What you need to know for Gameweek 13
The news, data, risers and fallers in Fantasy Premier League
Hello and welcome to the latest edition of Fantasy Gameweek. This is our round-up of everything you need to know for Gameweek 13 in Fantasy Premier League, including the news that matters, the key data from Impect, our data partner, and the risers and fallers.
The deadline for transfers and changes to your team is 11am UK time on Saturday November 25
Here are some of the key news stories this week:
-It’s Haaland v Salah in the 12.30pm Saturday kick-off this week. What more could you want from Fantasy Premier League? You can find a preview of the match via The Guardian here
-Everton are ten points worse off than they were at the end of the last gameweek after being punished for breaching the Premier League’s financial fair play rules. Sean Dyche, the manager, says the 10-point penalty for Everton is “disproportionate” and the club is “aggrieved” by the ruling. Story here
-West Ham’s Jarrod Bowen faces a late fitness test before their match against Burnley. Story here
These are the fixtures for Gameweek 13:
These are the most transferred-in players this week so far:
And these are the transfers-out:
Now for the key data from Impect, our data partner.
These are the top-five and bottom-five teams for xG per game so far. As a reminder, xG measures the quality of chances that a team creates by attributing a score to each chance based on the likelihood of it being a goal. For example, if the chance was certain to be a goal then it would get an xG score of 1. However, xG does not take into account the quality of the player with the chance or the goalkeeper they are facing. It just looks at the location of the chance and the number of players around the ball.
Best
Liverpool - 2.38
Chelsea - 2.33
Man City - 2.21
Aston Villa - 2.18
Newcastle - 2
Worst
Sheffield United - 0.85
Burnley - 0.88
Fulham - 1.11
Nottingham Forest - 1.18
Bournemouth - 1.21
And here are the best five and worst five for xG per game conceded:
Best
Arsenal - 0.83
Man City - 0.92
Newcastle - 1.13
Chelsea - 1.38
Brentford - 1.44
Worst
Sheffield United - 2.23
Bournemouth - 2.2
Luton - 2.13
West Ham - 2.1
Wolves - 1.81
Moving on to the players, these are the top-10 for Offensive Impect, which measures the attacking effectiveness of a player for their team when they are on the pitch:
Erling Haaland - 100
Darwin Nunez - 99.6
Chris Wood - 99.3
Mo Salah - 98.9
Callum Wilson - 98.6
Leon Bailey - 98.2
Ollie Watkins - 97.9
Alexander Isak - 97.5
Heung-Min Son - 97.2
Leandro Trossard - 96.8
And these are the players with the highest xG….
Erling Haaland - 13.42
Ollie Watkins - 9.3
Mo Salah - 7.77
Bryan Mbeumo - 7.68
Darwin Nunez - 6.31
Callum Wilson - 5.22
Dominic Solanke - 5.17
Alexander Isak - 5.14
Yoane Wissa - 4.7
Heung-Min Son - 4.59
Next, these are the post-shot xG rankings. As a reminder, post-shot xG measures the quality of a chance after the shot has been taken, so it also takes into account the quality of the shot:
Erling Haaland - 12.1
Ollie Watkins - 8.12
Mo Salah - 7.58
Heung-Min Son - 7.03
Bryan Mbeumo - 6.37
Dominic Solanke - 6.1
Abdoulaye Doucoure - 5.33
Odsonne Edouard - 5.31
Callum Wilson - 5.19
Darwin Nunez - 5.13
These are the top-10 players for bypassed defenders, which measures how many opposition defenders a player takes out of the game with their passing or dribbling. It is a way to track a player’s attacking impact in a game:
Trent Alexander-Arnold - 10
James Maddison - 10
Pervis Estupinan - 9
Dominik Szoboszlai - 9
Billy Gilmour - 9
Rodri - 9
Bruno Fernandes - 9
Lucas Paqueta - 9
Raheem Sterling - 9
Youri Tielemans - 9
Now let’s see the top-10 players for bypassed defenders receiving, which measures how many opposition defenders were taken out of the game when a player receives the ball. It measures the quality of the attacking positions that a player gets themselves in with the ball:
Darwin Nunez - 20.7
Callum Wilson - 18.6
Ollie Watkins - 18.6
Erling Haaland - 17.5
Taiwo Awoniyi - 17.5
Odsonne Edouard - 16.8
Beto - 15.7
Chris Wood - 14.9
Dominic Calvert-Lewis - 14.8
Joao Pedro - 14.3
Lastly, these are the top defenders for Offensive Impect, which shows the defenders who are contributing to attacks, which is really useful to know for FPL:
Pervis Estupinan - 100
Kieran Trippier - 99.1
Nathan Ake - 98.2
Sven Botman - 97.3
Manuel Akanji - 96.5
Oleksandr Zinchenko - 95.6
Cristian Romero - 94.7
Jan Paul Van Hecke - 93.8
Raphael Varane - 92.9
Lewis Dunk - 92
After looking at the news and data, let’s now consider the risers and fallers in Fantasy Premier League…
Risers
Kostas Tsimikas (DEF, £4.7m)
Greece international Tsimikas appeared a must-have fantasy asset following Andy Robertson’s shoulder injury and Liverpool’s impressive start to the 2023/24 campaign. But despite being an attacking threat in a team that has one of the best defensive records in the Premier League this season, Tsimikas remains in just 12% of FPL teams at the time of writing. The Reds have conceded just 10 goals in the league so far, the joint-lowest with Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal.
