What you need to know for Gameweek 27
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Hello and welcome to Fantasy Gameweek. This is our round-up of everything you need to know for Gameweek 27 in Fantasy Premier League. It includes the news that matters, the key data from Impect, our data partner, and the risers and fallers.
The deadline for transfers and changes to your team for Gameweek 27 is 1.30pm UK time on Saturday March 2
Here are three of the key news stories this week:
-Mo Salah will miss Liverpool’s match this week but could return for the Gameweek 28 clash with Man City. More here
-Richarlison is out for “three to four weeks” with a knee injury. More here
-Dominic Solanke is a doubt for Bournemouth’s game with Burnley. “We will try until the end,” manager Andoni Iraola said. “If he feels comfortable, he may want to train and let’s see how it goes.” More here
These are the fixtures for Gameweek 27:
These are the most transferred-in players this week so far:
And these are the transfers-out:
Now for the key data from Impect, our data partner. This is what has happened in the last ten gameweeks…
These are the top-five and bottom-five teams for xG per game - in other words, the best and worst attacks. As a reminder, xG measures the quality of chances that a team creates by attributing a score to each chance based on the likelihood of it being a goal. For example, if the chance was certain to be a goal then it would get an xG score of 1.
Best
Liverpool - 2.84
Arsenal - 2.32
Man City - 2.17
Aston Villa - 1.98
Tottenham - 1.92
Worst
Burnley - 0.97
Sheffield United - 1.21
Crystal Palace - 1.22
Fulham - 1.38
Brentford - 1.39
And here are the best and worst for xG per game conceded - in other words, the best and worst defences:
Best
Arsenal - 0.65
Man City - 1.01
Liverpool - 1.29
Brighton - 1.41
Wolves - 1.45
Worst
Newcastle - 2.48
Burnley - 2.18
Fulham - 2.1
Brentford - 2.08
Luton - 2.02
Moving on to the players, these are the top-10 for Offensive Impect, which measures the attacking effectiveness of a player for their team when they are on the pitch:
Rasmus Hojlund - 100
Ollie Watkins - 99.2
Cole Palmer - 98.3
Phil Foden - 97.5
Richarlison - 96.7
Bukayo Saka - 95.8
Ivan Toney - 95
Kai Havertz - 94.2
Dominic Solanke - 93.3
Douglas Luiz - 92.5
And these are the players with the highest xG:
Dominic Solanke - 7.63
Darwin Nunez - 6.22
Bukayo Saka - 6.06
Richarlison - 5.17
Julian Alvarez - 4.9
Ollie Watkins - 4.9
Erling Haaland - 4.77
Mo Salah - 4.7
Luis Diaz - 4.15
Phil Foden - 4.1
Next, these are the post-shot xG rankings. As a reminder, post-shot xG measures the quality of a chance after the shot has been taken, so it also takes into account the quality of the shot:
Darwin Nunez - 6.61
Mo Salah - 6.61
Julian Alvarez - 6.28
Bukayo Saka - 6.11
Dominic Solanke - 6.01
Richarlison - 5.8
Rasmus Hojlund - 5.74
Ollie Watkins - 5.32
Luis Diaz - 4.9
Rodrigo Muniz - 4.83
These are the top-10 players for bypassed defenders, which measures how many opposition defenders a player takes out of the game with their passing or dribbling. It is a way to track a player’s attacking influence in a game:
Ross Barkley - 11
Martin Odegaard - 11
Pascal Gross - 9
Bruno Guimaraes - 9
Christian Norgaard - 9
Bruno Fernandes - 9
Rodri - 9
Cole Palmer - 9
Kieran Trippier - 8
Ryan Christie - 8
Now let’s see the top-10 players for bypassed defenders receiving, which measures how many opposition defenders were taken out of the game when a player receives the ball. It measures the quality of the attacking positions that a player gets themselves in with the ball:
Ivan Toney - 18
Dominic Calvert-Lewin - 17.9
Richarlison - 17.5
Jean-Philippe Mateta - 16.8
Ollie Watkins - 16.8
Rasmus Hojlund - 15.5
Dominic Solanke - 13.7
Luis Diaz - 12.6
Jarrod Bowen - 12.6
Kai Havertz - 11.9
Lastly, these are the top defenders for Offensive Impect, which shows the defenders who are contributing to attacks, which is really useful to know for FPL:
Gabriel - 100
Alfie Doughty - 98.1
Lewis Dunk - 96.2
Kieran Trippier - 94.2
Fabian Schar - 92.3
Marcos Senesi - 90.4
Max Kilman - 88.5
Kyle Walker - 86.5
Jan Paul Van Hecke - 84.6
Thiago Silva - 82.7
Finally, let’s look at the risers and fallers…
Risers
Jarrod Bowen (MID, £7.7m)
After a rough period for West Ham and Bowen - who had failed to score since a 2-0 Gameweek 18 win over Manchester United - the winger exploded into life with a ruthless hat-trick in a 4-2 win over struggling Brentford in Gameweek 26. With plum fixtures against Everton (A) and Burnley (H) up next, that’s more than enough on its own for Bowen, who now has an impressive 14 goals this season, to top this week’s Risers. The return of Brazilian playmaker Lucas Paqueta to the starting line-up significantly increases his appeal too.
Kai Havertz (MID, £7.1m)
After a tricky start to life at Arsenal, German international Havertz has found his groove, delivering double-digit returns in each of his last two starts. The Gunners have been rampant in those fixtures, scoring nine goals and conceding just one, and come up against Sheffield United, the league’s worst side, in Gameweek 27. After that it’s an appetising home fixture against Brentford. The return of Gabriel Jesus means there is some rotation risk here but Havertz, who currently sits in fewer than 2% of FPL sides and costs just £7.1m, offers genuine differential value.
Leon Bailey (MID, £5.6m)
Bailey has hit a rich vein of form in recent weeks, delivering attacking returns in five of his last seven appearances. He was the best player on the pitch in Aston Villa’s 4-2 win against Nottingham Forest in Gameweek 26 and has a chance to follow that up against a Luton Town side that has started to show signs of regression, particularly defensively. Priced at just £5.6m and in fewer than 5% of FPL line-ups, the Jamaican winger can provide crucial differential points in the coming weeks.
Fallers
Fabian Schar (DEF, £5.4m)
Over 8% of FPL sides have Schar in their line-ups, no doubt coerced by his two-goal salvo in Gameweek 22 against Aston Villa. But he can’t be relied upon to deliver regular attacking returns and Newcastle’s defence looks as shaky as any in the league at the moment. The Magpies have conceded 12 goals in their last four Premier League fixtures, with trips to improving Wolves and Chelsea sides on the slate next. There are better-value and more-reliable options out there in fantasy.
Sergio Reguilon (DEF, £4.4m)
Reguilon holds appeal on paper as an attacking full-back playing for a side which, historically, has been reasonably solid defensively. But the manner of Brentford’s 4-2 reversal at West Ham in Gameweek 26 was alarming, and next up they face a talented Chelsea attack followed by a tough trip to the Emirates Stadium to face title challengers Arsenal. Reguilon will likely have value against the right opposition but he’s best avoided for the time being.
Kevin De Bruyne (MID, £10.7m)
If you have KDB in your line-up, you’ve likely been left frustrated at his lack of minutes on the pitch in the last two gameweeks. We’d caution against dropping him ahead of the Manchester derby – the Belgian bagged three assists in City’s 5-2 win against Luton in the FA Cup – but his recent time on the bench means he has to get a downgrade.
That’s it for this edition. Thanks for reading and good luck in Gameweek 27.
Graham and Tom
