What we learned from FPL Gameweek 15
Arsenal + the rise of the budget midfielder + the value of key players + scout notes...
Welcome to “What we learned”, your weekly guide to the key lessons from the latest batch of Premier League fixtures and how to apply those lessons to your Fantasy Premier League team.
This newsletter aims to use our knowledge of football and data to help you separate the new trends from the value traps. On Friday, you’ll get Graham’s must-read weekly rankings article, which uses Fantasy Gameweek’s algorithm to help you judge which players to invest in and which to dump (or avoid).
Sometimes we will highlight players who performed well but failed to deliver points. These might be assets who could be due a pick-up in fantasy performance based on what we’ve seen. We will also focus on players who have outperformed expectations and ask whether that outperformance is sustainable.
But week-in, week-out, our aim is to provide you with the tools and information to get the edge in your FPL mini-league.
And with that, let’s head straight to the summit…
Arsenal need to be treated like genuine title contenders…
We now have a 13-game sample size this season - and Arsenal are top of the Premier League, having won 11 of 13 games, drawn one and lost just one.
Since a 3-1 reversal at Old Trafford in September, Arsenal are unbeaten, including impressive victories against Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and, last week, Chelsea.
They have the second most potent attack in the league, with 31 goals scored so far (eight fewer than rivals Manchester City), and the meanest defence, having conceded just 11 (the same number as Newcastle United).
Arsenal’s status as potential title contenders is backed up by the underlying data. The team’s expected goals (xG) stands at 24.1 (2nd in the league), according to Fbref, while their expected goals against (xGA) is 11.2 (also 2nd in the league).
In short: it’s time to stop asking whether or not Arsenal are title contenders. They are. What’s more, Mikel Arteta has barely rotated his players. In FPL, that points to Arsenal assets being viewed more like Liverpool players from the 2021/22 campaign – and on that basis they are an outrageous bargain.
The question now isn’t “do I need three Arsenal players in my FPL line-up?” – the question is “which three Arsenal players will give me the best chance to outscore my mini-league rivals?".
Chelsea, viewed by many as a nailed-on top-four side at the start of the season, registered just one shot on Aaron Ramsdale’s (GK, £4.9m) goal on Sunday at Stamford Bridge. That is yet more compelling evidence that Arsenal defenders need to be bang in the centre of your radar for FPL (as well as a worrying sign for Chelsea’s attacking assets).
The return of Oleksandr Zinchenko (DEF, £5m) at left-back opens up an opportunity to bring in a differential asset with serious attacking upside.
Ben White (DEF, £4.6m) offers less upside but at a relatively low cost, while both Gabriel (DEF, £5.1m) and William Saliba (DEF, £5.3m) have delivered goals, clean sheets and bonus points.
Neither Gabriel nor Saliba offer the upside of, say, Trent Alexander-Arnold (DEF, £7.2m) or Andy Robertson (DEF, £6.7m) last season, but someone like Virgil van Dijk (DEF, £6.5m) from 2021/22 is a fair comparison. If he had been available at less than £5.5 million in FPL, I’d wager you’d want him in your team.
Ramsdale’s FPL performance is, ironically, negatively impacted by the fact he’s facing fewer shots on target, limiting his potential for bonus points. The England international has just three bonus points this season – all garnered against Leeds United in Gameweek 11.
Based on what we have seen, the underlying data and relative certainty of selection, having three Arsenal defenders is not a ridiculous idea - although remember the opportunity cost of that is being unable to pick their attacking players. Gabriel Martinelli (MID, £6.8m) and Bukayo Saka (MID, £8m) are the clear picks of the midfield bunch in FPL, sitting 5th and 6th in the points scored standings, respectively.
The near-60% of FPL managers who own Gabriel Jesus (FWD, £8m) might want to review that decision, given he has failed to score in five Premier League matches (although he has delivered three assists in that spell). His high ownership also means if that baron spell continues, differentiating could pay handsome dividends.
Fulham’s Aleksandar Mitrovic (FWD, £6.9m) and Newcastle’s Callum Wilson (FWD, £7.5m) are excellent alternatives, freeing up cash and space in your team for an extra Arsenal defender or midfielder.
The rise of the Budget midfielder…
Gameweek 15 was yet another where lower cost midfield options delivered blockbuster returns for FPL managers.
Eleven midfielders produced double-digit points at the weekend, with Liverpool’s Mo Salah (MID, £12.7m) the only true premium asset to feature in the group. The next highest-priced player was Leicester’s James Maddison (MID, £8.2m), who bagged two assists and two bonus points in an impressive 2-0 victory away at Everton.
The average price of those 11 players? Just £6.4 million. Take Salah out of the equation and the average price of the other 10 players was roughly £5.8 million.
