What you need to know for Gameweek 11
The news, data, risers and fallers in Fantasy Premier League
Hello and welcome to the latest edition of Fantasy Gameweek. This is our round-up of everything you need to know for Gameweek 11 in Fantasy Premier League, including the news that matters, the key data from Impect, our data partner, and the risers and fallers.
The deadline for transfers and changes to your team is 11am UK time on Saturday November 4
Here are some of the key news stories this week:
-Arsenal striker Gabriel Jesus is out until December with injury. Story here
-Erik Ten Hag says Manchester United players “want to put this right” after a poor run of form sparked rumours about his future as manager. Story here
-Premier League managers are changing how they use substitutions now they can make five switches, according to an analysis by The Guardian. You can read that here
These are the fixtures for Gameweek 11:
These are the most transferred-in players this week so far:
And these are the transfers-out:
Now for the key data from Impect, our data partner.
These are the top-five and bottom-five teams for xG per game so far. As a reminder, xG measures the quality of chances that a team creates by attributing a score to each chance based on the likelihood of it being a goal. For example, if the chance was certain to be a goal then it would get an xG score of 1. However, xG does not take into account the quality of the player with the chance or the goalkeeper they are facing. It just looks at the location of the chance and the number of players around the ball.
Top
Liverpool - 2.38
Aston Villa - 2.19
Newcastle - 2.19
Man City - 2.03
Chelsea - 2.03
Bottom
Sheffield United - 0.79
Burnley - 0.88
Bournemouth - 1.15
Fulham - 1.17
Crystal Palace - 1.22
And here are the best five and worst five for xG per game conceded:
Best
Man City - 0.7
Arsenal - 0.82
Newcastle - 1.07
Chelsea - 1.23
Brentford - 1.36
Worst
Sheffield United - 2.42
Bournemouth - 2.26
West Ham - 2.2
Luton - 2.07
Wolves - 1.89
Moving on to the players, these are the top-10 for Offensive Impect, which measures the attacking effectiveness of a player for their team when they are on the pitch:
Darwin Nunez - 100
Erling Haaland - 99.6
Chris Wood - 99.2
Leon Bailey - 98.8
Callum Wilson - 98.4
Ollie Watkins - 98.1
Mo Salah - 97.7
Heung-Min Son - 97.3
Alexander Isak - 96.9
Hee-Chan Hwang - 96.5
And these are the players with the highest xG….
Erling Haaland - 10.33
Ollie Watkins - 7.4
Bryan Mbeumo - 6.79
Mo Salah - 6.68
Callum Wilson - 5.22
Alexander Isak - 5.14
Darwin Nunez - 4.83
Yoane Wissa - 4.31
Heung-Min Son - 4.08
Carlton Morris - 4.05
Next, these are the post-shot xG rankings. Post-shot xG measures the quality of a chance after the shot has been taken, so it also takes into account the quality of the shot:
Erling Haaland - 10.12
Ollie Watkins - 6.93
Mo Salah - 6.77
Heung-Min Son - 6.19
Bryan Mbeumo - 5.78
Callum Wilson - 5.19
Alexander Isak - 5.04
Evan Ferguson - 4.58
Abdoulaye Doucoure - 4.45
Odsonne Edouard - 4.36
These are the top-10 players for bypassed defenders, which measures how many opposition defenders a player takes out of the game with their passing or dribbling. It is a way to track a player’s attacking impact in a game:
Billy Gilmour - 10
James Maddison - 10
Kieran Trippier - 9
Pervis Estupinan - 9
Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg - 9
Rodri - 9
Dominik Szoboszlai - 9
Trent Alexander-Arnold - 9
Bruno Fernandes - 9
Lucas Paqueta - 9
Mo Salah - 9
Now let’s see the top-10 players for bypassed defenders receiving, which measures how many opposition defenders were taken out of the game when a player receives the ball. It measures the quality of the attacking positions that a player gets themselves in with the ball:
Darwin Nunez - 22.4
Ollie Watkins - 18.8
Callum Wilson - 18.1
Erling Haaland - 17.5
Dominic Calvert-Lewis - 17.1
Taiwo Awoniyi - 17.1
Odsonne Edouard - 16.7
Beto - 16.2
Chris Wood - 15.4
Rasmus Hojlund - 15.2
Lastly, these are the top defenders for Offensive Impect, which shows the defenders who are contributing to attacks, which is really useful to know for FPL:
Pervis Estupinan - 100
Kieran Trippier - 99.1
Jan Paul Van Hecke - 98.1
Sven Botman - 97.2
Cristian Romero - 96.2
Raphael Varane - 95.3
Matty Cash - 94.3
Lewis Dunk - 93.4
Virgil Van Dijk - 92.5
Andy Robertson - 91.5
After looking at the news and data, let’s now consider the risers and fallers in Fantasy Premier League…
Risers
Eddie Nketiah (FWD, £5.6m)
Arsenal hitman Nketiah was a faller a couple of weeks ago following the return of Gabriel Jesus. However, Jesus picked up yet another injury ahead of Arsenal’s plum fixture against Sheffield United side and Nketiah took full advantage - netting a first-half hat-trick and 17 FPL points for managers who stuck with him. Jesus may not return from injury until December.
