The 50 most interesting FPL players
Rankings for Gameweek 1 and some thoughts on data...
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Welcome to Fantasy Gameweek’s FPL rankings. This is our guide to who we think are the most interesting players in Fantasy Premier League ahead of Gameweek 1.
What do we mean by interesting? The players that could define Gameweek 1, are being talked about by other FPL players, offer striking value or have big questions around them. This is a way of presenting the options to you, letting you know which players could be relevant, and having some fun doing it. These rankings are subjective and have been put together using data and our judgement. Hopefully you find the list useful and enjoy reading it.
Before we start, here is a quick guide to the rankings, some of the principles behind them, and some thoughts on data.
We debated how to present these rankings and concluded that putting the players in some order of how we thought they would perform or offer value was foolhardy. This is not an exact science and we don’t want to pretend it is. Sport is chaotic, uncertain and involves luck. You should aim to embrace that uncertainty and build a team that gives you the best chance of plotting a path through the chaos.
The use of data has become prevalent among FPL players, but it shouldn’t be seen as the endpoint or the answer, rather as a way to help you ask the right questions. The data you choose to pay attention to is subjective and you can pick the numbers you want to build an argument. Data can be used to make a point just as words can.
Some of the data itself is also subjective. Take xG, a stat that has become widely used. A subjective judgement has been made in that statistic on the quality of the chance. xG is a great way of measuring how well a team did at creating chances. But shooting and finishing ability are also fundamental football skills, particularly for forwards. In addition, xG doesn’t identify the quantity of chances. So missing one very good chance can rank the same as missing three good chances. That’s important for FPL, because while player A could only have ever scored one goal, player B could have scored three.
In NFL fantasy, where some trends are a few years ahead of FPL, data has become so widespread that using it is not really an advantage anymore. What has become more important is identifying which players are most likely to outperform the data.
One of the best things I have listened to on data recently is Michael Lewis, the author of Moneyball, interviewing Bill James, the baseball writer who is effectively the godfather of the use of data in sports and the Moneyball strategy, which was used by Billy Beane and the Oakland Athletics in Major League Baseball. James feels that the use of data has gone too far and people are using it to express a certainty that just isn’t possible in sport. The podcast is worth your time and you can listen to it here:
Having said that, here are some basic facts about FPL that are important to remember:
-Every team starts the season with £100 million. You win by turning that into the most points.
-A forward scores four points for a goal, a midfielder gets five and a defender gets six. This means a defender scores 50 per cent more points for a goal than a forward.
-A midfielder who gets an assist and whose team keeps a clean sheet gets the same number of points as a forward who scores a goal.
-Goalkeepers and defenders get four points for a clean sheet, a midfielder gets one and a forward gets none.
-If a defender gets a clean sheet and a goal they would score at least 12 points. A forward would need to be involved in three goals to equal or better that - one goal and two assists, for instance.
-Only two of the top ten bonus point scorers last season were forwards.
-These numbers demonstrate why attacking defenders are so valuable and why forwards can offer poor value for money. This is why we are advocating a ZeroForward approach for 2022/23, which you can read about here.
With that said, let’s get into the rankings. 50 players are covered…
Jesus, ARS, For, £8m - owned by more than 70 per cent of FPL teams that have been picked so far, which is extraordinary and makes him a vital player in Gameweek 1. His high ownership reflects the fact he was priced as a Man City back-up but is now Arsenal’s main striker and has scored goals in pre-season. Price is likely to drop quickly if early performances disappoint, so be on alert (Arsenal lost 3-0 at Palace last season, Jesus has scored only 17 goals across the last two years and never more than 14 in a single season - there are warning signs). Could be your single striker in ZeroForward strategy with two budget options on the bench.
Darwin, LIV, For, £9m - looked electric in Community Shield and a strong start could prompt a rethink of which Liverpool players to have, making Salah expendable, and reshape entire teams.
