What you need to know for Gameweeks 14 and 15
The news, data, risers and fallers in Fantasy Premier League
Hello and welcome to the latest edition of Fantasy Gameweek. This is our round-up of everything you need to know for Gameweek 14 and the midweek fixtures that make-up Gameweek 15 in Fantasy Premier League. This includes the news that matters, the key data from Impect, our data partner, and the risers and fallers.
The deadline for transfers and changes to your team for Gameweek 14 is 1.30pm UK time on Saturday December 2. The deadline for transfers and changes to your team for Gameweek 15 is 6pm UK time on Tuesday December 5.
Here are some of the key news stories this week:
-Erik ten Hag is standing by under-pressure Man United goalkeeper Andre Onana and used expected-goals data to defend his position. "If you analyse it well then you see he is the second-best goalkeeper in the Premier League based on stats, so his expected defending goals is the second best in the Premier League,” he said. Story here
-Jurgen Klopp has suggested he will rotate his forward players during the festive period. Story here
-Jeff Stelling is back. He will be presenting Amazon Prime’s Every Game Every Goal - a Premier League version of the NFL’s popular Red Zone - during Gameweek 15. Story here
These are the fixtures for Gameweek 14:
And these are the fixtures for Gameweek 15:
These are the most transferred-in players this week so far:
And these are the transfers-out:
Now for the key data from Impect, our data partner.
These are the top-five and bottom-five teams for xG per game so far. As a reminder, xG measures the quality of chances that a team creates by attributing a score to each chance based on the likelihood of it being a goal. For example, if the chance was certain to be a goal then it would get an xG score of 1. However, xG does not take into account the quality of the player with the chance or the goalkeeper they are facing. It just looks at the location of the chance and the number of players around the ball.
Best
Liverpool - 2.27
Chelsea - 2.2
Man City - 2.18
Aston Villa - 2.17
Newcastle - 2.01
Worst
Sheffield United - 0.83
Burnley - 0.93
Fulham - 1.21
Nottingham Forest - 1.28
Luton - 1.31
And here are the best five and worst five for xG per game conceded:
Best
Arsenal - 0.88
Man City - 0.92
Newcastle - 1.09
Chelsea - 1.45
Brentford - 1.46
Worst
Sheffield United - 2.33
Luton - 2.13
Bournemouth - 2.08
West Ham - 2.06
Wolves - 1.85
Moving on to the players, these are the top-10 for Offensive Impect, which measures the attacking effectiveness of a player for their team when they are on the pitch. This data should be used in-conjunction with how many minutes these players are on the pitch for. Chris Wood, for instance, has only started three matches…
Erling Haaland - 100
Darwin Nunez - 99.6
Mo Salah - 99.2
Callum Wilson - 98.9
Ollie Watkins - 98.5
Alexander Isak - 98.1
Chris Wood - 97.7
Leon Bailey - 97.4
Heung-Min Son - 97
Taiwo Awoniyi - 96.6
And these are the players with the highest xG….
Erling Haaland - 14.81
Ollie Watkins - 10.08
Bryan Mbeumo - 8.2
Mo Salah - 7.77
Darwin Nunez - 6.88
Dominic Solanke - 6.38
Alexander Isak - 5.61
Callum Wilson - 5.22
Yoane Wissa - 5.15
Heung-Min Son - 4.99
Next, these are the post-shot xG rankings. As a reminder, post-shot xG measures the quality of a chance after the shot has been taken, so it also takes into account the quality of the shot:
Erling Haaland - 13.13
Ollie Watkins - 8.45
Mo Salah - 7.58
Heung-Min Son - 7.2
Bryan Mbeumo - 6.37
Dominic Solanke - 6.1
Alexander Isak - 5.75
Odsonne Edouard - 5.58
Darwin Nunez - 5.5
Abdoulaye Doucoure - 5.33
These are the top-10 players for bypassed defenders, which measures how many opposition defenders a player takes out of the game with their passing or dribbling. It is a way to track a player’s attacking impact in a game:
Youri Tielemans - 11
Trent Alexander-Arnold - 10
James Maddison - 10
Pervis Estupinan - 9
Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg - 9
Dominik Szoboszlai - 9
Rodri - 9
Bruno Fernandes - 9
Lucas Paqueta - 9
Raheem Sterling - 9
Mo Salah - 9
Now let’s see the top-10 players for bypassed defenders receiving, which measures how many opposition defenders were taken out of the game when a player receives the ball. It measures the quality of the attacking positions that a player gets themselves in with the ball:
Darwin Nunez - 21.6
Callum Wilson - 18.6
Ollie Watkins - 18.5
Taiwo Awoniyi - 17.5
Odsonne Edouard - 17.1
Erling Haaland - 16.9
Dominic Calvert-Lewis - 15.1
Joao Pedro - 14.8
Heung-Min Son - 14.7
Alexander Isak - 14.3
Lastly, these are the top defenders for Offensive Impect, which shows the defenders who are contributing to attacks, which is really useful to know for FPL:
Pervis Estupinan - 100
Nathan Ake - 99.1
Kieran Trippier - 98.2
Sven Botman - 97.2
Manuel Akanji - 96.3
Cristian Romero - 95.4
Oleksandr Zinchenko - 94.5
Lewis Dunk - 93.6
Trent Alexander-Arnold - 92.7
Jan Paul Van Hecke - 91.7
After looking at the news and data, let’s now consider the risers and fallers in Fantasy Premier League…
Risers
Alexander Isak (FWD, £7.4m)
Eddie Howe’s Newcastle United are the real deal. After a humbling 2-0 reversal against an improving Bournemouth side in Gameweek 12, the Toon came roaring back in Gameweek 13, demolishing a Chelsea side that continues to confound pundits and FPL managers alike.
