What you need to know for Gameweek 28
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Hello and welcome to Fantasy Gameweek. This is our round-up of everything you need to know for Gameweek 28 in Fantasy Premier League. It includes the news that matters, the key data from Impect, our data partner, and the risers and fallers.
The deadline for transfers and changes to your team for Gameweek 28 is 11am UK time on Saturday March 9. Bournemouth and Luton have two games this week.
Here are four of the key news stories this week:
-Dominic Solanke hasn’t trained fully this week due to an ongoing injury but is expected to play in Bournemouth’s matches. More here
-Mo Salah came off the bench in Liverpool’s midweek win against Sparta Prague in the Europa League as he stepped up his return from injury. More here
-Newcastle’s Kieran Tripper is injured and will miss their next two matches. More here
-Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli are fit to play for Arsenal this weekend despite being subbed off in their Gameweek 27 match against Sheffield United. More here
These are the fixtures for Gameweek 28:
These are the most transferred-in players this week so far:
And these are the transfers-out:
Now for the key data from Impect, our data partner. This is what has happened in the last ten gameweeks…
These are the top-five and bottom-five teams for xG per game - in other words, the best and worst attacks. As a reminder, xG measures the quality of chances that a team creates by attributing a score to each chance based on the likelihood of it being a goal. For example, if the chance was certain to be a goal then it would get an xG score of 1.
Best
Liverpool - 2.64
Man City - 2.13
Arsenal - 2.1
Tottenham - 1.94
Aston Villa - 1.85
Worst
Burnley - 0.93
Crystal Palace - 0.97
Sheffield United - 1.13
Man United - 1.29
West Ham - 1.37
And here are the best and worst for xG per game conceded - in other words, the best and worst defences:
Best
Arsenal - 0.58
Man City - 0.75
Liverpool - 1.24
Brighton - 1.29
Bournemouth - 1.43
Worst
Newcastle - 2.4
Burnley - 1.99
Brentford - 1.97
West Ham - 1.92
Luton - 1.97
Moving on to the players, these are the top-10 for Offensive Impect, which measures the attacking effectiveness of a player for their team when they are on the pitch:
Ollie Watkins - 100
Phil Foden - 99.1
Bukayo Saka - 98.3
Cole Palmer - 97.4
Gabriel Martinelli - 96.6
Kai Havertz - 95.7
Rodri - 94.9
Ivan Toney - 94
Martin Odegaard - 93.2
Douglas Luiz - 92.3
And these are the players with the highest xG:
Dominic Solanke - 7.17
Darwin Nunez - 5.89
Bukayo Saka - 5.78
Erling Haaland - 5.13
Ollie Watkins - 5.04
Phil Foden - 4.85
Richarlison - 4.61
Julian Alvarez - 4.4
Luis Diaz - 4.26
Mo Salah - 4.15
Next, these are the post-shot xG rankings. As a reminder, post-shot xG measures the quality of a chance after the shot has been taken, so it also takes into account the quality of the shot:
Darwin Nunez - 7.03
Ollie Watkins - 6.53
Bukayo Saka - 5.83
Julian Alvarez - 5.54
Dominic Solanke - 5.5
Rasmus Hojlund - 5.27
Mo Salah - 5.26
Richarlison - 5.19
Phil Foden - 5.06
Rodrigo Muniz - 4.64
These are the top-10 players for bypassed defenders, which measures how many opposition defenders a player takes out of the game with their passing or dribbling. It is a way to track a player’s attacking influence in a game:
Pascal Gross - 11
Ross Barkley - 11
Martin Odegaard - 11
Bruno Guimaraes - 10
Bruno Fernandes - 10
Christian Norgaard - 9
Kieran Trippier - 9
Rodri - 9
Dwight McNeil - 9
Cole Palmer - 9
Now let’s see the top-10 players for bypassed defenders receiving, which measures how many opposition defenders were taken out of the game when a player receives the ball. It measures the quality of the attacking positions that a player gets themselves in with the ball:
Dominic Calvert-Lewin - 21.7
Ollie Watkins - 19.9
Ivan Toney - 18.8
Jean-Philippe Mateta - 16.5
