What you need to know for Gameweek 12

The news, data, risers and fallers in Fantasy Premier League

Hello and welcome to the latest edition of Fantasy Gameweek. This is our round-up of everything you need to know for Gameweek 12 in Fantasy Premier League, including the news that matters, the key data from Impect, our data partner, and the risers and fallers.

The deadline for transfers and changes to your team is 11am UK time on Saturday November 11

Here are some of the key news stories this week:

-Tottenham’s James Maddison is out until January with injury. Story here
-Two of the brightest young talents in the Premier League - Evan Ferguson of Brighton and Eberechi Eze of Crystal Palace - have signed new contracts with their clubs. More details here
-Bukayo Saka has missed training following Arsenal’s win over Sevilla in the Champions League but looks likely to play against Burnley. Story here

These are the fixtures for Gameweek 12:

These are the most transferred-in players this week so far:

And these are the transfers-out:

Now for the key data from Impect, our data partner.

These are the top-five and bottom-five teams for xG per game so far. As a reminder, xG measures the quality of chances that a team creates by attributing a score to each chance based on the likelihood of it being a goal. For example, if the chance was certain to be a goal then it would get an xG score of 1. However, xG does not take into account the quality of the player with the chance or the goalkeeper they are facing. It just looks at the location of the chance and the number of players around the ball.

Top
Liverpool - 2.47
Chelsea - 2.25
Aston Villa - 2.15
Man City - 2.11
Newcastle - 2.11

Bottom
Sheffield United - 0.87
Burnley - 0.93
Bournemouth - 1.11
Fulham - 1.14
Nottingham Forest - 1.16

And here are the best five and worst five for xG per game conceded:

Best
Man City - 0.71
Arsenal - 0.87
Newcastle - 1.03
Chelsea - 1.22
Brentford - 1.44

Worst
Bournemouth - 2.32
Sheffield United - 2.31
West Ham - 2.17
Luton - 2.12
Wolves - 1.87

Moving on to the players, these are the top-10 for Offensive Impect, which measures the attacking effectiveness of a player for their team when they are on the pitch:

Darwin Nunez - 100
Chris Wood - 99.6
Erling Haaland - 99.3
Callum Wilson - 98.9
Mo Salah - 98.5
Ollie Watkins - 98.2
Leon Bailey - 97.8
Heung-Min Son - 97.5
Alexander Isak - 97.1
Hee-Chan Hwang - 96.4

And these are the players with the highest xG….

Erling Haaland - 11.29
Ollie Watkins - 7.78
Bryan Mbeumo - 7.35
Mo Salah - 7.22
Darwin Nunez - 6.01
Callum Wilson - 5.22
Alexander Isak - 5.14
Yoane Wissa - 4.48
Heung-Min Son - 4.44
Dominic Solanke - 4.39

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After looking at the news and data, let’s now consider the risers and fallers in Fantasy Premier League…

Risers

Cole Palmer (MID, £5.1m)

Palmer is undeniably a huge talent. The only questions following his big-money transfer to Chelsea were the extent he’d get sufficient minutes to warrant FPL consideration given the plethora of wingers available to Mauricio Pochettino, and how effective the Blues looked as an attacking unit.

As it turns out, the Manchester City academy product looks comfortably Chelsea’s most effective player going forward and appears a nailed-on starter. He has also seized penalty-taking duties, providing an additional, albeit unreliable, avenue to fantasy points. The fact he has already bagged three penalties suggests some regression towards the mean should be expected on this front.

As for Chelsea as a team, the jury is still very much out. They were much improved in a 2-2 draw against Arsenal but followed that up with a disappointing (albeit statistically unlucky) 2-0 home defeat to Brentford. A 4-1 win at Tottenham Hotspur in Gameweek 11 looks a sensational result on paper, but in reality game flow – and specifically Spurs having two players sent off – played into Chelsea’s hands. 

