What you need to know for Gameweek 24
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Hello and welcome back to Fantasy Gameweek. This is our round-up of everything you need to know for Gameweek 24 in Fantasy Premier League. It includes the news that matters, the key data from Impect, our data partner, and the risers and fallers.
The deadline for transfers and changes to your team for Gameweek 24 is 11am UK time on Saturday February 10 - that’s today!
Here are some of the key news stories this week:
-Mo Salah could return to training next, Jurgen Klopp has said. More here
-Heung-Min Son is back from the Asian Cup and has a chance of playing this weekend for Spurs. More here
-Crystal Palace’s Michael Olise has a “serious injury” according to manager Roy Hodgson. More here
These are the fixtures for Gameweek 24:
These are the most transferred-in players this week so far:
And these are the transfers-out:
Now for the key data from Impect, our data partner. This is what has happened since Gameweek 14 at the start of December.
These are the top-five and bottom-five teams for xG per game - in other words, the best and worst attacks. As a reminder, xG measures the quality of chances that a team creates by attributing a score to each chance based on the likelihood of it being a goal. For example, if the chance was certain to be a goal then it would get an xG score of 1.
Best
Liverpool - 2.48
Arsenal - 2.18
Newcastle - 2.07
Man City - 2.05
Tottenham - 1.93
Worst
Nottingham Forest - 1.13
Crystal Palace - 1.13
Sheffield United - 1.16
Burnley - 1.17
Luton - 1.26
And here are the best and worst for xG per game conceded - in other words, the best and worst defences:
Best
Arsenal - 0.7
Man City - 1.04
Liverpool - 1.14
Bournemouth - 1.26
Aston Villa - 1.3
Worst
Newcastle - 2.59
Luton - 2.03
Tottenham - 1.99
Fulham - 1.95
Sheffield United - 1.95
Moving on to the players, these are the top-10 for Offensive Impect, which measures the attacking effectiveness of a player for their team when they are on the pitch:
Richarlison - 100
Elijah Adebayo - 99.3
Phil Foden - 98.7
Chris Wood - 98
Ollie Watkins - 97.3
Cole Palmer - 96.7
Heung-Min Son - 96
Matheus Cunha - 95.3
Michael Olise - 94.7
Gabriel Jesus - 94
And these are the players with the highest xG:
Dominic Solanke - 7.15
Darwin Nunez - 6.05
Mo Salah - 5.27
Richarlison - 5.06
Matheus Cunha - 4.8
Julian Alvarez - 4.79
Dominic Calvert-Lewin - 4.43
Joao Pedro - 4.16
Gabriel Jesus - 4.15
Bukayo Saka - 4.04
Next, these are the post-shot xG rankings. As a reminder, post-shot xG measures the quality of a chance after the shot has been taken, so it also takes into account the quality of the shot:
Dominic Solanke - 7.83
Mo Salah - 7.34
Richarlison - 6.41
Julian Alvarez - 6.28
Matheus Cunha - 5.82
Joao Pedro - 5.42
Jarrod Bowen - 5.33
Darwin Nunez - 5.07
Scott McTominay - 4.2
Elijah Adebayo - 4.17
These are the top-10 players for bypassed defenders, which measures how many opposition defenders a player takes out of the game with their passing or dribbling. It is a way to track a player’s attacking influence in a game:
Ross Barkley - 12
Bruno Fernandes - 11
Trent Alexander-Arnold - 10
Martin Odegaard - 10
Christian Norgaard - 9
Kieran Trippier - 9
Bruno Guimaraes - 9
Enzo Fernandez - 9
Pascal Gross - 9
Cole Palmer - 9
Now let’s see the top-10 players for bypassed defenders receiving, which measures how many opposition defenders were taken out of the game when a player receives the ball. It measures the quality of the attacking positions that a player gets themselves in with the ball:
Dominic Calvert-Lewin - 18.8
Darwin Nunez - 18.1
Jean-Philippe Mateta - 17.7
Nicolas Jackson - 17.2
Elijah Adebayo - 16.9
Ollie Watkins - 16.8
Richarlison - 14.8
Gabriel Jesus - 14.1
Chris Wood - 13.8
Joao Pedro - 13.3
Lastly, these are the top defenders for Offensive Impect, which shows the defenders who are contributing to attacks, which is really useful to know for FPL:
Alfie Doughty - 100
Kieran Trippier - 98.4
Marcos Senesi - 96.9
Gabriel - 95.3
Oleksandr Zinchenko - 93.8
Jack Hinshelwood - 92.2
Kyle Walker - 90.6
Trent Alexander-Arnold - 89.1
Pedro Porro - 87.5
Fabian Schar - 85.9
Finally, let’s look at the risers and fallers…
Risers
Phil Foden (MID, £7.9m)
In a mega-week of FPL points, City’s Foden stood alone. The midfield maestro was in irrepressible form against struggling Brentford, bagging a glorious hat-trick and 20 fantasy points in Gameweek 23. The England man is consistently one of the best performers in the league based on his underlying data and has backed that up with attacking returns in five of his last six starts. The fact he has so far been almost immune from rotation means he is significantly underpriced in FPL and looks a must-pick ahead of a home fixture against Everton in Gameweek 24 and then a juicy double Gameweek versus Chelsea (H) and Brentford (H).
