Tips for FPL Gameweek 14
What we learned + Rankings
Hello everyone and welcome to the latest edition of Fantasy Gameweek, where you will find tips and analysis to help you win your mini-league in Fantasy Premier League. Let’s get into our preview of Gameweek 14. Firstly, Tom looks at what we learned from Gameweek 13, then Graham goes through the rankings for Gameweek 14. Remember, the deadline for transfers this week is 11am UK time on Saturday.
What we learned from Gameweek 13…
Are Everton…good?
Kevin De Bruyne (MID, £12.3m) has the most assists in the Premier League this season with nine. Slotted in behind him in second place is Bernardo Silva (MID, £6.9m) with six then Bukayo Saka (MID, £8m), Andreas Pereira (MID, £4.6m) and Everton’s Alex Iwobi (MID, £5.5m) with five.
Iwobi is a player usually subjected to ridicule rather than genuine consideration in your FPL team. That scepticism was justified based on his fantasy output last season, when he registered just two goals and two assists, delivering 78 points in total.
However, in FPL it’s always important to focus on facts rather than old narratives - and Iwobi looks a different beast this season, scoring a goal and assisting five more, including an outrageous backheel in Everton’s impressive 3-0 win against Crystal Palace last time out.
Everton are at last close to having a full-strength side, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin (FWD, £7.9m) adding a much-needed physical presence to their forward line. Iwobi is now the man that makes this side tick, and under manager Frank Lampard he has a license to push forward into the opposition box.
Anthony Gordon (MID, £5.4m) bagged a poacher’s tap-in against Palace to end a 1970s-Brazil-esque move that started with Jordan Pickford (GK, £4.5m) threading passes between the opposition players (much to the initial horror of the Goodison Park crowd). That was Gordon’s first goal since Gameweek 5. Over the course of the season he has hit the net three times without recording an assist. The combination of talent and improved opportunity in a stronger Everton side means he is well-placed to deliver more FPL returns.
One final thing: defenders. Everton have conceded only 12 goals in the league this season - third-best behind the 10 of Newcastle and the 11 of Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea. They also have a decent-looking run of fixtures ahead of them. As always, back the defenders with the best chance of delivering attacking returns – in this case, Vitalii Mykolenko (DEF, £4.5m) or Nathan Patterson (DEF, £4.0m) (if he’s fit). Their next three fixtures: Fulham (A), Leeds United (H), Bournemouth (A)
Are Liverpool…bad?
Getting a handle on Liverpool’s form this season is a bit like catching smoke. The Reds are now two points behind newly promoted Fulham, having followed up their impressive 1-0 win at home against Manchester City with a 1-0 defeat against Nottingham Forest in Gameweek 13.
While a stat-line of 22 scored and 13 conceded isn’t terrible, it’s worth remembering that includes a 9-0 home win against Bournemouth. Without that result, some of Liverpool’s FPL assets would really be in the doghouse.
Let’s start with the easy bit –Jurgen Klopp’s men simply cannot be trusted to keep clean sheets. The performance against City looks more like an outlier than a trend, and they were back to conceding big chance after big chance against Forest in Gameweek 14.
A blank against Forest wasn’t exactly what FPL managers who bought Darwin Nunez (FWD, £8.8m), Roberto Firmino (FWD, £8.1m) or Mo Salah (FWD, £12.8m) had in mind. However, next up are a Leeds United side who have lost four games on the spin, conceding eight goals in the process – including three the last time out against Fulham.
The underlying stats suggest that Leeds have been a tad unlucky, but if you’ve bought into any of the Liverpool attackers, you’ll probably want to give them one more week to prove their worth. Liverpool’s next three fixtures are Leeds United (H), Tottenham Hotspur (A), Southampton (A)
Which Newcastle assets offer the best value?
A video of Erling Haaland (FWD, £12.2m) walking gingerly after Manchester City’s Champions League draw against Borussia Dortmund understandably had FPL accounts on Twitter buzzing about the potential he won’t play in this weekend’s game at the King Power Stadium against Leicester City.
While you’re probably not planning to transfer the Norwegian giant from your squad - it would be expensive to get him back in given he has risen in price by £0.7 million since the start of the season - let’s consider which mid-tier strikers could stand in for a week or two.
Step forward Callum Wilson (FWD, £7.3m), who has four goals and one assist in eight starts this season and has looked threatening most weeks for an impressive Newcastle side. He bagged again last time out in a 2-1 win at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium – a result which propels Newcastle and their players into the top four.
Midfielder Miguel Almiron (MID, £5.4m) is on a hot streak right now, bagging five goals in his last five games. Interestingly, his underlying stats point to an xG of 4.2 this season – suggesting a slight overperformance but not a glaring one.