Haaland, MCI, For, £11.5m - can he and City hit the ground running? Ownership among FPL teams has dropped and Haaland is now in less than half of teams after missing chances in Community Shield and generally looking a bit rusty in pre-season. However, the prospect of watching him in the Premier League is still exciting and he could quickly become a must-pick.
Robertson, LIV, Def, £7m - looks value at this price after stellar 2021/2022 and is interesting differential to his teammate below, who is owned by far more FPL teams. Does he look to overlap and get forward more than Alexander-Arnold in this Liverpool set-up?
Alexander-Arnold, LIV, Def, £7.5m - ranked behind Robertson due to higher price, but picked in well over half of FPL teams.
Salah, LIV, Mid, £13m - probably sacrilege to have him this low, but this list is about who is interesting, not who is best. Anyway, looked back to top form in Community Shield and is likely to be the most captained player in Gameweek 1, meaning his performance will define the week for many leagues.
Perisic, TOT, Def, £5.5m - most popular newcomer after Haaland, featuring in 29 per cent of teams. Comments from Conte suggest he isn’t fully fit though. Does he play? How long does he play if so? How much does he look to get forward?
James, CHE, Def, £6m - if he continues his performances from last season and Chelsea are solid at the back (they weren’t in pre-season) then will quickly be must-pick…
Dalot, MUN, Def, £4.5m - could be attacking full-back in decent team at budget price.
Kane, TOT, Fwd, £11.5m - if he outperforms Haaland or Son expect a surge in ownership next week. Kane v Haaland is a fascinating FPL conundrum this season for many teams.
Cancelo, MCI, Def, £7m - fifth highest owned player in the game behind Jesus, Salah, Alexander-Arnold and Haaland. However, City have started slowly in recent seasons and Cancelo struggled against Salah on Sunday.
Ward, LEI, Gk, £4m - could end up in most teams if he really is Leicester’s new number one. UPDATE: Iverson, LEI, Gk, £4m could also take this role so keep an eye on Leicester team news ahead of Friday’s deadline…
N. Williams, NFO, Def, £4m - already in a quarter of teams as an attractive budget option at the back. Gone from Liverpool back-up to starting for Forest. Can Forest take their defensive form in the Championship to the Premier League? Newcastle away is an interesting first test.
Rashford, MUN, Mid, £6.5m - if he brings his promising pre-season form and gets back to the level of two seasons ago when he scored 11 goals and registered 11 assists then is a bargain at this price.
Son, TOT, Mid, £12m - we know what we are getting, which is why he isn’t higher. Will be one of the top FPL scorers again, but can he justify an increased price after starting at £10m last year?
Bowen, WHU, Mid, £8.5m - difficult start versus City but scored twice in this fixture last season. Has played upfront in some pre-season matches and will be interesting to see where he starts. Could offer real value-for-money if builds on 2021/22’s 12 goals and 17 assists as Bowen is priced as if last year was a one-off.
Greenwood, LEE, For, £4.5m - likely to be most people’s third striker if he really does get a chance to play. However, high ownership (25 per cent-plus) means price could drop next week if he doesn’t get minutes, so be careful.
Luis Diaz, LIV, Mid, £8m - like Darwin, would prompt a rethink of Liverpool and midfield options if he starts well. The risk of rotation was behind his £8m price but that has dissipated with Mane gone. However, pre-season reports suggest that he is yet to kick on after a promising start to his Liverpool career.
Bailey, AVL, Mid, £5m - a popular budget midfield pick as pre-season form suggests he could return to levels he showed at Leverkusen rather than the player who only scored one goal and played 750 minutes last season after joining Villa. If he can get to Leverkusen level (9 goals in final season there) then is mispriced.
Andreas, FUL, Mid, £4.5m - another popular budget option as priced as Man Utd back-up and now likely to start in attacking role. Tough start v Liverpool though and can he actually do it in Premier League?
Martial, MUN, For, £7m - could be Man United’s main striker if Ronaldo doesn’t play.
Walker, MCI, Def, £5m - looks like he could offer a value route into City’s defence. One of Guardiola’s key players.
