Fantasy Premier League is back...
Rankings and thoughts for Gameweek 9
Fantasy Premier League is back after the international break and the postponements caused by the death of Queen Elizabeth II. For Brighton, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Leeds, Liverpool and Manchester United this is the first time they have played since the weekend of September 3 and September 4 - that’s nearly a month. Brighton and Chelsea have changed their manager since then. Antony has only played once in the league for Manchester United after his £86 million move from Ajax. The idea there is any certainty about what teams and players will look like this week is a myth. If anyone is claiming with certainty who to play or transfer in for this Gameweek, treat them with caution. What is below is our guide through the Gameweek and the uncertainty…
The link to our rankings for Gameweek 9 is below or in full further down this page if you want to go straight there. But, first, some thoughts about where we are in FPL right now…
There is a lot of pressure on FPL players to make decisions and transfers every week through all the content and analysis that is out there about the Premier League. But this really could be a wait-and-see Gameweek, a week to bank your transfer if possible. Doing nothing is a decision itself. Often it is the hardest decision. Often it is the right decision.
This tool here allows you to see how your team would have performed without any transfers or changing your captain since the start of the season. Put the ID number of your team into it (you can find the number in the web address on your browser when you are on the page of your FPL team) and it will work out your points haul for you. I suspect many of you will be surprised by how little your points total has changed or that your points total would have been higher if you had done nothing. Those with Son Heung-Min or Marcus Rashford at the start, for instance, are likely to have transferred them out after Son’s slow start and Man United’s alarming results against Brighton and Brentford in Gameweek’s 1 and 2. Taking those players out wasn’t dumb, it made sense at the time, but those players have subsequently delivered lots of points. Those who had Son couldn’t really carry him at his £12 million price when all he had delivered was one assist in Gameweek 1, particularly if they didn’t have Erling Haaland. But then he scores a hat-trick from the bench in Gameweek 8. Those who had Rashford could have concluded, fairly, that it was too risky holding him at £6.5 million if Manchester United were in chaos, which it looked like they might be, and other attractive options were emerging in midfield such as Rodrigo and Pascal Gross. Then Rashford went a bit mad. The lesson here is - don’t make decisions based on one Gameweek, be patient.
Having said that, we should also look to take advantage of the uncertainty in football. Football, and sport in general, has uncertainty and chaos at its heart - it’s one of the reasons we love it so much. The reality we think we are basing our decisions and transfers on can change rapidly in one Gameweek - a sending off, a lucky goal, a change in formation, an injury. What we need to do is spend our £100 million as wisely as possible. Place our bets on the most probable outcomes but also in a way that delivers big pay-offs if we are right. There is a saying among City traders about this: “What do I win if I am right?”
There should be two planks behind every decision you make in FPL - what is the chance this happens (a goal, a clean sheet etc) and what is the pay-off if it happens. It is not just about looking at the underlying data - like xG - and trying to figure out who is most likely to score this week. Many players now look at the data - casual as well as advanced players - so the edge you can find by doing that is diminishing. Plus, as I wrote above, circumstances can change quickly in the Premier League, nothing is certain. So you must also think about the pay-off. This is why understanding the points-scoring system in FPL and how many points a player is delivering relative to their price is so important. A bet on the £11.4 million Harry Kane is not the same as a bet on the £5.7 million Dominic Solanke. They both may score and deliver six points, but Solanke costs less than half what Kane does, so if that money has been put to use elsewhere in your FPL team (like on a strong defender or a midfielder) then the pay-off on your bet could be much bigger.
Another way you could look to focus on the pay-offs is by picking three players from teams you think are strong (three is the most you can have, remember). Therefore, instead of needing 11 teams to do something for each of your 11 players to get points, you can reduce the number of bets you are placing across your team and also boost the returns if you are right. Even if it doesn’t pan out in one week, the next week could deliver big points. Look at Manchester City. Anyone with three of Cancelo, De Bruyne, Grealish, Foden or Haaland got a healthy points haul in Gameweek 8 through the straightforward bet that Man City are good at football. Another way of thinking about this is our ZeroForward strategy. The point of that strategy is that defenders offer better value for money than forwards, get more points for a goal, are more likely to get bonus points, and can obviously get clean sheets points too, so we should try to get as many into our team as possible.
