What we learned from FPL Gameweek 14

Newcastle + Liverpool + Man United + West Ham + Scout notes...

Welcome to ‘What we learned’, your weekly guide to the key talking points from the latest slate of Premier League fixtures and how to apply those lessons to your Fantasy Premier League team.

This newsletter aims to use our knowledge of football and data to help you separate new trends from value traps. Tomorrow, you’ll get Graham’s must-read weekly rankings article, which uses Fantasy Gameweek’s algorithm to help you judge which players to invest in and which to dump (or avoid).

Sometimes we will highlight players who performed well but failed to deliver points. Those might be assets who we believe are due a pick-up in fantasy performance based on what we’ve seen.

We will also focus on players who have outperformed expectations and ask whether that outperformance is sustainable. But there will always be a laser-focus on value and helping you win your FPL mini-league.

And so, to Newcastle, a City pulsing with life on the back of renewed optimism at its Mecca, St James’ Park…

Miguel Almiron is almost level on points with KDB…

A long-time favourite of Graham but even he didn’t see this upturn in form coming. Miguel Almiron (MID, £5.6m) is now the 4th top scoring player in FPL. Full stop.

He was at it again on Saturday, bagging a goal, assist and a bonus point as Newcastle swept aside a diabolical Aston Villa outfit 4-0. That’s now seven goals in as many games for the Paraguayan speed merchant.

For context, in 2021/22 Almiron scored one goal in over 1,700 minutes of football. The same player is now on 79 FPL points – 20 more than he garnered last season and just two behind Manchester City’s Kevin de Bruyne (MID, £12.5m) this season.

Now, the big question on everyone’s lips is: can this continue? Or are we at the end of a freakish, unsustainable run of form?

Firstly, it doesn’t have to continue. Almiron is still only £5.6 million in FPL, so much lower returns would justify having him in your team.

Secondly, while he is outperforming his expected goals (xG) score of 4.3 and expected assists (xGA) score of 0.7 (all data courtesy of FBref), four goals and an assist from a sub-£6 million player would remain a very good return. And even with the possibility of a little mean regression, with Alexander Isak (FWD, £6.7m) injured Almiron is a screaming buy in our view.

You probably need more than one Manchester United player in your FPL team…

We’ve spilt a fair amount of ink on Manchester United this season, which reflects the up-and-down nature of their form.

The campaign began with optimism, in particular for Marcus Rashford (FWD, £6.6m), whose £6.5 million starting price tag looked low based on his record and position (if you assumed 2021/22 was a blip rather than the new normal).

That turned to despair as Erik Ten Hag’s attempt to implement a high-octane, passing style of football appeared to be imploding before our eyes, most notably away at Brentford.

However, shrewd signings, a renewed swagger and consistency of selection at Old Trafford means we are now confident enough to say you should consider having more than one United player in your team.

Another clean sheet means United’s defenders (not to mention David De Gea (GK, £4.9m) between the sticks) simply have to be on your radar, and Diogo Dalot (DEF, £4.8m) delivered another 3-point bonus haul against West Ham in Gameweek 14. There is now an argument for including both Dalot and Luke Shaw (DEF, £4.7m) in your line-up, with fixtures against Aston Villa (A) and Fulham (A) coming up.

Rashford is the obvious pick further forward, particularly as Cristiano Ronaldo is now no longer a guaranteed starter and with Bruno Fernandes suspended. Jadon Sancho (MID, £7.2m) and Antony (FWD, £7.6m) both have bags of talent, but it’s hard to justify spending more on either given their relatively inferior goal threat.

You probably need less than one Liverpool player in your FPL team…

Urgh. Liverpool. Grim.

We said their defensive assets couldn’t be trusted after a 1-0 reversal at lowly Nottingham Forest, and a 2-1 defeat at home against Leeds United only reinforces that opinion.

However, it’s not just at the back that Liverpool have been consistently underwhelming. Roberto Firmino (FWD, £8.1m) has gone off the boil in the last few Gameweeks and Darwin Nunez (FWD, £8.9m) continues to blow cold as often he does hot.

Mo Salah (MID, £12.8m) scored at the weekend and has four goals and four assists in 12 Premier League games. That isn’t exactly a disaster but it isn’t sufficient to justify a £12.8 million outlay – particularly with the number of lower-priced alternatives available.