While some of those might be unlikely to deliver repeat returns for your FPL team, there are a decent number – including the likes of Newcastle’s Miguel Almiron (MID, £5.8m), who scored again against Southampton on Sunday – that are performing consistently and look massively underpriced.
If you look at the top-20 scoring midfielders in FPL this season, only two premium-priced players – Kevin De Bruyne (MID, £12.6m) and Salah – feature, and neither is surging away from the pack (KDB is 8 points ahead of second-placed Almiron and only 24 points clear of 10th placed Wilfried Zaha (MID, £7.5m)).
As we prepare for the World Cup break and with a fresh Wildcard about to enter our back pockets, the rise of the budget midfielder has significant implications. If it continues, a winning strategy could involve cramming your midfield with the best of the low-cost assets and using the inevitable savings to strengthen elsewhere.
A key lesson from Man United’s dire performance against Aston Villa…
Man United’s resurgence under Erik Ten Hag had been one of the key developments in FPL in recent weeks. Defensively the Red Devils looked sound, with Diogo Dalot (DEF, £4.8m)and Luke Shaw (DEF, £4.7m) also offering serious attacking upside.
In the attacking third, United have looked increasingly coherent, although they have failed as yet to turn this threat into gluts of goals and FPL points. Nonetheless, as we flagged last week, Marcus Rashford (MID, £6.7m) is a midfielder playing in an advanced role for a resurgent side with excellent creative players.
Then it all went wrong at Villa Park, with United 2-0 down after 11 minutes and eventually on the end of a deserved 3-1 loss.
Clearly defeats happen, even to the best sides, but some are more predictable than others. And this, in hindsight, was predictable.
United were missing Rafael Varane (DEF, £4.8m) at the back, Bruno Fernandes (MID, £9.8m) as the attacking focal point, and Antony (MID, £7.5m) and Jadon Sancho (MID, £7.2m) out wide. In their place came Victor Lindelof (DEF, £4.3m), Donny van de Beek (MID, £5.1m), Alejandro Garnacho (MID, £4.3m) and Cristiano Ronaldo (FWD, £10.2m). That represents a major downgrade in key positions, and the result was a United team losing its balance at both ends of the pitch.
It might seem obvious, but one of the keys to FPL success is understanding the players that make a side strong. If Varane is out, the United defence is downgraded. If Fernandes is out, the United attack is downgraded (note he returns from suspension this weekend).
United’s Casemiro (MID, £4.9m), N’Golo Kante (MID, £4.8m) at Chelsea and Thomas Partey (MID, £4.8m) at Arsenal are classic examples of this. Players who you might not pick in your FPL squad, but whose absence over an extended period should make you fundamentally reassess the value of their respective teams’ assets.
Quick scout notes
Ivan Perisic (DEF, £5.5m) – last week we said you might want to consider dumping the Croatian…unless he was playing further forward due to the absence of Son Heung-min (MID, £11.6m), Dejan Kulusevski (MID, £8m) and Richarlison (MID, £8.4m). While Perisic played as the second striker and impressed, hitting the woodwork twice in a 2-1 defeat against Liverpool, Kulusevski and Richarlison are expected to return this weekend against Leeds.
Crysencio Summerville (MID, £4.4m) – Leeds have eight goals in three games and look a vibrant attacking threat. Rodrigo (MID, £6.3m) is perhaps the most obvious player to target but Summerville has been the inspiration recently, bagging 26 FPL points in those three fixtures. Spurs, having conceded two goals in each of their last three games, are next up.
Phil Foden (MID, £8.3m) – you might be tempted to sell the City winger after three games on the bench – but that could be a costly mistake. Foden is long overdue a start and next up at the Etihad Stadium are a Brentford side who have conceded seven goals in their last three fixtures.
Michael Olise (MID, £5.4m) – Zaha and Eberechi Eze (MID, £5.7m) are the main men in this Palace attack and worthy of FPL consideration, but the talented Olise is significantly cheaper, has started the last four fixtures and delivered a goal and three bonus points against West Ham on Saturday. Forest away next up is a great opportunity to build on that momentum.
Kaoru Mitoma (MID, £4.9m) – special mention to former FPL favourite Adam Lallana (MID, £4.9m) who rolled back the years on Saturday in delivering 13 points, but the former England international has his minutes managed these days so is a bit of a gamble. Japanese international Mitoma, on the other hand, has a goal and assist in the last two fixtures and passes the eye test with flying colours.
Harry Wilson (MID, £5.7m) – one to keep an eye on rather than an immediate pick. Wilson was sensational alongside Mitrovic in Fulham’s promotion campaign and won the penalty which saw Joao Cancelo (DEF, £7.4m) sent off against Man City on Saturday. Next up are a Man United side smarting from conceding three goals at Villa Park.
Best of luck this Gameweek - the final one before a much-needed winter break for FPL managers.
Tom