What we learned from FPL Gameweek 3...
The dangers of ‘Red light, green light’ in FPL…
Squid Game, the South Korean TV sensation which took the world by storm last year, features 456 down and out ‘contestants’ from various walks of life taking on a series of deadly challenges.
Each time a contestant (or multiple contestants) perishes in a challenge, a huge, spherical glass ball above them fills with cash. The final survivor gets the contents of the glass ball – a whopping ₩45.6 billion (roughly £30 million).
The first and arguably most iconic game is brought to us in Episode 1. ‘Red light, green light’ is fiendishly simple and utterly barbaric.
Contestants are told they need to get from one side of the dusty course to the other without being spotted by the giant, doll-like figure (pictured above). While the doll’s back is turned, contestants are given a ‘green light’ and are able to move safely.
However, as soon as the doll turns to face them and the ‘red light’ is activated, the contestants must not move. Any who do are mercilessly gunned down.
For those who have yet to watch Squid Game or the ‘Red light, green light’ episode, imagine playing ‘What time is it Mr Wolf?’ with your mates in primary school - but with motion sensors and automatic weapons.
Red fixture, green fixture…
It probably says a lot about my character that a horrific, winner-takes-all blood battle immediately made me think of FPL.
In particular, the extent to which managers who overly rely on the game’s ‘Red fixture, green fixture’ guidance – referred to as the ‘Fixture Difficulty Rating’ or FDR system – risk failing to consider other factors which could impact a player or team’s potential returns.
In FPL’s own words: “The FDR is based on a complex algorithm developed by FPL experts.
“A set of formulas process key Opta data variables, along with each team's home and away form for the past six matches, to generate a rank for the perceived difficulty of each Gameweek opponent.
“The FDR is designed to help FPL managers plan their transfer and team selection strategy. It is reviewed on a weekly basis and updated as the season progresses.”
These slightly mysterious rankings are then converted into colours, with green denoting an ‘attractive’ fixture, red an ‘unattractive’ fixture and grey a ‘neutral’ fixture. There is also a deep red colour for really difficult fixtures, such as Manchester City away.
Any algorithm – which of course will rely on historical data to reach a conclusion - should be treated as a tool to help you make your own decisions, rather than a statement of truth. That is certainly the case with the FDR system.
Take Leeds United’s upcoming run of fixtures below…
A blind follower of FDR might lump on Leeds players based on the fact there are four green fixtures coming up. Based on their performance against Chelsea at the weekend (more on that in a moment), that might be a perfectly sensible move.
However, Brighton have the stingiest defences in the league this season, having conceded just one goal in three games, while Brentford’s last home game saw them hammer Man United 4-0. There is a case that both should, at the very least, be considered ‘grey’ fixtures based on what we’ve seen this season.
You also need to ask yourself exactly which of your players your opponent is a ‘green’ fixture for. Consider Burnley in seasons gone by, a team who would generally have been denoted as a green opponent by FPL.
Burnley were generally difficult to score goals against - particularly at Turf Moor - but also a pretty poor attacking unit.
As such, there is an argument that they should perhaps have been green for your defenders but grey for your attackers. Even that is an oversimplification, however, because you aren’t considering the type of attack your player is part of and the type of team your opponent might usually struggle against.
There are various other factors – most obviously injuries – that simply can’t be summarised perfectly into a single score. Liverpool, for example, might not be the ‘deep red’ opponent FDR suggests without the injured Joel Matip (DEF, £5.9m) and suspended Darwin Nunez (FWD, £9m) (not to mention the recently departed Sadio Mane) in their line-up.
And with that, let’s head to Old Trafford for our review of Gameweek 3…
Are Man United finally about to turn a corner…?
There was just a flickering of a sense that, in Man United’s much-deserved 2-1 win over Liverpool on Monday night, something changed. Harry Maguire (DEF, £4.9m) was out. Cristiano Ronaldo (FWD, £10.4m) was out.
And in their absence, a youthful front-three of Anthony Elanga (MID, £4.9m), Marcus Rashford (MID, £6.4m) and Jadon Sancho (MID, £7.3m) ran riot.
Elanga’s half-time substitution for Anthony Martial (FWD, £6.9m) was surprising and will give FPL manager’s pause for thought when considering whether he’s a bargain waiting to be picked up.
Rashford and Sancho both looked liberated in Ronaldo’s absence, with the former taking his goal confidently and running directly at defenders in a manner we simply didn’t see last season. Rashford has always been a confidence player, so a goal against a top side in a big game could be the catalyst he needs to rediscover his best form.
A lunchtime away fixture against a Southampton team buoyed by an excellent 2-1 away win at Leicester feels like a good test of whether this is yet another false dawn for this undoubtedly talented group of players. Once former Real Madrid midfielder Casemiro (MID, £5m) settles in, the value of United’s defensive assets should also get a boost.
And what of woeful Liverpool…?
While Man United’s performance was full of energy and enthusiasm, Liverpool looked a long way from their vibrant best.