Alisson, LIV, Gk, £5.5m - offers the best value in FPL based on last season’s points and this season’s price - which equates to 32 points per million.
Cash, AVL, Def, £5m - second on that value metric behind Alisson and finished last season impressively as attacking full-back.
Grealish, MCI, Mid, £7m - ahead of the man below because it will be intriguing to see how he links up Haaland and if he can become as productive as he was at Villa before joining City for £100m, because he is a bargain at this price if so. Same applies to Mahrez and Foden, but they are more expensive.
De Bruyne, MCI, Mid, £12m - only in 15 per cent of teams but could swiftly remind everyone that he is one of the greatest ever players in FPL.
Zinchenko, ARS, Def, £5m - gone from City back-up to Arsenal starter, so looks mispriced. Does he play as full-back or in midfield? How far forward does he get?
Dewsbury-Hall, LEI, Mid, £5m - promising pre-season and would be a big beneficiary if Maddison leaves.
Sancho, MUN, Mid, £7.5m - three goals and lots of promise in pre-season. Would be higher in this list but Rashford looks a more attractive option given cheaper price and Sancho also missed last pre-season game with illness.
Sterling, CHE, Mid, £10m - how does he look in new role at new club?
Neto, WOL, Mid, £5.5m - popular budget option in midfielder (Neto is in one in five teams at present) after promising pre-season
Sessegnon, TOT, Def, £4.5m - could start the season at left wing-back ahead of Perisic, making him attractive option.
Maddison, LEI, Mid, £8m - is he going to stay at Leicester?
Mount, CHE, Mid, £8m - looks like he could be in Chelsea’s first-choice front-three alongside Sterling and Havertz.
Saka, ARS, Mid, £8m - 71 points to 114 points to 179 points in his last three seasons. If he improves again will offer great value.
Mitrovic, FUL, For, £6.5m - has failed to turn Championship goals into Premier League goals before. Can this season be different?
Johnson, NFO, For, £6m - another attractive low-price option for forward position and ZeroForward strategy. Lots of potential and takes set pieces.
Solanke, BOU, For, £6m - a third striker who starred in Championship last season and another player on ZeroForward radar.
Mendy, CHE, Gk, £5m - the most-picked goalkeeper at the moment and in more than one in five teams. One of a collection of goalkeepers who looks value at £5m.
Ramsdale, ARS, Gk, £5m - another of the £5m goalkeepers.
Trippier, NEW, Def, £5m - can he get back to the form he showed for Newcastle before getting injured last season? Has FPL pedigree with Tottenham too. Could be great value.
Lingard, NFO, Mid, £6m - how does he look for new club? Was brilliant FPL option at West Ham while on loan.
Patterson, EVE, Def, £4m - if starts against Chelsea then could be cheap, starting full-back.
Ward-Prowse, SOU, Mid, £6.5m - has been so consistent for Southampton, scoring 159 and 156 points in the last two seasons respectively. If he does that again then at this price point Ward-Prowse offers value. Ranks 30th overall and first for midfielders for points per million when measuring price against last season’s points.
Martinelli, ARS, Mid, £6m - attractive option at this price after six goals and seven assists last season plus promising early fixtures for Arsenal. Unclear if he starts though.
Coutinho, AVL, Mid, £7m - will we get the Coutinho who scored and got two assists against Leeds last season or the one who frequently disappeared in other games?
Bruno Guimaraes, NEW, Mid, £6m - will be interesting to see if he can build on a promising start after joining last season.
Zaha, CRY, Mid, £7m - such a talented player and has caused Arsenal problems lots of problems in previous matches. Could become really popular if Palace start well.
Taylor, NFO, For, £4.5m - an attractive option for final forward slot if he gets playing time.
Ronaldo, MUN, For, £10.5m - what if he stays and Man United are better? Ended last season with 18 goals but is £2m cheaper this year. Whatever happens, his future is also important for Rashford, Sancho and Martial’s prospects.