Who are the Risers and Fallers from FPL Gameweek 2?

The Seagull's assets flying in fantasy, penalty pain for Saka owners and worrying defensive signs at Manchester United.

Risers

Solly March (Brighton, MID, £6.6m)

If you’re near the summit of your FPL mini-league right now, chances are you’ve had both Pervis Estupinan and Kaoru Mitoma in your line-up from the get-go, possibly as part of a Brighton triple-up with Joao Pedro (more on him in Fallers). That duo have been sensational in the first two Gameweeks, delivering 17 and 18 points, respectively. They are also both highly owned, with Estupinan in around 40% of teams and Mitoma in 60% of teams.

March, on the other hand, is in fewer than 10% of line-ups despite a breakout 2022/23 season and Brighton’s soft fixtures to kick off the campaign. Those who gambled on the English winger have been richly rewarded, with March delivering three goals and 24 FPL points – more than any other player.

His underlying data suggests positive returns will keep coming his way, certainly against limited opponents like Luton and Wolves. The fact his goals have mainly come from predatory runs into the box, rather than 30-yard screamers that would be tough to repeat regularly, is also encouraging.

Bryan Mbeumo (Brentford, MID, £6.7m)

We flagged Brentford midfielder Mbeumo in our previews as a reasonably priced midfield asset likely to take a more prominent attacking role in the absence of the suspended Ivan Toney. FPL managers who have backed him are grinning like Cheshire cats right now on the back of three goals in two games - two from the penalty spot – and 23 fantasy points.

While penalties aren’t always a reliable source of goals, Mbeumo will continue to be a focal part of this attack regardless. That’s enough to justify his £6.7m price tag, particularly with attractive home fixtures against Crystal Palace and Bournemouth up next.

Martin Odegaard (Arsenal, MID, £8.5m)

So, what are the statistics on penalties? In 2022/23 each side averaged around five each throughout the campaign, although there was significant variation across the league. That matters and needs to be factored into your valuation of a player in FPL.

The fact Odegaard took the winning penalty for Arsenal against Crystal Palace on Monday evening is therefore significant. Regardless of any other factors, the Norwegian midfielder has to be given a bump as a result of being handed spot-kick duties.

Bukayo Saka, who was on penalty duty last season, must also be given a marginal downgrade too.

Phil Foden (Manchester City, MID, £7.6m)

We said in our season preview article the seemingly low price of Manchester City’s talented midfielders reflects the fact they aren’t guaranteed starters every week. However, the injury to Kevin De Bruyne and departure of Riyad Mahrez mean those lower-priced assets need to be reassessed.

We plumped for Julian Alvarez as our City Riser last week and he rewarded managers with a goal and seven FPL points in a 1-0 win over Newcastle on Saturday. However, it was the performance of England international Foden in a more central role that really caught the eye.

Foden has played every minute of this season and, with De Bruyne out, should be in line to dramatically increase his minutes, goals and assists during the 2023/24 season. Foden has consistently delivered top-level performances on Impect’s data metrics too. If you haven’t made room for Foden in your side ahead of a plum fixture against Sheffield United in Gameweek 3, make sure you have a plan to get him in at the earliest opportunity.

Diogo Jota (Liverpool, MID, £8m)

Similarly, Liverpool’s attackers have been priced for rotation that simply hasn’t happened in the first two games of the 2023/24 campaign. Luis Diaz, a Riser last week, delivered another goal, but Jota is arguably the real FPL jewel in this team.

As we noted in our preview article, Jota’s expected goals (xG) figure for last season was close to Mo Salah’s, with injury the main thing inhibiting the Portuguese international. He is now fit, firing and appears to be the first-choice central striker for Jurgen Klopp. Assuming that continues to be the case, expect his FPL ownership (currently lower than 4%) and price to rise quickly in the coming weeks.

Fallers

Kai Havertz (Arsenal, MID, £7.4m)

If you picked Arsenal midfielder Havertz in your initial XI and were told he’d play 90 minutes in an advanced role in each of the first two games, you’d likely have expected at least some positive return.

However, the German has delivered just 4 points across those two games and, worryingly, his underlying Impect data suggests he hasn’t been much of a threat in front of goal.

His FPL price has dipped by £0.1m as a result. Historically Havertz’s attacking data has been good and a home fixture against a struggling Fulham side probably isn’t the time to get rid of him, but you should be planning a route out if he doesn’t at least look more threatening in that game.

Jordan Pickford (Everton, GK, £4.5m)

Everton were extremely unlucky to lose 1-0 at home on the opening day of the season against Fulham. The same could not be said in Gameweek 2 against an albeit impressive Aston Villa side, who swept the Toffees aside 4-0. The underlying data suggests that was no fluke, with Villa recording a shot-based xG of 3.84, according to Impect.

The fixtures are at least gentle over the next two Gameweeks, with Wolves at home followed by a trip to newly promoted Sheffield United. That’s probably enough for Pickford owners to keep the faith for now at least, but patience will already be wearing thin.

Luke Shaw (Manchester United, DEF, £5.5m)

Shaw is a premium-priced defender in FPL, so you’re looking for both attacking threat from the full-back and defensive solidity. Shaw at least remains a central part of Manchester United’s attack but the gaping holes in front of him, particularly in central midfield, are a concern. United somehow escaped with a 1-0 win in Gameweek 1 against Wolves but were not so lucky in Gameweek 2, when a fast-improving Tottenham Hotspur side rolled them over 2-0 in North London.

If you’ve still got Shaw in your team, you’re keeping him ahead of a home fixture against Nottingham Forest. However, another poor defensive showing from United – Spurs recorded a post-shot xG of 2.51 against them - will likely see FPL managers racing for the exit.

Joao Pedro (FWD, Brighton, £5.5m)

The former Watford striker impressed in Gameweek 1, capping off a performance full of threat with a goal from the penalty spot. He was rewarded with a place on the bench in Gameweek 2 alongside Evan Ferguson, with talented midfielder Julio Enciso getting the nod and impressing.

Such early rotation is not good for Pedro’s FPL value (or Ferguson’s for that matter). If you’re relying on him being in your starting line-up every week, now’s the time to consider alternative strategies.

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Cheers

Tom