One minor note of caution: Foden is currently outperforming his expected goals (xG) number, so don’t bank on hat-tricks every week.
Matheus Cunha (FWD, £5.7m)
Cunha has looked a huge threat all season but has only recently started to turn that threat into FPL points. The talented Brazilian had attacking returns in three of his last four fixtures prior to Gameweek 23. At Stamford Bridge against an expensively assembled but unreliable Chelsea side he was unstoppable, scoring three goals and bagging 17 FPL points as Wolves romped to a 4-2 win. The Midlands side have been scoring for fun in recent weeks and have home fixtures against Brentford and Sheffield United in the next three Gameweeks. At sub-£6m, Cunha is an absolute snip.
Alejandro Garnacho (MID, £4.8m)
Manchester United are back to full strength and starting to get the best out of star players Rasmus Hojlund and Marcus Rashford. More interestingly for fantasy, however, is the fact winger Garnacho, a sub-£5m midfielder in FPL, now looks to be a guaranteed starter for a side that, despite their recent travails, should be in and around fourth place by the end of the season. As we said last week when we marked Hojlund as a Riser, decisions in FPL should be governed by facts rather than narratives. Garnacho bagged two goals and 16 points in Gameweek 23 and next faces an Aston Villa defence that has leaked plenty of goals in recent weeks. At his current price point, Garnacho should be on everyone’s radar.
Fallers
Kieran Trippier (DEF, £6.8m)
Trippier remains an elite option from an attacking sense in FPL and proved that again with a well-taken goal and an assist in Gameweek 23. However, attacking returns alone usually aren’t enough to justify picking a top-priced defender in your fantasy team – you want the realistic prospect of clean sheet points too. Newcastle’s last shutout came in Gameweek 17 (when Trippier didn’t play) and at home against an admittedly in-form Luton Town side on Saturday they shipped another four. Nottingham Forest, Newcastle’s next opponents, recently put three past them, while Bournemouth have the pace in attack to worry this defence in Gameweek 25.
Kyle Walker (DEF, £5.5m)
The second of three defenders in this week’s Fallers, the problem with Walker is you’re relying almost entirely on clean sheet points and the idea he is a guaranteed starter. City have stopped the opposition from scoring just five times in the 21 games Walker has started, with his lack of attacking threat meaning he’s unlikely to deliver decent points most weeks. Rico Lewis also appears to be an increasing threat to his minutes on the pitch, particularly against weaker opposition.
Malo Gusto (DEF, £4.2m)
The injury to Reece James means Gusto is, understandably, a popular low-cost defensive pick in FPL. Chelsea lack the defensive consistency to be trusted in fantasy, however, and while an away fixture at Crystal Palace in Gameweek 24 holds some promise of points, after that it’s Manchester City (A) followed by a blank Gameweek 26. You might be comfortable with Gusto as a deep-bench stash, but it’s worth considering other options.
That’s it for this edition. Thanks for reading and good luck in Gameweek 24.
Graham and Tom