Gameweek 20 preview
Introduction to Impect data + Best players since December 26 + FGPE + what we learned
Hello everyone and welcome to the latest edition of Fantasy Gameweek. The deadline to make transfers for the next Gameweek - Gameweek 20 - is 18.30 on Friday night UK time. This is a double Gameweek for Crystal Palace (Chelsea away, Man United home), Man United (Man City home, Crystal Palace away), Man City (Man United away, Spurs home) and Spurs (Arsenal home, Man City away)
With a quick turnaround, we want to keep this edition to the point and introduce you to some of the data we will be referencing from Impect, our data partner. This newsletter also includes our updated FGPE rankings, which shows the value that players are offering, and Tom’s thoughts on players whose FPL performances stood out during the festive period.
Obviously players with double Gameweeks are particularly interesting this week, although none of the teams have attractive fixtures. The team we might want to back most - Man City - have a manager in Pep Guardiola who is rotating his players and joked he is considering “ridiculous” tactical ideas for the Man United game. It is worth remembering, however, that the last time Man City played Man United in October the score was 6-3, with Erling Haaland and Phil Foden grabbing hat-tricks.
Firstly then, we want to introduce you to Impect’s work by using its data to look at the most influential players in the Premier League since it restarted on December 26. Here are the top ten in four useful metrics according to Impect. Players must have appeared for a minimum of 90 minutes to make these lists…
Offensive Impect (overall attacking effectiveness for team, measured as a percentage relative to other players)
Evan Ferguson - 99
Marcus Rashford - 98
Harry Kane - 98
Aleksandar Mitrovic - 97
Martin Odegaard - 97
Solly March - 97
Erling Haaland - 96
Jack Grealish - 96
Yoane Wissa - 95
Ivan Toney - 95
Post-shot xG (expected goals after a shot has been taken, so measures quality of shot as well as quality of chance)
Aleksandar Mitrovic - 2.7
Kaoru Mitoma - 2.3
Marcus Rashford - 2.3
Erling Haaland - 2.3
James Ward-Prowse - 1.9
Harry Kane - 1.7
Mohamed Salah - 1.6
Eddie Nketiah - 1.6
Ollie Watkins - 1.4
Evan Ferguson - 1.4
Bypassed defenders (how many defensive players a player takes out of the game with their play, ie pass or dribble)
Youri Tielemans - 13.3
Kieran Trippier - 11.9
Naby Keita - 11
Trent Alexander-Arnold - 10.9
Christian Norgaard - 10.8
Martin Odegaard - 10.7
Hakim Ziyech - 10.7
Oleksandr Zinchenko - 10.4
Christian Eriksen - 10.1
Kevin De Bruyne - 10
Bypassed defenders receiving (how many opposition players are taken out when a player receives the ball, so measures effectiveness at finding space infront of goal)
Darwin Nunez - 21.6
Rodrigo - 18.3
Ivan Toney - 17.4
Yoane Wissa - 17.3
Harry Kane - 17.2
Leandro Trossard - 16.7
Neal Maupay - 16.4
Jordan Ayew - 15.8
Michail Antonio - 15.8
Aleksandar Mitrovic - 15.6
Some quick thoughts on what this means for FPL this week: Harry Kane and Marcus Rashford are playing at an elite level and are close to must-picks for the double Gameweek, despite the fixtures. If Evan Ferguson - priced at just £4.5 million - keeps his place for Brighton then he could change the shape of teams in FPL this season. Aleksandar Mitrovic is having a fantastic season. And, in two other obvious statements, Martin Odegaard is incredibly influential for Arsenal while Darwin Nunez gets in great attacking positions for Liverpool without translating it into goals and FPL points…
FGPE rankings
Next, here is our latest FGPE rankings, which measure players based on their value and upside in Fantasy Premier League. As a reminder, we use an algorithm to calculate a score for each player based on their points-per-million and how many points they get each week compared to the top points haul. This allows you to judge whether a player’s performance is offering value and upside in FPL, vital for succeeding in this game.
