What you need to know for Gameweek 21
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Hello and welcome back to Fantasy Gameweek. Happy New Year to all our readers!
This is our round-up of everything you need to know for Gameweek 21 in Fantasy Premier League. It includes the news that matters, the key data from Impect, our data partner, and the risers and fallers.
The deadline for transfers and changes to your team for Gameweek 21 is 6.15pm UK time on Friday January 12 - that’s today!
Here are some of the key news stories this week:
-Mo Salah and Son Heung-min are away on international duty for the foreseeable future, so this is a big week in FPL as managers are making multiple transfers. Jurgen Klopp has suggested that Darwin Nunez could play a bigger role with Salah away. More here
-Trent Alexander-Arnold is also out for three weeks with an injury. More here
-And Erling Haaland’s fitness remains a mystery, but there is a chance he could return for Manchester City this weekend. More here
These are the fixtures for Gameweek 21. The matches are spread over two weekends so teams can enjoy a winter break:
These are the most transferred-in players this week so far:
And these are the transfers-out:
Now for the key data from Impect, our data partner. We are halfway through the season now so we are going to tweak the timings on our data. Instead of looking at what has happened since the start of the season, this is what has happened since Gameweek 14 at the start of December.
These are the top-five and bottom-five teams for xG per game. As a reminder, xG measures the quality of chances that a team creates by attributing a score to each chance based on the likelihood of it being a goal. For example, if the chance was certain to be a goal then it would get an xG score of 1.
Best
Liverpool - 2.82
Newcastle - 2.12
Arsenal - 2.1
Tottenham - 1.99
Chelsea - 1.98
Worst
Luton - 0.82
Sheffield United - 0.92
Burnley - 1.13
Nottingham Forest - 1.19
Everton - 1.26
And here are the best five and worst five for xG per game conceded:
Best
Arsenal - 0.82
Liverpool - 0.97
Bournemouth - 1.04
Man City - 1.09
Aston Villa - 1.12
Worst
Newcastle - 2.68
Luton - 2.06
Tottenham - 1.93
Burnley - 1.88
Nottingham Forest - 1.86
Moving on to the players, these are the top-10 for Offensive Impect, which measures the attacking effectiveness of a player for their team when they are on the pitch. This data should be used in conjunction with how many minutes these players are on the pitch…
Cole Palmer - 100
Dominic Solanke - 99.2
Heung-Min Son - 98.4
Phil Foden - 97.6
Elijah Adebayo - 96.9
Matheus Cunha - 96.1
Ollie Watkins - 95.3
Michael Olise - 94.5
Mo Salah - 93.7
Dejan Kulusevski - 92.9
And these are the players with the highest xG….
Dominic Solanke - 6.65
Mo Salah - 5.27
Darwin Nunez - 3.68
Richarlison - 3.38
Joao Pedro - 3.3
Julian Alvarez - 3.28
Miguel Almiron - 3.14
Matheus Cunha - 2.97
Bukayo Saka - 2.95
Gabriel Jesus - 2.93
Next, these are the post-shot xG rankings. As a reminder, post-shot xG measures the quality of a chance after the shot has been taken, so it also takes into account the quality of the shot:
Dominic Solanke - 7.61
Mo Salah - 7.34
Jarrod Bowen - 4.63
Joao Pedro - 4.05
Matheus Cunha - 3.89
Julian Alvarez - 3.54
Elijah Adebayo - 3.24
Gabriel Jesus - 3.21
Raul Jimenez - 3.17
Richarlison - 3.16
These are the top-10 players for bypassed defenders, which measures how many opposition defenders a player takes out of the game with their passing or dribbling. It is a way to track a player’s attacking impact in a game:
Bruno Fernandes - 11
Martin Odegaard - 11
Trent Alexander-Arnold - 10
Pascal Gross - 10
Dwight McNeil - 9
Michael Olise - 9
Cole Palmer - 9
Dejan Kulusevski - 9
Pablo Sarabia - 9
Andreas Pereira -9
Now let’s see the top-10 players for bypassed defenders receiving, which measures how many opposition defenders were taken out of the game when a player receives the ball. It measures the quality of the attacking positions that a player gets themselves in with the ball:
Elijah Adebayo - 16
Ollie Watkins - 15.2
Dominic Solanke - 13.9
Jarrod Bowen - 12.7
Matheus Cunha - 12.4
Heung-Min Son - 12.3
Joao Pedro - 12.2
Gabriel Jesus - 12.2
Cameron Archer - 12
Julian Alvarez - 11.9
