Tips for FPL Gameweek 13
Revisiting some "truths" in the 2022/23 Premier League season + rankings...
There’s little time for breath for FPL managers as we flip from the end of Gameweek 12 on Thursday to the first kick-off in Gameweek 13 on Saturday. The deadline for transfers is 11am UK time on Saturday.
As always, Fantasy Gameweek is pulling out all the stops to bring you tips, advice and analysis to navigate your way through this busy period. Staying on top of your team and keeping faith with your strategy is critical as the fixtures pile up.
This newsletter has two parts – a look at what we learned from Gameweek 12, followed by Graham’s must-read rankings, created to help you find the value-for-money players that are crucial to win your mini-league.
Right, let’s get to it, with a focus this week on revisiting a few early-season “truths” – because avoiding irrational bias is one of the keys to FPL success.
What we learned from Gameweek 12…
Can Manchester United’s defenders now be relied upon?
The season began with Erik Ten Hag’s Man United side in disarray, desperately struggling at both ends of the pitch, particularly defensively. The nadir of that was a 4-0 reversal at Brentford, with all four goals conceded in a truly shambolic first half.
For many FPL managers, that game was the final straw and United assets – in particular defenders – will have been shipped out.
Since that dark day, the stats on the face of it aren’t exactly remarkable. United have conceded nine goals in eight games, a middling performance and not an immediate “buy” signal.
However, six of those goals were against Manchester City and two of the others were against Arsenal and Liverpool, two of the other top attacks in the league. The other goal conceded was against Everton in a 2-1 victory.
Aside from that, United have kept clean sheets against Southampton (A), Leicester (A), Newcastle (H) and most recently Tottenham Hotspur (H). Those clean sheets are backed up by the underlying data, with three of those four opponents logging an xG of below 1. Southampton were the odd ones out, with an xG of 1.6 according to data from FBref and Statsbomb.
Next up for United are Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, but then the fixtures really soften up: West Ham (H), Aston Villa (A), Fulham (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Wolves (A) and Bournemouth (H).
That’s a cracking run to target and Diogo Dalot (DEF, £4.6m), a player we’ve previously flagged, remains the clear value choice, offering the combination of attacking threat to go with this newfound defensive solidity.
Luke Shaw (DEF, £4.7m) – who not too long ago was widely regarded as the best attacking full-back in Europe - is an excellent alternative, having found his way back into Ten Hag’s line-up in the last three games. He also comes with differential appeal, featuring in less than 1% of FPL teams.
Are Liverpool turning a corner?
Liverpool’s defence was also all over the shop in the early going this campaign, with last season’s runners-up among the worst performers when it comes to conceding big chances. What’s more, Andy Robertson (DEF, £6.7m) and Trent Alexander-Arnold’s (DEF, £7.2m) attacking production has regressed, with the duo recording just one goal and two assists between them. If you invested in them at £7m and £7.5m, respectively, at the start of the season, it goes without saying those aren’t the numbers you were hoping for. Ownership of both has, understandably, plummeted.
For those who kept the faith, two clean sheets in two games will have come as welcome relief. But should that be viewed as the start of a new period of defensive resilience and thus a buying opportunity following the decline in price of Liverpool defenders?
It’s early but the signs are mixed. Liverpool certainly looked more organised in their 1-0 win against City, with the champions recording an xG of 1.0 – well below their season average of 2.2 per game.
West Ham, meanwhile, had an xG of 1.9 - although that was boosted substantially by the penalty Jarrod Bowen (MID, £8.2m) missed.
The upcoming fixtures are also attractive, with Nottingham Forest (A), Leeds United (H), Spurs (A), Southampton (H), Aston Villa (A) and Leicester City (H) in Liverpool’s sights.
The uncertainty at left back means Trent is the safer attacking option, although Joel Matip’s (DEF, £5.9m) absence means in-form Joe Gomez (DEF, £4.5m) could be the value pick, albeit with a lower upside.
Can we still trust Brighton?
We started the season high on Brighton’s assets, particularly their defenders and attacking midfielder Leandro Trossard (MID, £6.9m). The latter has delivered substantial returns – most notably with a blistering hat-trick against Liverpool in Gameweek 9 – while the defence notched two clean sheets in the first four games of the season.
Goals have dried up in the last three weeks under new manager Roberto De Zerbi, with the Seagulls failing to hit the onion bag in their last three Premier League outings.
The underlying stats point to a certain amount of bad luck, with Brighton recording a cumulative xG of 3.6 over those three games.
Their xGA has averaged at just under 1 over that period – including 0.2 in the last game versus Nottingham Forest – well below their average over the three games prior (1.6).
In short: it’s probably too soon to worry about your Brighton assets (if you own any). The run of fixtures is pretty rough - Man City (A), Chelsea (H) and Arsenal (A) are all on the horizon in the next four weeks – so anyone considering investing will probably want to wait until after that stretch.
That period should also give time for a more settled side to emerge, particularly at wing-back which likely offers the best chance of attacking returns alongside those precious clean sheets.
Quick scout notes
Darwin Nunez (FWD, £8.8m) – at times the subject of ridicule this season but took his goal against Arsenal well and bagged again against West Ham. Injury to Luis Diaz means his place in the starting line-up looks secure, and the fixtures, as noted earlier, look attractive.
Eberechi Eze (MID, £5.6m) – Eze has always been a dream on the eye test and is starting to match his obvious talent with FPL points. Two goals in his last three outings – netting 23 points in the process – is an impressive return, while a 0.44 combined xG/xA over the course of the season suggests this should be repeatable.
Marcus Rashford (MID, £6.6m) – hasn’t scored in four games but looked sharp in 2-0 win against Spurs, registering five shots (three on target) and an xG of 0.7. Merits patience for the 16% who still own him, and worth considering for those who don’t as fixtures soften after this weekend.
Leicester City defence – don’t sleep on the improvement in Leicester’s defence, which coincides with Wout Faes (DEF, £4.5m) getting into the team. Three clean sheets in four outings suggests things are settling after a summer of turbulence at the King Power. Full-backs Timothy Castagne (DEF, £4.5m) and James Justin (DEF, £4.3m) are a genuine attacking threat and outstanding value.
Rankings for Gameweek 13…
Right, into the rankings. As normal, we start with the players, then look at the teams to target. Players who are injured or suspended are not included.
The players are ranked on value, their upside relative to everyone else in their position, and fixtures this week. This combines to make their FGPE score.
To generate the rankings we use FPL points and price data, our FGPE algorithm, and data on attacks and defences from FiveThirtyEight. Given it’s a short week and Tom has done such a thorough analysis above, I will skip the extra thoughts for this Gameweek…
Attacks to target and avoid (Best first)
Liverpool
Man City
Arsenal
West Ham
Leeds
Tottenham
Chelsea
Man United
Leicester
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Fulham
Newcastle
Brentford
Wolves
Everton
Brighton
Southampton
Bournemouth
Forest
Defences to target and avoid (Best first)
Liverpool
West Ham
Arsenal
Man City
Crystal Palace
Tottenham
Aston Villa
Leicester
Chelsea
Wolves
Brentford
Everton
Leeds
Newcastle
Man United
Bournemouth
Fulham
Southampton
Brighton
Forest
That’s it for this edition of Fantasy Gameweek. We will be back next week. Best of luck for Gameweek 13!
Graham and Tom