Below are the top 100 players ahead of Gameweek 20. Evan Ferguson has gone straight to the top after 16 points in his last two games. It will be fascinating to see how Brighton manager Roberto De Zerbi handles the young Irish forward from here. He also started Brighton’s FA Cup win over Middlesbrough, coming off for Danny Welbeck after 64 minutes. "I think he will be an important player for the second half of the season, a very important player,” De Zerbi said of Ferguson last week. Another forward high up the list is Eddie Nketiah, who so far has proven to be an effective replacement for Gabriel Jesus for Arsenal and offers great value in FPL…
What we learned from Christmas fixtures…
Finally, a quick round-up from Tom on some of the players who had stood out in FPL in the matches over Christmas and New Year
Marcus Rashford
One of Fantasy Gameweek’s pre-season calls was that the Manchester United midfielder was mispriced. He has exploded into life in the Premier League following a World Cup where he bagged three goals in a limited number of minutes on the pitch.
In his last three fixtures the 25-year-old has three goals, an assist and 27 FPL points – a feat that’s even more impressive when you consider he was benched for the fixture at Wolves after he slept-in and missed a team deadline.
Rashford has also been finding the net in other competitions too and, unsurprisingly given his price point, has been snapped up by over 40 per cent of FPL managers ahead of the double Gameweek. If you’re looking to make up ground in your mini-league, Rashford is worth considering as a differential captain pick.
Luke Shaw
Two Manchester United players featuring as potential pick-ups in FPL? It’s certainly not a situation we would have envisaged in the first few weeks of the 2022/23 season, but United’s improvement under Erik ten Hag has been significant and England international Shaw – another player we tipped for big points post-World Cup – has been a beneficiary.
The talented left-back has bagged an impressive 32 points in his last three fixtures, offering the crucial combination of attacking potential and defensive solidity (not to mention a steady stream of bonus points).
The addition of Brazil international Casemiro in centre midfield and Lisandro Martinez at centre half has helped significantly with the latter, and even the visit of Manchester City shouldn’t be enough to push Shaw off an FPL starting berth in this double Gameweek.
Darwin Nunez
If Man United assets were swings and hits for FPL managers, those who backed players from rivals Liverpool were largely left disappointed – and none more so than Uruguayan international Nunez.
Nunez was many people’s pick to catch fire after the World Cup, having scored two goals at home against Southampton in the final game pre-Qatar. He has also been a big chance monster in recent years and profiles as the sort of striker who, in what should be a top-tier Liverpool attack, could go berserk.
Those who backed him might have felt justified in that decision by the bucketload of chances that came Nunez’s way, particularly in Liverpool’s 3-1 defeat at Villa Park on Boxing Day. One assist in three post-World Cup matches really isn’t the return Nunez’s backers would have been hoping for.
In many ways Nunez has, so far at least, proven a textbook case in the limitations of slavishly following xG in FPL. Getting into good goalscoring positions is a big part of football – but so too is taking those chances.
That’s not to say Nunez can’t get there and become a truly valuable FPL asset, but his lack of precision in front of goal coupled with the arrival of Cody Gakpo means significant uncertainty hangs over his role in this disjointed side.
Chelsea
Finally, a quick word on Chelsea, arguably the side that has faced the biggest post-World Cup downgrade in form and with manager Graham Potter now under real pressure to deliver results.
A comfortable 2-0 win at home against Bournemouth showed some promise for FPL managers, but injuries to key players – most notably to Reece James – have contributed to an alarming dip in results.
An unimpressive 1-1 draw against Nottingham Forest has been followed by defeats against Manchester City and Fulham. Chelsea’s attack has looked particularly toothless, although the addition of Joao Felix on loan should help on that front, while Potter’s decision to drop Marc Cucurella will have frustrated the 10 per cent of FPL managers who had him as a sure-fire starter for the double Gameweek just gone.
Until those key players return and performances improve, it’s hard to make a case for picking any Chelsea players in your fantasy side at the moment.
Thanks for reading. Fantasy Gameweek will return next week. Until then, please share this newsletter and spread the word. Best of luck in Gameweek 20
Best
Graham and Tom