Lastly, these are the top defenders for Offensive Impect, which shows the defenders who are contributing to attacks, which is really useful to know for FPL:
Marcos Senesi - 100
Alfie Doughty - 98.1
Trent Alexander-Arnold - 96.2
Ben Davies - 94.3
Pedro Porro - 92.5
Levi Colwill - 90.6
Craig Dawson - 88.7
Kyle Walker - 86.8
Virgil Van Dijk - 84.9
Tyrick Mitchell - 83
Finally, let’s look at the risers and fallers…
Risers
Cole Palmer (MID,£5.7m)
Despite not playing the first three games of this campaign (when he was on the books at Manchester City) and then appearing for a combined 77 minutes from the bench in his first three games for Chelsea, Palmer is the ninth top-scoring midfielder in FPL this season. He has delivered 5.4 points per match, aided in part by being handed penalty-taking duties. In Chelsea’s Gameweek 20 match-up with Luton Town he took his two goals brilliants and assisted another on his way to a season-high 18 points. Palmer is now delivering consistent, elite returns and remains available for less than £6m. If you are one of the two-thirds of teams who still don’t have him, don’t wait any longer.
Phil Foden (MID, £7.9m)
England international Foden has always shone based on the underlying data, but Pep Guardiola’s habit of rotating even superstar players has meant picking him came with extra risk. This season, Foden has started 17 of 19 Premier League fixtures, delivering five goals and six assists. Foden has attacking returns in each of the last three games (two assists and two goals) and recorded a season-high 12 points in City’s 2-0 home win against Sheffield United in Gameweek 20. The return of Kevin de Bruyne and possibly Erling Haaland increases the rotation risk, but Foden remains a top option for managers looking to replace Son Heung-min and/or Mohamed Salah.
Richarlison (MID, £6.9m)
We had high hopes for Spurs forward Richarlison, classed as a midfielder in FPL, coming into this campaign. After a settling-in period following his transfer from Everton, he is starting to deliver on his obvious potential. Richarlison has five goals in his last five games and, crucially, has started each of those fixtures. Son’s absence makes Ange Postecoglou’s side less of a threat, although their Australian manager will hope the addition of former Chelsea striker Timo Werner will help plug that gap. Either way, at £6.9m, Richarlison is an attractive option ahead of a trip to face a shaky Manchester United defence in Gameweek 21, followed by a home fixture against out-of-form Brentford and then Everton at Goodison Park.
Fallers
Ben White (DEF, £5.6m)
Defenders are simply not delivering in FPL this campaign. In fact, only Trent Alexander-Arnold and Kieran Trippier feature in the top 20 points scorers – and you’ll have to pay a premium to recruit either of them. Arsenal full-back White, priced on the fringe of premium at £5.6m, has managed one goal and two assists this campaign, which is no disaster but no great shakes either. However, Arsenal have regressed defensively, conceding two goals against both West Ham United and Fulham in the last two Gameweeks. At White’s price you want attacking returns and a decent chance of clean sheets – and the England international isn’t offering either at the moment.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (FWD, £5.8m)
There is huge potential with Everton striker Calvert-Lewin. He is a near-guaranteed starter and playing under a manager who likes to attack from wide with crosses into the box – his biggest strength. He is also priced keenly at just £5.8m. However, Calvert-Lewin looks devoid of confidence at the moment and has just three goals and an assist to his name this season. He is a big expected goals (xG) underperformer, so there is a chance he will rediscover his form of previous seasons, but until we see evidence it’s a watching brief only.
Jarrod Bowen (MID, £8.1m)
We await news on Bowen’s ankle injury ahead of West Ham’s Gameweek 21 trip to face Sheffield United at Bramall Lane, with FPL putting his chances of playing at 50/50. However, it is the injury to influential playmaker Lucas Paqueta, coupled with Mohamed Kudus being away at the African Cup of Nations, that pushes the winger into the Fallers this week.
That’s it for this edition. Thanks for reading and good luck in Gameweek 21
Graham and Tom