The challenge for Nketiah remains earning the trust of his manager and rotation once Jesus returns, so those considering buying might want to hold off to see how he fares against Eddie Howe’s less accommodating defence. If he impresses again then the cut-price forward - leading the line in one of the top attacks in the Premier League and priced at less than £6m - will be an extremely attractive option.
Callum Wilson (FWD, £7.8m)
Wilson is an extremely talented striker and one of the most efficient finishers in the Premier League. But like Nketiah, the problem for FPL managers keen to pick the England international in their line-ups has been competition for places – specifically from Alexander Isak. Howe has been reluctant to choose both at the same time, but both are likely to come off the bench when not selected, making it hard to trust either with a place in your fantasy XI.
However, Isak has picked up a groin injury which is expected to keep him on the sidelines for the majority of November, providing Wilson with a clear runway to a significant uptick in minutes and therefore opportunity to deliver fantasy points. He has three goals in his last two appearances, including a brace in the 2-2 draw against Wolves in Gameweek 10.
A home fixture against Arsenal isn’t the easiest in Gameweek 11, but a trip to the south coast to face a porous Bournemouth defence followed by a home match-up against Chelsea could prove more fruitful.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (FWD, £5.8m)
Whisper it quietly, but Everton might actually be a mid-table Premier League side. That might not sound like much but their players are priced for a relegation dogfight in FPL. The growing body of evidence that won’t be the case – most recently in their impressive 1-0 win at West Ham in Gameweek 10 – means their players need to be reassessed.
The addition of Jack Harrison from Leeds United has added extra quality out wide, increasing the goalscoring opportunities for the talented but injury-prone Calvert-Lewin. The England striker took his goal brilliantly at the London Stadium on Sunday and, if fit, is a player you’d expect to push beyond 15 goals over the course of a season (he bagged 16 goals and 6 assists in 2020/21, the last campaign where he didn’t spend the majority on the treatment table).
A run of fixtures against Brighton (H), Crystal Palace (A), Man United (H) and Nottingham Forest (A) means he’ll have the opportunity to build momentum in the run-up to Christmas. At £5.8m, this is likely to be the cheapest you’ll be able to get Calvert-Lewin in your FPL team.
A quick note on Jarrad Branthwaite – he’s just £4m in FPL, he’s a brilliant footballer and Everton are increasingly looking a stout defensive unit. I didn’t think I’d say this at the start of the season, but there’s a genuine case for having two Everton players in your fantasy squad.
Fallers
Marcus Rashford (MID, £8.7m)
You keep thinking Manchester United can’t look any worse – and they keep surprising you. There’s no shame in being turned over by Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City side, but the manner of the 3-0 thumping on Sunday – in particular in the second half – was deeply worrying.
The rot that Erik Ten Hag appeared to be tackling last season was simply lying dormant. United look like they could concede every time the opposition attack and are insipid going forward.
Rashford’s poor start to the season has epitomised the malaise at Old Trafford. The England winger was a must-pick in FPL last season and his 17-goal, 7-assist campaign more than justified a £9m price tag to kick off the 2023/24 campaign. Just one goal and three assists in 10 starts has left backers disappointed and his underlying data suggests this isn’t a significant underperformance.
Fixtures against Fulham (A), Luton (H) and Everton (A) give some hope of a turn in fortunes, but there has been no evidence on the pitch this is about to materialise.
Nicolas Jackson (FWD, £6.8m)
Speaking of malaise, Chelsea’s vast improvement in the 2-2 draw against Arsenal at Stamford Bridge in Gameweek 9 may have been a mirage. In Gameweek 10, despite creating numerous chances against Brentford, they were once again wasteful in front of goal and eventually slumped to a 2-0 defeat against their West London rivals.
Jackson returned to the starting line-up but looked lost leading the line. His lack of movement was given the Alan Shearer treatment on Match of the Day and he now has just two goals in 668 Premier League minutes this season.
Things won’t get any easier in the short-term with a trip to White Hart Lane to face Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham followed by the visit of Man City and then another away day at Newcastle. Chelsea players may well become key assets in FPL this season, but now is not the time to bank on a resurgence in fortunes.
Kieran Trippier (DEF, £7m)
Trippier has been sensational in recent weeks, delivering the killer combination of clean sheets, attacking returns and bonus points in fantasy. That run of scoring came to an end against Wolves on Sunday, with Newcastle shipping two goals and looking decidedly leggy after their mid-week Champions League exertions.
A home fixture against Arsenal is almost as tricky as it comes, leaving managers with a genuine decision over whether to start the right-back in Gameweek 11.
Fixtures against Bournemouth (A), Chelsea (H) and Man United (H) are middling based on form this season, which might be just enough for the 50% of FPL managers who have him in their side to retain his services over the coming weeks. But keep an eye on that goals conceded column, because assists alone are unlikely to be enough to justify Trippier’s premium price tag.
That’s it for this edition. Thanks for reading and good luck in Gameweek 11…
Graham and Tom