Winger Anthony Gordon, a long-time Fantasy Gameweek favourite based on his underlying data, is now at the heart of this attack and delivered another double-digit haul in Gameweek 14, bagging a goal, an assist and 13 FPL points. He remains available for less than £6m in FPL and, at the time of writing, features in fewer than 15% of teams. If you aren’t on the Gordon bandwagon yet, the time has come.
However, it is outrageously talented striker Isak who is our top Riser this week. The Swedish hitman is back from injury, registering a goal and 8 FPL points on his return.
The rotation risk appears minimal this week with Callum Wilson expected to miss another game through injury and, while opponents Manchester United were much improved against Everton on Sunday, we fancy Isak to terrorise Erik ten Hag’s shaky defence.
Alejandro Garnacho (MID, £4.7m)
We remain less than convinced by the Man United experience under Ten Hag, but it’s important to separate out narrative from fact when choosing your FPL squad.
Garnacho is an electric winger who looks to have nailed down a starting spot in this team. He has started three games back-to-back – games United have managed to win. While malfunctioning in some ways, you’d still expect Man United to be in-and-around the top four come May.
Garnacho won’t score outrageous overhead kicks every week - as he did against Everton - but the confidence a young player can get from a goal like that is huge. The return of Luke Shaw, one of the best attacking full-backs in Europe, should also elevate both the Argentinian’s potential ceiling and the ceiling of other United attackers.
The fixtures for United before Christmas are far from easy (it’s Newcastle (A), Chelsea (H) and then Bournemouth (H) in the next three weeks), but at £4.7m you can pick and choose when to include Garnacho in your starting XI.
Oleksandr Zinchenko (DEF, £5.1m)
We’ve been waiting for Zinchenko, a defender who often operates as a midfielder, to break out in FPL, and he’s quietly been doing that in recent weeks.
The Ukrainian followed up his 10-point Gameweek 12 performance with a clean sheet and all three bonus points in a gritty 1-0 win against Brentford in Gameweek 13.
There was a touch of luck about that clean sheet – the data suggests Brentford should have scored at least one – but Arsenal remain one of the top defences in the Premier League. A home fixture against Wolverhampton Wanderers followed by a trip to Luton Town offer big opportunities for both attacking and defensive returns.
Fallers
Reece James (DEF, £5.4m)
To misquote Al Pacino in The Godfather Part III: “Every time I think I’m in, they push me back out.” Chelsea are an FPL nightmare at the moment, following up a scintillating 4-4 draw at home against Manchester City in Gameweek 12 with a 4-1 capitulation against Newcastle in Gameweek 13.
One thing that has been relatively consistent in recent weeks is conceding lots of goals and big chances. For defenders, particularly premium-priced defenders, to be valuable in FPL you need a decent prospect of clean sheets and attacking output.
James (suspended in Gameweek 14 after his red card on Saturday) offers plenty of the latter at his best but until we see evidence of the former, we simply can’t consider picking him.
That said, note Chelsea have probably the softest fixture schedule in the Premier League over Christmas. After a tricky trip to Goodison Park to play Everton in Gameweek 16, the full-back could be back on the FPL radar.
James Tarkowski (DEF, £4.4m)
Tarkowski is a decent FPL pick on paper, providing significant aerial threat at set pieces in a side that, under Sean Dyche, you’d expect to be solid defensively.
However, after conceding two at Crystal Palace in Gameweek 12, Everton were surprisingly overwhelmed by an until now pretty average Man United attack in Gameweek 13.
Unlike Chelsea, their festive fixture list looks grizzly, with a trip to in-form Nottingham Forest in Gameweek 14 followed by assignments against talented Newcastle and Chelsea attacks. For those looking a bit further into the future, fixtures against Tottenham Hotspur and Man City are also either side of Christmas Day for the Toffees.
For now, look elsewhere for value-for-money defensive picks.
Kyle Walker (DEF, £5.3m)
Walker is a popular FPL pick, primarily because he starts every week for one of the league’s top defences. However, City haven’t kept a clean sheet in three fixtures and the England full-back offers limited attacking threat, reducing his potential for goals, assists and bonus points.
Relying on clean sheets alone in FPL is a risky strategy, particularly for players priced above £5m. City’s next two opponents, Spurs and Aston Villa, have pace to burn in attack and are the kind of teams that could cause the champions problems on the counter.
That’s it for this edition. Thanks for reading and good luck in Gameweeks 14 and 15…
Graham and Tom