What we learned from FPL Gameweek 20...

Brighton buzz + Liverpool slump + Arsenal + a team due an FPL bounce back...

After a six-week World Cup break, we all knew a deluge of FPL fixtures was coming…and what a deluge! Goals. Shocks. Huge points hauls. Last-minute joy/misery.

That means it’s another short turnaround for fantasy football managers, with key decisions to be made ahead of a crucial double Gameweek in Gameweek 23.

So no time to faff about - let’s head to the south coast of England and a Fantasy Gameweek darling…

Believe the Brighton buzz…

Graham Potter’s exit to Chelsea raised some fairly obvious questions about the extent to which Brighton - and more importantly their very reasonably priced FPL assets - would fare under new management.

After a comprehensive 4-1 victory against an abject Everton side in Gameweek 19, those questions were firmly put to bed by the 3-0 demolition job of Liverpool in Gameweek 20.

Much of the post-match analysis focused, perhaps understandably, on the failings of Liverpool (we’ll come to this later in the newsletter). However, this result was as much about Brighton’s brilliance as it was the deficiencies of Jurgen Klopp’s former league winners.

Under Potter, Brighton were defensively solid and easy on the eye, but lacked a cutting-edge. All-too-often, failings in the final third - and in particular in front of goal - meant the Seagull’s Expected Goals (xG) figure (and the table position that implied) was far higher than their actual goals tally.

Under Roberto de Zerbi, that has changed - and in particular during the last two weeks. Against Liverpool, Brighton recorded an overall attacking threat of 2.09, according to Impect data, and post-shot xG of 2.59. Both figures count as ‘very high’ in Impect’s scoring system.

In other words: this was not a fluke.

The most impressive Brighton performer over those two weeks has, out of nowhere, been Solly March. Graham will deep dive into why that has happened and whether these FPL returns - entirely out of keeping with his Premier League career to date - are likely to continue in his newsletter tomorrow.

But with four goals, two assists and 44 points across the last four Gameweeks, the £5.1 million midfielder should definitely be on your radar.

The apparent likely departure of Leandro Trossard means Evan Ferguson has an opportunity to nail down the central striker role in one of the Premier League’s most progressive attacks. Ferguson now has two goals, two assists and 21 points in the last three Gameweeks, and secured back-to-back starts in the last two outings.

With just Danny Welbeck as competition, there is every chance the Irish 18-year-old will be in line for consistent minutes between now and the end of the season. Crucially, the returns we have seen from Ferguson are backed up by strong underlying data - albeit over a relatively small sample size.

We’ve talked about Kaoru Mitoma a fair bit on Fantasy Gameweek and he was once again a standout performer against Liverpool, delivering his third attacking return in as many Gameweeks and being an all-round menace to their troubled defence. This performance is supported by Impect’s data analysis, with Mitoma ranking second in offensive effectiveness within his position group.

And if you’re in the market for differential defenders, we continue to be big fans of Ecuador international Pervis Estupinan, who offers genuine attacking upside and is a clear differential option - particularly with Brighton facing a relatively soft fixture list in the coming weeks.

Liverpool are impossible to trust at the moment…

As good as Brighton were on Saturday, Liverpool were poor and second-best in every conceivable department - from possession to attacking threat, xG and shots at goal.

This is now very clearly a side in transition, with a midfield that is ageing, an attack that is missing key players and new signings who, while promising in patches, have yet to settle into Klopp’s high-octane, high-pressing style.

That in turn has led to Liverpool’s defence - and in particular Trent Alexander-Arnold - being brutally exposed as opposition players time and again pick their way through the press and get into one-on-one situations.

In normal times, someone like Cody Gakpo - an £8 million striker classified as a midfielder but playing upfront - would be a screaming buy in FPL. However, the problems at Anfield are structural and deep, and Klopp himself has suggested it might take until the off-season to really figure them out.

That leaves us with a team with players priced in FPL to challenge for the title but sitting, deservedly, in ninth place, below the likes of Fulham, Brighton and Brentford.

Unless something fundamentally shifts, the level of dysfunction we have seen - both in Gameweek 20 and throughout the season - make it hard to imagine any Liverpool asset becoming a ‘must pick’ in FPL between now and May.

Arsenal are the real deal

This might sound slightly ludicrous given we’re talking about a team that’s top of the league in January, but don’t underestimate just how good Arsenal have been.

The Gunners were dominant in the first half in particular against Tottenham on Sunday, with Martin Odegaard burnishing his credentials as an FPL asset with another goal. Odegaard now has 112 points - right in the ballpark of Kevin de Bruyne, who will set you back £5.4 million more. That trade alone could allow you to upgrade the rest of your side.

This was a game where the underlying stats didn’t really tell the full story. Arsenal’s post-shot xG was 1.45, according to Impect - above average but well below Spurs’ 2.34. This reflects the relatively unlikely nature of Arsenal’s goals - a Lloris howler and a long-range strike from Odegaard - while Spurs drew a couple of very good saves from Aaron Ramsdale in a generally disjointed performance.

Bukayo Saka, who we picked to impress in the wake of the World Cup, was a threat throughout and his performance deserved more than the sole assist it eventually delivered. You probably already have Gabriel Martinelli in your team, but don’t rule out the possibility of an Arsenal midfield double-up, either with Odegaard or Saka.

Eddie Nketiah, who will lead the line at least until Gabriel Jesus returns from injury (expected in early February), remains surprisingly under-owned in FPL given his price and opportunity. The striker proved his Premier League pedigree at the end of last season and has looked good in his last four outings.

Two goals during that spell might explain why he is only in 3.4% of teams, with in-form Manchester United up next on Sunday. An offensive Impect score of 67% compared to rival strikers during that spell isn’t bad but equally perhaps demonstrates that some of his work has been done in less threatening areas of the pitch. Keep an eye on the injury status of Jesus - if it isn’t positive, on February 4 Arsenal travel to relegation candidates Everton.

Leeds a strong candidate for an FPL bounce back…

A final note on a team you might have dismissed from your thinking - Leeds United. Jesse Marsch’s young side might have lost 2-1 at Villa Park last time out, but they looked bright throughout and were extremely unfortunate not to score more goals.

This is supported by the Impect’s data, with Leeds recording an overall attacking threat of 2.11 and post-shot xG of 2.06.

That could make their attacking assets strong candidates for some positive mean regression - particularly with fixtures against Brentford (H) and Nottingham Forest (A) on the horizon.

Rodrigo remains a forward classified as a midfielder and is therefore best placed to deliver returns, while Patrick Bamford’s goalscoring return also brings him into the frame.

Italian winger Wilfried Gnonto offers a high upside budget alternative at £5 million, although his classification as a forward in FPL restricts his potential upside.

Thanks as always for reading. Keep an eye out for Graham’s newsletter - including a data deep dive on three players and his must-read weekly rankings - tomorrow.

Tom