Tsimikas bounced back from a surprise benching in Gameweek 11 away at Luton Town (when Joe Gomez was preferred to help deal with the aerial threat) with a double assist and 15 fantasy points in Liverpool’s impressive 3-0 home win against Brentford in Gameweek 12.
You’re probably leaving Tsimikas on your bench for Liverpool’s Gameweek 13 trip to the Etihad to face Pep Guardiola’s free-scoring Manchester City side, but after that it’s Fulham (H), Sheffield United (A), Crystal Palace (A) and Manchester United (H). Still available at just £4.7m, it’s a question of when, rather than if, Tsimikas’s FPL price-tag hits £5m.
Dominic Solanke (FWD, £6.5m)
We’ve always been fans of the talented Solanke, a player who has managed to deliver consistent fantasy points returns despite operating as a lone striker in a struggling Bournemouth side. The arrival of highly-regarded Andoni Iraola – a manager known for his high-pressing, attacking style – should ultimately pay dividends both for the south-coast club and the fantasy prospects of their forward players.
There have, unsurprisingly, been one or two teething problems as the Spaniard has looked to implement a new system and integrate new players. However, even during this spell, Solanke had been impressive - scoring four and providing an assist in 11 starts prior to Gameweek 12.
Then, in Gameweek 12, Solanke was exceptional. He bagged a brace and delivered 13 points to the handful of FPL managers who picked him. The fact Bournemouth’s 2-0 victory was against a Newcastle United side with an injury crisis cannot be ignored, but that was a dominant win against a team targeting a top-four finish.
Solanke is now the fourth top-scoring forward in FPL and has the opportunity to add to his tally in upcoming fixtures against Sheffield United (A), Aston Villa (H) and Crystal Palace (A).
Pablo Sarabia (MID, £4.7m)
We aren’t advocating adding Spanish winger Sarabia to your FPL squad based solely on an impressive three-minute cameo against Tottenham Hotspur in Gameweek 12. However, his match-winning goal and assist performance didn’t come completely out of nowhere.
As recently as the 2020/21 season Sarabia was good enough to play 26 games for Paris Saint Germain, scoring six league goals and assisting four, according to Transfermarkt. He has 29 caps for Spain and nine international goals to his name. In short, this is a footballer with serious pedigree.
His minutes have been limited this season and the imminent return of Pedro Neto has to be taken into account. But if Sarabia can rediscover form to match his obvious talent, Gary O’Neil could give him an extended run in his starting XI. Should that happen, Sarabia’s sub-£5m FPL price tag will be a bargain.
Fallers
Son Heung-min (MID, £9.7m)
We reluctantly placed the excellent Son into Fallers in our last newsletter following a spate of injuries and suspensions to key Spurs players. A trip to a decent-but-beatable Wolves team was a good test of the impact of those absences for Spurs and, unfortunately, the outcome wasn’t great for Ange Postecoglou’s side.
Wolves may have scored their goals late but their win were richly deserved. Spurs, on the other hand, struggled to create openings, with Son finding himself in defensive positions for large portions of the game.
While the injury to Micky van de Ven and the ban for Christian Romero are blows, it is undoubtedly James Maddison’s absence that is the biggest issue for Spurs’ attacking prospects. You can see his influence in the Impect data above.
The England international isn’t expected back until mid-January, so now might be the time to consider alternatives to Son, particularly with a tough run of fixtures against Aston Villa (H), Manchester City (A), West Ham United (H) and Newcastle (H) on the horizon.
Marcus Rashford (MID, £8.6m)
England international Rashford remains in 13% of FPL teams at the time of writing despite registering just one goal and two assists in 11 starts this campaign. Those continuing to back him at this point are basing the decision on blind-faith rather than what we’re seeing on the pitch.
Manchester United may have won four of their last five Premier League games but don’t be fooled – they are insipid going forward and struggled to break down a determined Luton Town side in Gameweek 12.
Rashford looks completely devoid of confidence and now faces tough fixtures against a fired-up Everton (A), Newcastle (A) and improving Chelsea (H). We’ve seen more than enough evidence now to conclude there is significantly better value elsewhere in FPL.
Kieran Trippier (DEF, £7m)
Like Son, Trippier’s inclusion in Fallers has nothing to do with his form and everything to do with Newcastle’s injury crisis. We always say the key to defensive value in FPL - particularly for a premium-priced player like Trippier – is the combination of attacking threat and reliable clean sheets.
Newcastle have no fit attackers and are missing both Sven Botman and Dan Burn in defence, meaning fantasy returns at both ends of the pitch are less likely. What’s more, upcoming fixtures against Chelsea (H), Manchester United (H), Everton (A) and Spurs (A) are unlikely to be easy.
Trippier remains in 50% of teams as things stand. Given his obvious dip in FPL value, expect that to change – and his price to drop – in the coming weeks.
That’s it for this edition. Thanks for reading and good luck in Gameweek 13…
Graham and Tom