What you need to know for Gameweek 38
The final week in Fantasy Premier League!
Hello and welcome to Fantasy Gameweek for the final time this season. This is our round-up of everything you need to know for Gameweek 38 in Fantasy Premier League, the final week of the season. It includes the news that matters, the key data from Impect, our data partner, and the risers and fallers.
The deadline for transfers and changes to your team for Gameweek 38 is 2.30pm UK time on Sunday May 19.
Here are three key news stories this week:
-Pep Guardiola was evasive over whether Kevin De Bruyne will be fit to play for Man City this weekend. More here
-Ederson is definitely out after fracturing his eye socket. More here
-It sounds like Bukayo Saka should be fit for Arsenal despite going off injured against Manchester United. More here
These are the fixtures for Gameweek 38. We are travelling in Europe this week and the kick-off times below are in local time. The kick-off time in the UK is actually 4pm.
These are the most transferred-in players this week so far:
And these are the transfers-out:
Now for the key data from Impect, our data partner. This is what has happened in the last ten gameweeks…
These are the top-five and bottom-five teams for xG per game - in other words, the best and worst attacks. As a reminder, xG measures the quality of chances that a team creates by attributing a score to each chance based on the likelihood of it being a goal. For example, if the chance was certain to be a goal then it would get an xG score of 1.
Best
Liverpool - 2.55
Man City - 2.52
Chelsea - 2.13
Newcastle - 2.12
Tottenham - 1.83
Worst
Luton - 0.7
Wolves - 1.19
Brighton - 1.21
Nottingham Forest - 1.25
Everton - 1.28
And here are the best and worst for xG per game conceded - in other words, the best and worst defences:
Best
Arsenal - 0.81
Man City - 1.11
Brentford - 1.13
Crystal Palace - 1.16
Nottingham Forest - 1.16
Worst
Burnley - 2.42
Luton - 2.26
Man United - 2.18
West Ham - 2.16
Aston Villa - 2.03
Moving on to the players, these are the top-10 for Offensive Impect, which measures the attacking effectiveness of a player for their team when they are on the pitch:
Cole Palmer - 100
Erling Haaland - 99.6
Bruno Fernandes - 99.1
Michael Olise - 98.7
Jean-Philippe Mateta - 98.3
Phil Foden - 97.8
Kai Havertz - 97.4
Dominic Calvert-Lewin - 97
Kevin De Bruyne - 96.6
Alexander Isak - 96.1
And these are the players with the highest xG per game:
Erling Haaland - 1.2
Cole Palmer - 0.91
Mo Salah - 0.82
Alexander Isak - 0.82
Rodrigo Muniz - 0.73
Julian Alvarez - 0.68
Cody Gakpo - 0.68
Darwin Nunez - 0.67
Dominic Calvert-Lewin - 0.59
Oli McBurnie - 0.56
Next, these are the post-shot xG per game rankings. As a reminder, post-shot xG measures the quality of a chance after the shot has been taken, so it also takes into account the quality of the shot:
Erling Haaland - 1.31
Dominic Calvert-Lewin - 0.91
Cole Palmer - 0.89
Alexander Isak - 0.83
Mo Salah - 0.8
Rodrigo Muniz - 0.79
Jean-Philippe Mateta - 0.77
Antony - 0.71
Phil Foden - 0.7
Bruno Fernandes - 0.69
These are the top-10 players for bypassed defenders, which measures how many opposition defenders a player takes out of the game with their passing or dribbling. It is a way to track a player’s attacking influence in a game:
Kevin De Bruyne - 14
Bruno Fernandes - 13
Cole Palmer - 13
Trent Alexander-Arnold - 12
Enzo Fernandes - 12
Alex Iwobi - 12
Mo Salah - 11
Eberechi Eze - 11
Michael Olise - 11
Marcos Senesi - 10
Now let’s see the top-10 players for bypassed defenders receiving, which measures how many opposition defenders were taken out of the game when a player receives the ball. It measures the quality of the attacking positions that a player gets themselves in with the ball:
Jean-Philippe Mateta - 21.6
Erling Haaland - 21.1
Rodrigo Muniz - 21.1
Nicolas Jackson - 20.8
Dominic Calvert-Lewin - 20.1
Darwin Nunez - 17.7
Kai Havertz - 16.9
Hee-Chan Hwang - 16.9
Danny Welbeck - 16.8
David Datro Fofana - 16.7
Lastly, these are the top defenders for Offensive Impect, which shows the defenders who are contributing to attacks, which is really useful to know for FPL:
Marcos Senesi - 100
Andy Robertson - 99
Josko Gvardiol - 97.9
Thiago Silva - 96.9
Ben White - 95.9
Trent Alexander-Arnold - 94.8
Kyle Walker - 93.8
Pedro Porro - 92.8
Joachim Andersen - 91.8
Sergio Reguilon - 90.7
Finally, let’s look at the risers and fallers…
Risers
Michael Olise (MID, £5.7m)
Crystal Palace look transformed under Oliver Glasner, although the new manager has been helped by his talented attack staying fit and the signing of brilliant central midfielder Adam Wharton from Blackburn Rovers. It’s a bit of a coin-flip between Eberiche Eze and Olise in FPL. Both midfielders are well-positioned to deliver big points against an Aston Villa side that has been vulnerable defensively and has spent the last few days celebrating after securing Champions League football. Olise is set-up well for the game after double-digit returns in back-to-back gameweeks.
Josko Gvardiol (DEF, £5.2m)
Croatian centre-back turned attacking left-back Gvardiol has been a revelation, scoring four goals in his last six starts during Manchester City’s relentless march towards another Premier League title. A final-day fixture at home against West Ham United offers the opportunity for more fantasy returns at both ends of the pitch.
Leandro Trossard (MID, £6.6m)
Trossard’s excellent form means he has now edged out Gabriel Martinelli as first-choice on the left side of Arsenal’s excellent forward line. The Belgian has delivered attacking returns in four of his last five outings, including a goal and 11 FPL points in the Gunners’ 1-0 win at Old Trafford against a poor Manchester United side in Gameweek 37. Everton are no push-overs at the moment but you’d still back Mikel Arteta’s side to win comfortably. Trossard has genuine differential appeal in FPL.
Fallers
Emiliano Martinez (GK, £5.2m)
Another three goals shipped by Aston Villa, including an own goal from the Argentinian stopper, means there’s simply no case for keeping him in your side, particularly with in-form Crystal Palace as their final-day opponents.
Darwin Nunez (FWD, £7.5m)
Cody Gakpo looks to be Jurgen Klopp’s first-choice centre forward, turning Nunez from an appealing differential to a wild gamble in FPL.
Dan Burn (DEF, £4.7m)
Newcastle’s form has been decent but they haven’t kept a clean sheet in five fixtures and managed to concede three against a very average Manchester United attack on Wednesday evening. Up next are Brentford, who have Bryan Mbeumo firing again and will be keen to end their campaign on a positive note.
That’s it for this edition. Best of luck in Gameweek 38 and the battle to win your mini-league. Thanks for reading this edition and throughout the season!
Best
Graham and Tom