At £5.4m, he looks a high upside option that can free up some valuable capital to spend elsewhere. He should also maintain his prominent role in Newcastle’s attack with Alexander Isak (FWD, £6.7m) not expected back until after the World Cup.
Meanwhile, Newcastle’s defence has conceded the fewest goals in the league. Kieran Trippier (DEF, £5.8m) offers the best combination of defensive and attacking returns, but if you want a lower-cost option and one owned by fewer FPL teams then Sven Botman (DEF, £4.4m) looks a guaranteed starter.
Quick scout notes
Aleksander Mitrovic (FWD, £6.8m) – has scored in all but two starts this season (and missed a penalty in one of those). Pre-season talk that he might not be able to make the step-up to the Premier League now looks ludicrous. Start him with confidence against any defence.
Willian (MID, £5.5m) – I didn’t think I’d write Willian’s name this season, let alone list him as a possible pick. But here we are. Impressive against Leeds at the weekend, bagging a goal and three bonus points.
Rodrigo (MID, £6.3m) – back on the scoresheet against Fulham and started instead of Patrick Bamford as Leeds’ out-and-out striker. Potential injury is a concern for this week but the suggestion he will be the main man up-front could be big for the rest of the FPL campaign.
Harvey Barnes (MID, £6.9m) – often overlooked for his silkier teammate James Maddison, Barnes has two goals in two games for Leicester. His direct style and willingness to shoot are both ideal for FPL returns.
Rankings for Gameweek 14…
Now into the rankings. As normal, we start with the players, then look at the teams to target. Players who are injured or suspended are not included.
The players are ranked on value, their upside relative to everyone else in their position, and fixtures this week. This combines to make their FGPE score.
To generate the rankings we use FPL data on points and price, FiveThirtyEight data on attacks and defences, and our own FGPE algorithm…
Attacks to target and avoid (Best first)
Man City
Liverpool
Arsenal
Tottenham
Chelsea
Man United
Crystal Palace
Everton
Newcastle
Brentford
Fulham
West Ham
Wolves
Brighton
Aston Villa
Southampton
Leeds
Leicester
Bournemouth
Forest
Defences to target and avoid (Best first)
Arsenal
Man City
Tottenham
Liverpool
Chelsea
Newcastle
Crystal Palace
Man United
Brentford
Aston Villa
Wolves
Everton
West Ham
Southampton
Fulham
Brighton
Bournemouth
Forest
Leeds
Leicester
Quick thoughts…
Will Erling Haaland be fit to play in Gameweek 14? Keep an eye on team news right up to the deadline on Saturday. Our rankings suggest Roberto Firmino remains an attractive alternative despite Liverpool’s struggles against Forest. Ivan Toney and Aleksandar Mitrovic are also up there but Brentford and Fulham’s attacks are only ranked as mid-table this week as they play defences which have proved to be two of the strongest over the course of the season - Wolves and Everton. However, Wolves just lost 4-0 to Leicester…
Talking of Leicester, they have kept four clean sheets in the last five matches and scored 12 in those matches. What makes this even more remarkable is that they lost the two games before this 5-2 and 6-2. The improvement in form has coincided with the arrival of Wout Faes at the back. He has surged up our rankings, as has Timothy Castagne, who is racking up assists and bonus points too. However, Leicester play Man City this weekend and their attack and defence tumble towards the bottom of our rankings as a result. Leicester’s recent results have been against Forest, Bournemouth, Palace, Leeds and Wolves. Their two heavy defeats before that were against Brighton and Tottenham. This match against City will be a fascinating test of where they really are. After this match they play Everton and West Ham away, which are also tricky fixtures.
If you are looking for reliable defenders, Arsenal’s William Saliba, Ben White and Gabriel are our 1st, 5th and 8th-ranked defenders this week. Arsenal played Forest at home this week. Gabriel Jesus is the fifth-ranked forward while Granit Xhaka, Gabriel Martinelli, Martin Odegaard, and Bukayo Saka are all among the leading midfielders. Xhaka’s place in our rankings may seem odd, but remember we are tracking performance, upside and value of the players. Xhaka’s place in the rankings reflects the points and upside he offers relative to his value. He costs just £5.1m, is playing in the best team in the league and has three goals and three assists so far this season. Saka has only 9 points more than Xhaka but costs £3m more. Xhaka may play as a deeper midfielder but he is getting forward and has a hammer of a left foot…
The leading goalkeepers are so high in our rankings because they have been delivering big hauls and/or consistency this season. Henderson, the top-scoring goalkeeper in FPL, has more points than James Maddison, Mo Salah and Gabriel Jesus, three players we have spent a lot of time writing about. Alisson, Pope, Sa and Raya are not far behind Henderson in points. Kepa, meanwhile, has 29 points in five matches since replacing Edouard Mendy…
That’s it for this edition of Fantasy Gameweek. We will be back next week. Best of luck for Gameweek 14!
Graham and Tom