Who are the Risers and Fallers from FPL Gameweek 1?
Isak price rise, Chelsea wing-backs and two losers that look more like winners in FPL.
Hello and welcome to the first of this season’s Risers and Fallers columns.
As a reminder (and for those who have signed up to Fantasy Gameweek recently), this will be your weekly round-up of the players who catch our eye in FPL, for good and for bad.
Some of those players might be blindingly obvious (such as our first Riser of 2023/24), while others will be a bit more surprising. Throughout, we will be guided by a combination of what we see on the pitch, the underlying statistics from our data partner Impect and our combined experience playing Fantasy Premier League for around two decades.
With that out of the way, let’s head to Tyneside and the first hammering of the new campaign…
Risers
Alexander Isak (Newcastle, FWD, £7.6m)
We had the Swedish hitman as a candidate for a breakout season in our previews and he certainly didn’t disappoint in Gameweek 1, shredding the Aston villa defence time-and-again as Newcastle romped to a 5-1 win at St James’ Park. His underlying statistics were exceptional, with an Offensive Impect score better than 95% of players in his position group. He was also a top data performer when he played last season.
The next two fixtures aren’t easy – away to Manchester City and then at home to Liverpool – but that hasn’t stopped well over 300,000 FPL managers transferring him in this week, pushing his price up by £0.1m in the process.
The performances of Harvey Barnes and Anthony Gordon were also notable, albeit both face competition for minutes from Miguel Almiron and potentially Callum Wilson (if manager Eddie Howe opts for a front two at any point this season).
Luis Diaz (Liverpool, MID, £7.5m)
Picked from the start by Jurgen Klopp, Diaz was a constant threat on the left-hand side and capped off an excellent performance with a first half goal. His underlying Impect data puts him among the top performers from Gameweek 1 ahead of a juicy looking home fixture against Bournemouth in Gameweek 2. There is rotation risk here, but the Columbian did himself plenty of favours and is available at just £7.5m in FPL, a full £5m cheaper than Mo Salah on the opposite wing.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Everton, FWD, £6m)
When assessing value in FPL, it usually pays to avoid narratives and instead focus on what you see on the pitch and the underlying data. And in the case of Everton, what we saw in their 1-0 defeat at Goodison Park to a good Fulham side was cause for genuine optimism, despite their rather obvious deficiencies in front of goal.
Their post-shot expected goals (xG) was 4.32, according to Impect – the second best of any side on the opening weekend. However, a combination of wasteful finishing and inspired goalkeeping saw them somehow end goalless and pointless after Gameweek 1.
The arrivals of Wilfried Gnonto and Jack Harrison from Leeds United should add further firepower and, once fit, Calvert-Lewin will be in a position to capitalise on these opportunities in a way Neal Maupay could not on Saturday.
Only a lack of match fitness stands between DCL and the starting XI, with fixtures against Aston Villa, Wolves and Sheffield United all offering potential for positive attacking returns.
Max Kilman (Wolves, DEF, £4.5m)
Wolves players also get a bump after suffering a 1-0 defeat at Old Trafford to Manchester United on Monday evening. Despite a chaotic pre-season that saw Julien Lopetegui replaced by former Bournemouth manager Gary O’Neil, the Midlands side were extremely unlucky to lose this one. There aren’t any standout attackers in their line-up but Kilman is a guaranteed starter and part of a defence that conceded a post-shot xG of just 1.55 against one of the better attacks in the division.
Julian Alvarez (FWD, Manchester City, £6.5m)
Argentina striker Alvarez finds his way into this week’s Risers in part because he got the nod against Burnley in Gameweek 1 and in part because Kevin De Bruyne’s injury should ensure he gets more game time for the next four months. Phil Foden and Jack Grealish should also be bumped in value and will be popular as direct replacements for the Belgian playmaker, but Alvarez’s £6.5m price tag makes him a slightly more attractive option.
Reece James (Chelsea, DEF, £5.5m)
Both James and left-back Ben Chilwell took up extremely advanced positions in Sunday’s 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge versus Liverpool. If new manager Mauricio Pochettino is that aggressive against a side containing Mo Salah, Diogo Jota and Luis Diaz, the duo will likely essentially act as wingers in games against West Ham United (A), Luton Town (H) and Nottingham Forest (H). Chilwell was the standout performer at the weekend, both in terms of FPL points and based on the underlying data. However, his price has also risen £0.1m, meaning we’re just about giving James the edge going into Gameweek 2.
Fallers
Marcus Rashford (Manchester United, FWD, £9m)
We had high hopes for Erik Ten Hag’s side heading into the 2023/24 season, and while one poor performance doesn’t fundamentally shift that view, Manchester United’s showing against Wolves was alarming. A post-shot xG of 1.55 and a shot-based xG (which takes account of the quality of finishing) of 0.55 is not what anyone expected for United from this fixture.
That’s enough for most of their starters to be given a downgrade, but the combination of his relatively high FPL price tag and low underlying data performance (he had just one shot on target in this one) means it’s Rashford who is in the drop zone this week. Not enough to give up on the England forward just yet, but the near 50% of managers who invested £9m in him will be looking for an improvement in games against Tottenham hotspur (A), Nottingham Forest (H) and Arsenal (A) in the coming weeks.
Pedro Porro (Tottenham Hotspur, DEF, £5m)
Impressive at the back end of last season but appears to have lost the battle to play in this back four to Emerson Royal. Royal, who bagged a goal Spurs’ 2-2 opening day draw with Brentford and delivered a solid underlying statistical performance, is now an intriguing FPL option at just £4.5m.
Richarlison and Son Heung-min also disappointed at Brentford, both to the eye and based on their underlying data. Owners of Richarlison will be concerned at the workhorse role he took as a centre forward and will be keen to see a sizeable improvement. Son, meanwhile, was fairly anonymous and was substituted before the end with the game in the balance – never a good sign for a premium asset.
Mohamed Salah (Liverpool, MID, £12.5m)
If you already have Salah in your team, you won’t be bussing him out ahead of a home fixture against Bournemouth in Gameweek 2. Salah was a huge threat in the first half against Chelsea, taking advantage of space left behind the advanced Chilwell. His assist for Luis Diaz’s goal was sublime, but Jurgen Klopp’s decision to substitute the Egyptian in the 77th minute with the scores level was not ideal. There was no sign of any injury, which suggests it was tactical and that at a key point in the game, Klopp preferred not to have Salah on the pitch. A situation to keep an eye on over the next few games.
Emiliano Martinez (Aston Villa, GK, £5m)
We could probably have picked any Aston Villa defensive asset for this week’s Fallers following their 5-1 shellacking at St James’ Park on Saturday, but it’s Argentina goalkeeper Martinez – in 8% of FPL squads at the time of writing and priced at £5m - who takes the hit. Villa were a mess at the back, particularly after captain Tyrone Mings suffered a horrific knee injury in a clash with Isak. A home fixture against an Everton side that lacks serious firepower should be the perfect opportunity to right the ship.
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Cheers
Tom