Ten quick facts on how to play the blank/double Gameweek
Gameweek 25 preview
Hello everyone and welcome to the latest edition of Fantasy Gameweek…
Given that this is a vital gameweek, that the deadline is only a few hours away - 18.30 UK time on Friday - and that Tom did a great piece on the risers and fallers yesterday (you can read that here), I want to quickly run through some key facts in this edition to help you make decisions on transfers and changes…
A quick reminder for Gameweek 25 - Brentford, Brighton, Manchester United and Newcastle United have no matches while Arsenal, Everton, Liverpool and Wolves have two matches…
The Free Hit chip is an attractive option this week, allowing you to load-up on players with two matches and avoid those with none. It is particularly attractive because players for Brighton, Brentford, Manchester United and Newcastle United have been great recently and this chip means your team will revert back to them next week. This means, for example, you can get all of Bukayo Saka (MID, £8.4m), Martin Odegaard (MID, £7m), Eddie Nketiah (FWD, £6.8m), Mo Salah (MID, £12.7m), Cody Gakpo (MID, £7.8m), and Darwin Nunez (FWD, £8.7m) whilst also reverting back next week to Marcus Rashford (MID, £7.3m), Bruno Fernandes (MID, £9.8m), Luke Shaw (DEF, £5.3m), Kaoru Mitoma (MID, £5.4m), Kieran Trippier (DEF, £6m) and Ivan Toney (FWD, £7.6m).
If you want to save your Free Hit chip for later in the season, or have already used it, then taking a 4-point-hit on extra transfers is also rational. If you are transferring out a player with no matches this week for a player with two matches then your losses will be covered. This is because the new player will get 4 points just for appearing in the two matches, covering the 4-point penalty for using an extra transfer. This applies for every extra transfer you make.
But remember if you sell a player then you may have to buy them back at a higher price. This is because the rules of Fantasy Premier League state that when a player goes up in value you only get half of the benefits if he is already in your team. For example, if you brought Rashford into your team when the Premier League resumed after the World Cup you would have paid £6.7m. He now costs £7.3m. This means that he is valued at £7m in your team. If you sell him this week and want to buy him back next week you will have to pay £7.3m, meaning you lose £0.3m.
Rashford ranks number one in the Premier League for Offensive Impect and post-shot-xG since December 26 according to Impect (minimum of 90 minutes). As Tom said yesterday, if you had captained Rashford instead of Erling Haaland (FWD, £12.2m) in every gameweek since December 26 then your team would have 58 more points. In other words, don’t sell Rashford.
Arsenal have two matches this week. They also had two matches in Gameweek 23. The top-scoring players in that gameweek were Saka and Kevin De Bruyne (MID, £12.3m), who also had a double gameweek. They both got 15 points. The next four top-scorers that gameweek were Man City players too. Double gameweeks for the top teams are really powerful.
Saka has five goals and two assists since Gameweek 17. However, the nature of some of these goals - shots from outside the area - means he ranks well down the league for xG in the same period and below the three Liverpool attackers mentioned further down. He is also below Odegaard for Offensive Impect, which measures the attacking effectiveness of a player for their team. Saka scores 92% for that, but Odegaard is 95%. Saka is a popular captain this week, but you are relying on more individual brilliance from him. He has delivered plenty of that already this season, but be wary…
How much are double gameweeks worth for the lesser teams? And should you transfer out a player you like for someone you like less just because they have two matches this week? Well, consider this. Many teams swapped Bruno Fernandes for Kevin De Bruyne ahead of Man City’s two matches in Gameweek 23. Since then De Bruyne has scored 17 points over three matches and Fernandes has 15 over two. There was barely anything in it. Continue to think long-term over short-term. A double gameweek is not a reason on its own to bring in a player.
For example, Liverpool play Crystal Palace and Wolves this week. In the corresponding fixtures earlier in the season Liverpool drew with Palace 1-1 at home and lost to Wolves 3-0. Salah scored 4 points in those matches. Liverpool just lost 5-2 to Real Madrid. A double gameweek does not cure the team of its problems, particularly in defence. Having said that, Nunez (6th), Salah (10th) and Gakpo (12th) all rank highly for xG since December 26. Of the players above them four aren’t playing this week. Nunez also consistently gets himself into great positions to score according to Impect’s bypassed defenders receiving metric. In short, avoid Liverpool defenders this week, but you can target their attackers and Salah could be your captain.
These are the most transferred-in and transferred-out players so far this week. Transfers-in first…
And these are the most popular transfers out…
Man City play Bournemouth away. When they played Bournemouth at home in Gameweek 2 they won 4-0. De Bruyne got 14 points - more than three times what Salah got for the same two fixtures he has this week. De Bruyne is doubtful with illness but Haaland could be an interesting contrarian play as captain this week, rather than one of the Arsenal or Liverpool players. The Norwegian has an xG of 5.29 since December 26 according to Impect. Salah is 3.12 and Saka is 2.01. Nketiah is second with 4.69.
That’s everything for this edition. Thanks for reading and best of luck in Gameweek 25
Graham