What you need to know for Gameweek 9
The key news, data, risers and fallers in Fantasy Premier League
Hello and welcome to the latest edition of Fantasy Gameweek. This is our round-up of everything you need to know for Gameweek 9 in Fantasy Premier League, including the news that matters, the key data from Impect, our data partner, and the risers and fallers
The deadline for transfers and changes to your team is 11am UK time on Saturday 21 October
Here are some of the key news stories this week:
-Liverpool full-back Andy Robertson could be out until the New Year after dislocating his shoulder. Story here
-Bukayo Saka may not be fit in time for Arsenal’s match against Chelsea. More here
-Ineos boss Sir Jim Ratcliffe is close to agreeing an investment in Manchester United that will see him take control of the football operations. Erik ten Haag says he is “not involved” in the talks. Story here
These are the fixtures for Gameweek 9:
These are the most transferred-in players this week so far:
And these are the transfers-out:
Now for the key data from Impect, our data partner.
These are the top-five and bottom-five teams for xG per game so far. As a reminder, xG measures the quality of chances that a team creates by attributing a score to each chance based on the likelihood of it being a goal. For example, if the chance was certain to be a goal then it would get an xG score of 1. However, xG does not take into account the quality of the player with the chance or the goalkeeper they are facing. It just looks at the location of the chance and the number of players around the ball.
Top
Liverpool - 2.45
Newcastle - 2.22
Aston Villa - 2.18
Chelsea - 2.08
Everton - 2.06
Bottom
Sheffield United - 0.78
Burnley - 0.97
Nottingham Forest - 1.1
Bournemouth - 1.17
Fulham - 1.21
And here are the best five and worst five for xG per game conceded:
Top
Man City - 0.71
Arsenal - 0.79
Newcastle - 1.05
Chelsea - 1.16
Brentford - 1.41
Bottom
Sheffield United - 2.54
Bournemouth - 2.51
West Ham - 2.32
Wolves - 2.05
Luton - 1.94
Moving on to the players, these are the top-10 for Offensive Impect, which measures the attacking effectiveness of a player for their team:
Darwin Nunez -100
Ollie Watkins - 99.6
Erling Haaland - 99.3
Mo Salah - 98.9
Hee-Chan Hwang - 98.6
Alexander Isak - 98.2
Callum Wilson - 97.8
Heung-Min Son - 97.5
Leon Bailey - 97.1
Diogo Jota - 96.7
And these are the players with the highest xG….
Erling Haaland - 8.29
Ollie Watkins - 6.1
Mo Salah - 5.15
Alexander Isak - 5.14
Bryan Mbeumo - 4.95
Darwin Nunez - 3.98
Carlton Morris - 3.82
Callum Wilson - 3.46
Yoane Wissa - 3.37
Abdoulaye Doucoure - 3.3
Next, these are the post-shot xG rankings. Post-shot xG measures the quality of a chance after the shot has been taken, so it also takes into account the quality of the shot:
Erling Haaland - 7.8
Ollie Watkins - 5.52
Mo Salah - 5.14
Alexander Isak - 5.04
Heung-Min Son - 4.82
Abdoulaye Doucoure - 4.29
Evan Ferguson - 4.19
Bukayo Saka - 3.97
Bryan Mbeumo - 3.6
Callum Wilson - 3.59
Lastly, these are the top defenders for Offensive Impect, which shows the defenders who are getting involved in attacks, which is really useful to know for FPL:
Pervis Estupinan - 100
Kieran Trippier - 99.1
Jan Paul Van Hecke - 98.2
Cristian Romero - 97.3
Jonny Evans - 96.4
Sven Botman - 95.5
Trent Alexander-Arnold - 94.5
Virgil Van Dijk - 92.7
Raphael Varane - 91.8
Matty Cash - 90.9
Finally, let’s look at the Risers and Fallers ahead of Gameweek 9…
Risers
Kostas Tsimikas (DEF, £4.4m)
Liverpool’s buccaneering left-back Andrew Robertson is the third-priciest defender in FPL, reflecting his ability to deliver attacking returns over the last five seasons - he has averaged around ten assists per campaign while also weighing in with six goals. His underlying Impect attacking stats have been characteristically superb this campaign too.
The next three games – Everton (H), Nottingham Forest (H) and Luton Town (A) – are about as attractive as it gets for an attacking defender in FPL. A perfect opportunity, then, for the Scot to deliver big fantasy points.
Except Robertson is nursing a shoulder injury which is expected to see him miss multiple games for the Reds. This makes Tsimikas – also an attacking left-back – an excellent stand-in at £4.4m. Last season, Tsimikas notched four assists in just 762 minutes of football. Buy him quick before that price goes up.
Mo Salah (MID, £12.6m)
A Liverpool double-up with Tsimikas and Salah could be the order of the day in FPL. The Egyptian’s consistency is remarkable – he has delivered attacking returns in all but one fixture this season – and he has now leapt to the top of the FPL scoring charts, level on points with Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins.
Those returns are, unsurprisingly, backed up by top-tier underlying data. His Offensive Impect score, which measures attacking effectiveness, is alongside the likes of Erling Haaland and Ollie Watkins, justifying the significant outlay FPL managers need to make to get him in their side.
With such attractive fixtures on the horizon there is a strong argument for handing Salah the captain’s armband over the next three Gameweeks.
Hwang Hee-Chan (MID, £5.4m)
At Fantasy Gameweek we love defenders who get into the attacking-third almost as much as we love attackers who are categorised as midfielders. Hwang is one such player. He’s registered five goals this season, including two in the last two Gameweeks against Man City and Aston Villa. Those performances should have cemented his place in Gary O’Neil’s team ahead of a potentially fruitful run of fixtures against Bournemouth (A), Newcastle United (H) and Sheffield United (A).
Hwang’s underlying data is particularly eye-catching. While he has played fewer games, his Offensive Impect score is in the same bracket as the very top points scorers in FPL. If that form continues, he could become an intriguing differential option for fantasy managers.
Fallers
Erling Haaland (FWD, £14m)
Ok, hear us out. The appearance of arguably the world’s best striker in Fallers is not an argument that he needs to be shipped out of your FPL team – particularly ahead of a home fixture against Brighton, who have shipped eight goals in two games.
But we can’t ignore that based on the eye-test and the underlying Impect data the Norwegian has no-showed in back-to-back Premier League fixtures. This could easily be a get-right game for Haaland, but you need to consider the possibility that someone else – perhaps Salah or Watkins – should have the captain’s armband for Gameweek 9.
Eddie Nketiah (FWD, £5.5m)
Arsenal spent the best part of £60 million on Kai Havertz, presumably with the intention of playing him most weeks. But his abject early-season form meant he slipped to the bench and, with Gabriel Jesus injured, space in Mikel Arteta’s starting XI has opened up for Nketiah.
Two goals and two assists are solid FPL returns, but the England international probably hasn’t done quite enough to keep that valuable starting spot – especially if Bukayo Saka returns to fitness in Gameweek 9.
Bryan Mbeumo (MID, £6.7m)
Mbeumo got off to a flying start in FPL this season, bagging four goals in the first Gameweeks - although those returns were bolstered by two penalties, a useful but unreliable source of points in FPL.
Brentford have fallen off a cliff since then - losing three out of four fixtures. Over a fifth of FPL managers still own Mbeumo and most will likely keep the faith ahead of a home fixture against an improving but porous Burnley defence. Another poor performance in that game, coupled with a tougher slate of fixtures, and you should look for an alternative.
That’s it for this edition. Thanks for reading and good luck in Gameweek 9…
Graham and Tom