I’d let them off an opening day draw at Fulham - opening days are always full of funny results, particularly against newly promoted sides.
I’d even let them off their Gameweek 2 draw against Crystal Palace, when they dominated the 2nd half despite being down to 10 men.
But a third un-Liverpool-like performance in consecutive weeks has to be taken seriously. Yes United were good, but Liverpool were poor - and that matters when you’re investing big sums in their premium-priced assets.
Mo Salah (MID, £13m) remains a reliable goal threat but struggled to impose himself on the game, while Luis Diaz (MID, £8m) continued where he left off against Palace by dropping deep to get involved in the play. Owners will want to see him spending much more time in and around the opponents’ box in the upcoming fixtures.
However, it is Trent Alexander-Arnold (DEF, £7.5m) and Andy Robertson (DEF, £7m) who are causing the most concern in FPL. To justify the significant outlay both demand, the duo need to offer the combination of attacking upside and defensive solidity.
With neither registering an attacking return and Liverpool’s fragile-looking defence conceding in each of their opening three fixtures, it’s been a painful start to the 2022/23 campaign. Indeed, it’s all been too much for some, with Trent transferred out by over 130,000 FPL managers this week at the time of writing.
While it makes sense to keep a close eye on both - and indeed Liverpool’s performances generally - it’s worth remembering the crucial role played by both full-backs in supplying attacks hasn’t changed.
And it’s Bournemouth next at Anfield, followed by Newcastle (H), Everton (A) and Wolves (H) - potentially a useful tonic to shake off those early-season blues.
But if you’re looking for an attacking full-back…
Those looking for a way out of Trent or Robertson will undoubtedly be turning their attention to North London and Ivan Perisic (DEF, £5.5m). We said last week it might well be Perisic time after his successful cameo at Chelsea, and the Croatian was arguably Spurs’ best player in their 1-0 win against Wolves on Saturday.
His assist/clean sheet/maximum bonus points combo meant he raked in 12 points for those who backed him early. It’s always worth remembering that, while less glamorous, a defender bagging a clean sheet and assist is as valuable as a striker scoring two goals in FPL. It might not feel like it, but that’s the way the points system works.
You can read more about the case for picking Perisic in our team-by-team preview here.
If arrows are very much pointing up on Perisic, they are down on Son Heung-min (MID, £11.9m). Son, who finished behind only Salah in the FPL points charts last season, has registered just one assist in three games.
More worryingly, he has been substituted before the 80-minute mark in the last two - one where Spurs were losing and another where they held a one-goal lead.
Almost 150,000 FPL managers have seen enough and ditched Son, making him the fourth most transferred out player in Gameweek 3 (and two of those above him are suspended). Those who have kept the faith for now will no doubt be expecting a big return at Nottingham Forest this weekend.
The Rodrigo hype is real…
We flagged Rodrigo’s (MID, £6.3m) impressive start to the season last week, and his goal and assist performance against a woeful Chelsea side was enough for over 600,000 FPL managers to make their move ahead of Gameweek 4.
The case for the Spaniard looks strong. He is now playing as a genuine striker for a Leeds side who are outperforming expectations. That means all their attacking assets are in line for an upgrade versus the prices handed to them by FPL.
What’s more, his goal involvements have not been random moments of brilliance or luck - he has been a persistent threat in and around the box in each of the first three games.
The supporting cast have also caught the eye, with Brenden Aaronson (MID, £5.5m) bagging another goal - albeit from an Edouard Mendy (GK, £5m) howler.
As discussed above, Leeds’ fixture list might not be as ‘green’ as FPL would have you believe in the next few weeks - but Rodrigo has so far proven to have value regardless of the opponent.
Quick notes
Reece James (DEF, £6m) - combination of Chelsea being porous defensively and Thomas Tuchel deploying him as a centre-back risks diminishing his potential returns. If that pattern continues, others may be more attractive.
Jack Harrison (MID, £6m) - Leeds midfielder is in just over 2% of FPL teams despite delivering four attacking returns in three games. FPL points fell off last season but could be set for a bounce back under new management.
Pascal Gross (MID, £5.7m) - three attacking returns in three games, including a delightful assist in Brighton’s impressive 2-0 win at West Ham. Still in under 10% of FPL teams despite playing in a more advanced role.
Ivan Toney (FWD, £7.2m) - the Brentford striker’s 8-point FPL return could have been even better but for a marginally offside goal that was disallowed. Looks razor sharp and faces a ropey-looking Everton side next.
Aleksander Mitrovic (FWD, £6.6m) - with a higher quality support cast led by Andreas Pereira (MID, £4.5m), the Serbian is already on course to prove his doubters very wrong this season.
Newcastle United - very, very impressive in 3-3 draw against Man City. Took the game to the champions. Callum Wilson (FWD, £7.4m) and Allan Saint-Maximin (FWD, £6.4m) delivered eye-catching performances but Miguel Almiron (MID, £5m) scored and appears to have secured a starting role on the wing. Possible alternative for managers looking for a low-cost midfield differential.
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