If you transferred Salah in for Man City’s blank Gameweek, you’re probably clinging to the fact next up is a Tottenham defence that just shipped two goals against Bournemouth. Salah is also an xG underperformer and he’s yet to have a penalty this season – two things which you’d expect to regress to the mean at some point.

On that basis you may want to stick it out until the World Cup before adjusting – but we wouldn’t blame you if you didn’t.

West Ham defenders offer home differential appeal…

Newcastle defenders have understandably been garnering plenty of plaudits and significant FPL ownership among the low-to-mid priced options available.

This is thoroughly deserved, with Kieran Trippier (DEF, £5.9m) the highest-scoring defender as things stand and more than justifying his elevated price tag. Fabian Schar (DEF, £4.9m) sits an impressive fourth overall, while both Sven Botman (DEF, £4.4m) and Dan Burn (DEF, £4.5m) are delivering excellent value at the lower end of the price scale.

However, if you’re looking to differentiate, West Ham have strong underlying statistics, solid form and home fixtures coming up. Their expected goals against (xGA) stands at 12.3 for the season, the third best in the league behind Manchester City (8.9) and Arsenal (10.8).

As discussed earlier, Man United’s defenders – and in particular Shaw and Dalot – have jumped to the front of the queue in FPL in recent weeks, but their next two games are away from home (albeit against very beatable opponents).

West Ham’s next two games, on the other hand, are at home against Crystal Palace and then Leicester City. Those aren’t easy fixtures by any means, but you’d still fancy the Hammers to bag at least one shutout.

They come into this Gameweek following a narrow 1-0 loss at Old Trafford against Man United, who are bang in form. At home, West Ham have two clean sheets in a row, albeit against relatively limited opposition attacks in Bournemouth and Silkeborg in the Europa League.

As always, if you’re buying into West Ham defenders, go for those with the most attacking upside to complement the clean sheet potential. That all points to Aaron Cresswell (DEF, £4.8m), a player with 15 assists and two goals over the last two seasons.

He has failed to deliver any attacking points as of yet this campaign, but his underlying stats suggest that shouldn’t last for much longer.

Quick scout notes

Callum Wilson (FWD, £7.5m) – Wilson, a player we highlighted a couple of weeks ago as a top performer based on the eye-test, talent, opportunity and the underlying data, was exceptional on Saturday, delivering two goals, two assists and 19 FPL points. If you’ve got him, keep him.

Pervis Estupinan (DEF, £4.5m) - strong underlying data performer and another we flagged previously. Turned in an excellent display in 4-1 demolition of Chelsea, bagging an assist and seven points. Offers genuine differential value with fixtures against Wolves (A) and Aston Villa (H) on the horizon.

Rodrigo (MID, £6.3m) – another week, another goal for the Leeds United midfielder-cum-striker. Fixtures against Bournemouth (H) and Spurs (A) should hold no fear – invest in the Spaniard with confidence ahead of the World Cup break.

Reiss Nelson (MID, £4.8m) – an eye-catching breakout performance from the bench in Arsenal’s 5-0 thumping of Nottingham Forest. Could become a relevant option if Saka is ruled unfit this weekend.

Timothy Castagne (DEF, £4.6m) and James Justin (DEF, £4.3m) – back-to-back clean sheets followed by a narrow 1-0 defeat against Man City solidify the position of Leicester’s defensive assets as viable FPL options. Everton (A) and West Ham (A) should hold few fears.

Nathan Patterson (DEF, £4m) – back fit and expected to be in Frank Lampard’s starting XI against Leicester this weekend. Offers attacking possibilities and this defence has been transformed following the additions of Conor Coady and James Tarkowski. Get him in your team early and use the savings to upgrade elsewhere.

Ivan Perisic (DEF, £5.5m) – you’re probably in love with the idea of Perisic rather than the reality at this point. Even with four assists this season, his lack of playing time and Spurs’ leaky backline in recent weeks means the outlay is tough to justify in a competitive position. Only question now is whether injury to Son Heung-min (MID, £11.7m) sees the Croatian deployed as a genuine winger. If not, it might be time to sell.

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Keep an eye out for Graham’s rankings newsletter later this week.

Until then.

Tom and Graham