Even then, they struggled for most of the second half to deal with Ange Postecoglou’s ultra-attacking approach which should, in theory, have enabled them to create simple chances. The rapid three goals they scored towards the end of that game could nonetheless boost confidence – and they’ll need it ahead of difficult fixtures against Manchester City (H), Newcastle United (A) and Brighton (H).

The fact Palmer costs just £5.1m in FPL means that you don’t need to worry about fixture difficulty – simply stash him on the bench against City and unleash him for fixtures against less tricky opponents.

Jeremy Doku (MID, £6.6m)

Belgian flyer Doku is also unquestionably a massive talent and has taken easily to both the Premier League and Pep Guardiola’s famously demanding management approach. With all eyes (and captaincy armbands) on Erling Haaland and Mohamed Salah in Gameweek 11, Doku went ballistic, scoring one, assisting four more and netting 22 FPL points as City demolished Bournemouth 6-1 at the Etihad Stadium.

There are a couple of points of caution here. First, perhaps unsurprisingly, his direct involvement in five goals was a significant statistical outperformance unlikely to continue to be repeated. Second, despite the continuing absence of Kevin De Bruyne, Doku faces competition for minutes, particularly from in-form Bernardo Silva and Jack Grealish.

The next three fixtures could also be challenging – Chelsea (A), Liverpool (H) and Tottenham (H) – although both Chelsea and Spurs face problems of erratic form and injuries, respectively (more on this in Fallers). Regardless of the opposition, Doku will be excellent value at £6.6m if he is handed sufficient minutes on the pitch. 

Mohammed Kudus (MID, £6.5m)

Kudus was the standout player in West Ham’s entertaining 3-2 defeat against Brentford on Saturday, scoring one, exquisitely laying on another and netting 11 FPL points. That performance was supported by excellent underlying data, with an Impect score better than 98% of players in his position group.

West Ham’s fixtures are soft for the next three weeks, with a trip to struggling Burnley in Gameweek 13 sandwiched between home fixtures against Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace.

There is stiff competition for midfield squad places this season in FPL, but Kudus is in just 1% of sides right now and offers genuine differential upside in the coming weeks.

Fallers

Son Heung-min (MID, £9.7m)

After a relatively disappointing 2022/23 campaign (10 goals and 6 assists), Son has been reborn this season under Postecoglou’s management, bagging 8 goals and an assist in 11 starts. His goals tally is an overachievement based on expected goals (xG) alone, but remember Son has consistently been one of the best finishers in the division for a while.

However, Monday’s chaotic home defeat to Chelsea cost Spurs more than just 3 points, with midfield talisman James Maddison, who has 3 goals and 6 assists and has developed an instant rapport with the South Korean, picking up an injury. 

While the hope is his absence will be brief, the loss of Micky van de Ven and Christian Romero will also hurt the build-up play of a side moulded around passing the ball out from defence.

All of which means Son has to be given a downgrade, at least until we see how Spurs look without these key players. A trip to Wolves is no picnic either, although you might want to hold onto Son until Maddison’s status is clarified.

Destiny Udogie (DEF, £4.8m)

Udogie has been a revelation for Spurs and has proven a popular bargain in FPL teams. However he now faces a one-match ban and will also suffer from van de Ven’s long-term injury. When Udogie returns from his ban to face Aston Villa (H) and Man City (A) he will line-up next to a new centre-back partnership.

Darwin Nunez (FWD, £7.5m)

Nunez is a darling on Impect’s underlying data and may well blow up at some point this season. But getting into excellent goalscoring positions and failing to take chances is a bad habit, and one the Uruguayan just can’t seem to shake.

He was at it again against Luton Town on Sunday, missing another sitter as Liverpool had to wait until the last minute to snatch a 1-1 draw.

Luis Diaz scored the equaliser in that game and his return to first-team contention means Nunez once again faces significant rotation risk.

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That’s it for this edition. Thanks for reading and good luck in Gameweek 12…

Graham and Tom