Dominic Solanke - 14.2
Luis Diaz - 13.3
Kai Havertz - 12.4
Jarrod Bowen - 11
Alejandro Garnacho - 10.7
Phil Foden - 10.4
Lastly, these are the top defenders for Offensive Impect, which shows the defenders who are contributing to attacks, which is really useful to know for FPL:
Gabriel - 100
Alfie Doughty - 98.1
Lewis Dunk - 96.2
Chiedozie Ogbene - 94.2
Kieran Trippier - 92.3
Fabian Schar - 90.4
Marcos Senesi - 88.5
Malo Gusto - 86.5
Mads Roerslev - 84.6
Max Kilman - 82.7
Finally, let’s look at the risers and fallers…
Risers
Rodrigo Muniz (FWD, £4.5m)
Muniz looks the real deal and is available for a snip in FPL. The Brazilian striker is spearheading a vibrant Fulham attack and has five goals and an assist in his last five appearances. While there is the potential for competition for minutes from Chelsea loanee Armando Broja and Raul Jimenez, the former has yet to deliver consistently at the top level while the latter is injured until the end of March. There are three away games in the next four, but they are all against sides that have shipped plenty of goals this season. Get in now before that price shoots up.
Ollie Watkins (FWD, £9m)
If Muniz has burst onto the scene, Watkins has cemented himself over a long period of time as one of the most reliable performers in FPL. Following a mid-season baron spell by his lofty standards, the England international has five goals in his last three appearances, including two clinical finishes in Gameweek 27 against Luton Town. Watkins is the now top points scorer in fantasy with 183 points and there is a strong argument to set and forget him in your side. Upcoming fixtures against Tottenham (H), West Ham (A) and Wolves (H) are likely to prove fruitful.
Justin Kluivert (MID, £4.6m)
Bournemouth’s home double-gameweek against Sheffield United and Luton Town is about as juicy as it gets in FPL, with both sides shipping goals at an alarming rate. Dominic Solanke is the obvious pick to benefit and will likely earn the captain’s armband from most FPL managers. For those looking to double-up, Kluivert is a real talent who looks to be adjusting to life in the Premier League. He has a strong career goalscoring record, has started each of the last three fixtures and scored in the 2-0 win against Burnley in Gameweek 27.
Fallers
Pervis Estupinan (DEF, £5m)
If you’re aiming for an FPL mini-league title, having value defenders who offer the opportunity of returns at both ends of the pitch is a must. Estupinan delivered on both fronts last season but in 2023/24, both he and Brighton’s defence have regressed. The Peruvian’s last attacking return was in Gameweek 19 and Brighton have shipped 11 goals in their last six fixtures, including three against Fulham in Gameweek 27. Perhaps most worryingly, Estupinan has been benched multiple times. A home match-up with Nottingham Forest might be appetising enough to keep the faith for one more gameweek, but after that the fixtures get trickier.
Malo Gusto (DEF, £4.2m)
Gusto offers some appeal as a low-cost starter for a star-studded Chelsea team, but the Blues have had a nasty habit of conceding goals, particularly recently. Gusto has at least contributed at the other end, with five assists this campaign, but he only merits an FPL start against the weakest opposition.
Jordan Pickford (GK, £4.6m)
Pickford has kept the same number of clean sheets as Manchester City’s Ederson this season. FPL managers who have stuck with Pickford will, justifiably, point to this statistic as a strong reason to keep the faith with the England stopper. Everton have been going backwards in the last few weeks, however, and shipped three goals at Goodison Park in Gameweek 27. Trips to Manchester United, Bournemouth and Newcastle in their next three fixtures hold out little hope for positive returns.
That’s it for this edition. Thanks for reading and good luck in Gameweek 28.
Graham and Tom