This thinking has helped us to build our rankings, the Fantasy Gameweek Player Evaluator, which is below. This is what it measures and how the players are ranked:
-the value a player has delivered so far
-the weekly upside they offer compared to the rest of their position
-the opportunity available to them this week (based on FiveThirtyEight’s assessment of the quality of attacks and defences and the attack and defence the player is against - more on that here)
So, with that, here are the top 100 for this week with some quick thoughts below, including a glance behind the curtain at the scores attributed to each team. This list is designed to be a guide. Use it to help make decisions. Goalkeepers are grey, defenders blue, midfielders yellow, forwards red. We have included the price of the player and their score in the FGPE index.
These are our rankings for the best attacks in Gameweek 9, based on the quality of their attack and the defence they are up against…
Attacks
Man City
Liverpool
Leicester
Brentford
Chelsea
Tottenham
Arsenal
Newcastle
Aston Villa
Everton
Southampton
Leeds
West Ham
Brighton
Forest
Bournemouth
Fulham
Man United
Wolves
Crystal Palace
And these are the defences, based on the quality of the defence and quality of the attack they are facing according to FiveThirtyEight…
Defence
Chelsea
West Ham
Newcastle
Man City
Brentford
Liverpool
Leicester
Aston Villa
Wolves
Southampton
Everton
Leeds
Tottenham
Fulham
Crystal Palace
Arsenal
Bournemouth
Forest
Brighton
Man United
Quick thoughts on rankings…
Rodrigo is included as local reports in Leeds suggest there is a chance he could return for the first time since Gameweek 5 after his shoulder injury…Saint-Maximin, however, looks unlikely to play for Newcastle but we shall see…The sample size for Maupay is low (one goal and three bonus points in two appearances for Everton) so treat his ranking with caution, likewise Liverpool’s Firmino, who could miss out to Darwin against Brighton…This makes Haaland and Toney the clear top-two forwards, with Jesus and Mitrovic not far behind but seeing notable downgrades this week because of the quality of the defences that Arsenal and Fulham are playing…
I won’t be trusting Brighton’s Mac Allister or Gross against Liverpool but this is a situation where their strong performance so far and Liverpool’s shaky defence means they are higher up the rankings than you might think. Graham Potter’s departure as manager at Brighton tips the balance for me though - I would avoid… If Rodrigo is fit to play then he instantly becomes a really attractive option based on our rankings, so watch-out for Leeds team news. His team-mates Harrison and Sinisterra are also interesting plays, particularly the latter, who looks really sharp…The Arsenal duo of Odegaard and Martinelli rank highly despite their match-up with Tottenham and Saka also makes the top 100. Martinelli and Saka’s underlying stats suggest they can sustain this, but Martinelli’s lower price makes him even more tempting… Zaha is also an intriguing option for Crystal Palace against Chelsea, with Palace’s fixtures about to get a lot easier too…
Newcastle’s Pope and Wolves' Sa look strong options as goalkeepers, with decent fixtures in the next few weeks for both too… In defence, Man City’s Cancelo is right up there despite his £7.2 million price and the visit of Man United, while Newcastle defenders also rank highly. The underlying data suggests Trippier should eventually overhaul Schar on this list given the constant attacking threat he poses… James sits at 56th but the Chelsea full-back has a new manager in Graham Potter and some nice fixtures coming up. Kante is also back in training and the root of Chelsea’s defensive issues this season can be traced to his absence. They are a different team when he plays. In short, James looks a strong option. Saliba leads the whole FGPE for Arsenal after his second goal of the season and third clean sheet against Brentford. Only Haaland, Kane, Toney and De Bruyne have more points than him. The problem is that Arsenal now play Tottenham, Liverpool and Leeds before no match at all in Gameweek 12. The FGPE index says he is worth betting on this week, but the fixtures after this make it a difficult call beyond Gameweek 9…
Thanks for reading. Any questions or queries, please get in touch. It’s great to have FPL back…
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