2022/23.

Rashford now has 14 goals, four assists and 151 FPL points in just 22 Premier League starts this season (he has also come off the bench twice this season). That makes him the top-scoring midfielder in FPL by 19 points and third top-scoring player overall.

Rashford’s record over the last ten fixtures is outrageous. He has scored in all but one of those games, registering ten goals, two assists and 89 FPL points at 8.9 points per game.

It’s no surprise the England winger is outperforming his underlying Impect data, but a post-shot expected goals (xG) figure of 10.9 shows he isn’t far off. His offensive Impect score is better than 91% of midfielders and attackers, which puts him ninth among those position groups. That suggests you might want to factor in a bit of mean regression for the rest of the campaign, but Rashford is clearly a must-have in FPL given his price and form.

Perhaps the greatest compliment you can make to Rashford is he is now in direct competition with Erling Haaland (FWD, £12.2m) for the captain’s armband in FPL. Over the last ten games, the Norwegian has registered 60 FPL points at 6 points per game perfectly respectable but well below Rashford’s stellar returns.

To put it another way, if you’d captained Rashford over that stretch over Haaland, you’d have scored 58 more points than most of your rivals. Food for thought (once we move beyond United’s blank Gameweek of course)…

Bukayo Saka (MID, £8.4m)

Another player we backed to have a breakout FPL season, Saka has taken his game to a new level since the World Cup and now stands second among midfielders in FPL and fifth overall. 

His consistency has been remarkable. Across 23 games, Saka has delivered an attacking return in all but seven fixtures, registering nine goals, nine assists and 132 FPL points in total. 

Like Rashford, Saka is slightly outperforming his xG, but not to the extent you’d be concerned about the sustainability of his returns. The fact he has penalty duties doesn’t hurt either.

Unlike Rashford, who has no fixture in Gameweek 25, Saka should be in the frame for your FPL side, with Arsenal doubling up against a porous Leicester defence at the King Power Stadium on Saturday before a home fixture against a more resilient but still extremely limited Everton side.

The fact Rashford isn’t playing coupled with Haaland only have a single fixture, away at Bournemouth, makes Saka a genuine captaincy candidate. 

In the short-term, those who don’t already own Saka will likely be using their Free Hit chip (assuming you still have it) to secure his services this Gameweek. Beyond that, it’s worth plotting a course to get him in your side sooner rather than later – particularly given Gabriel Martinelli’s (MID, £6.5m) alarming dip in form.

Cody Gakpo (MID, £7.8m)

Cody Gakpo is a striker in pretty much everyone’s eyes but FPL. Given his classification as a midfielder, low price tag and regular minutes since arriving at Liverpool, it is surprising it has taken this long for him to feature in our previews.

That tells you just how far Liverpool have fallen in recent times, but back-to-back wins and back-to-back clean sheets mean FPL managers would have been eyeing up Jurgen Klopp’s men regardless. 

The fact their double Gameweek fixtures are Crystal Palace (A) followed by relegation-threatened Wolves (H) means those with a Free Hit will be deploying it in their droves to double or even triple-up on the former league winners. 

Back-to-back goals for Gakpo, supported by strong underlying data in those games and his relatively low price, suggests he should be your first pick-up. Darwin Nunez (£8.7m) and Mo Salah (£12.7m) have also looked lively in recent weeks and merit consideration.

Elsewhere, there are reasons to be cautious – particularly when it comes to Liverpool’s defence. Two clean sheets is clearly progress, but the first was against an Everton side with Ellis Simms (FWD, £4.5m) up front and the second against a Newcastle team down to ten men for most of the game should temper expectations.

Furthermore, Liverpool were lucky to leave with a clean sheet. Even a man down, Newcastle delivered plenty of attacking threat, registering an xG of 1.38 – just a smidge below Liverpool’s 1.39.

Liverpool also just conceded five to Real Madrid, suggesting their defensive frailties are far from behind them. While neither Palace nor Wolves have a Vinicius Jnr in their ranks, both are comfortable sitting deep and hitting teams on the break. In their most recent meeting earlier this month, Wolves hammered Liverpool 3-0.

Fallers…

Leeds attackers

To coin a popular phrase, Leeds United are all over the place. Since recording impressive back-to-back wins against Liverpool and Bournemouth in October, they haven’t won a Premier League game. 

During that 11-match baron spell, Leeds have scored just nine goals and conceded 17. Perhaps most worryingly, they have failed to score in four of the last five games – a run of fixtures that included Brentford (H), Nottingham Forest (A) and Everton (A). 

Their underlying data doesn’t make for pretty reading either. Against Everton, their post-shot xG was 0 – because they failed to have a single shot on goal.

A home fixture against Southampton would have looked like the perfect tonic before the Saints’ battling 1-0 win at Stamford Bridge in Gameweek 24. It now looks like a much more difficult fixture.

After that, they face Chelsea (A) and Brighton (H) before a crunch relegation match-up against Wolves in Gameweek 28. 

There is attacking talent in this side – in particular Wilfried Gnonto (FWD, £5.1m) and Patrick Bamford (FWD, £7.2m) – but Leeds seem to have little plan to get them the ball in advantageous positions.

Chelsea attackers

Speaking of Chelsea, we warned you that spending hundreds of millions of pounds on an array of talented players might take a while to pay dividends. 

Last weekend’s 1-0 reversal against struggling Southampton represented a new low for Graham Potter’s men, who haven’t won in four fixtures, scoring just one goal during that spell.

If you picked Reece James (DEF, £5.8m) on the back of his appearance in last week’s Risers, apologies – we didn’t recognise the possibility he’d be left out of the squad altogether. That said, over the rest of the season we still expect James to prove he’s one of the bets attacking full-backs in the league, and Chelsea have at least looked robust defensively.

It is going forward where Chelsea have really struggled. The underlying stats give some reason for hope that things will turn for Potter. Against Southampton, their xG was 2.45, pointing to the fact they are creating a series of clear openings. However, a post-shot xG of just 0.33 tells you all you need to know about their failings.

Not having a recognised goalscorer is seriously hurting Chelsea, and even a relatively soft-looking fixture list can’t prevent them slipping into the Fallers this week.

Leicester City players

FPL sometimes comes at you fast, and that’s certainly true for those who lumped into in-form Leicester before Sunday’s fixture at Old Trafford. Despite starting the game brightly, the Foxes were eventually blown away by Erik Ten Hag’s in-form side.

While we still have faith in Leicester’s attackers, and in particular the mercurial James Maddison (MID, £8.1m), this was a timely reminder that they are by no means a reliable source of fantasy points. 

We still think they offer value, but the nature of their defeat against United means they have to be given a small downgrade.

A home fixture against Arsenal is another huge test, followed by a big trip to the south coast to face Southampton. If you haven’t bought into Leicester attackers yet, you’ll likely want to hold off for at least the coming Gameweek.

Thanks for reading

Tom