Welcome back!
Christmas preview, rankings and a strategy for FPL from ChatGPT...
Hello everyone and welcome back to Fantasy Gameweek. Here you will find everything you need to compete in your Fantasy Premier League mini-leagues. Remember Erling Haaland? For the last month the football world has revolved around Qatar, Lionel Messi, and, sadly, Harry Kane missing a penalty. Meanwhile, a certain 22-year-old Leeds-born Norwegian striker has had his feet up. Now, Haaland, FPL and Fantasy Gameweek are back…
This is a unique moment in FPL history in that we have unlimited transfers before the next deadline at 11am on Boxing Day. So while the World Cup and Christmas might be on your mind, this is a crucial moment for your FPL season. You can wipe your team and start again before Boxing Day. In fact, alongside the main game, FPL has launched a Second Chance competition that will only track scores from Boxing Day onwards. This means that those who have had a poor start have a chance of winning a different game.
The Premier League matches come thick and fast over Christmas. Gameweek 17 takes place over December 26, 27 and 28. Then Gameweek 18 arrives on December 30, 31 and January 1 before Gameweek 19 on January 2, 3, 4, 5 and 12. An important point to note here - Gameweek 19 is a double Gameweek for Fulham and Chelsea. You can find all the fixtures here.
In terms of what you can expect from Fantasy Gameweek, this week you will receive this edition, which includes a reminder of where we are right now in the Premier League and our latest rankings, and then Tom will look at what we learned from the World Cup and some tips on how to navigate the Christmas fixtures. We hope this sets you up for the Christmas period.
In January, we will be back with you every week and we also have some exciting improvements to share with you that we have been working on over the last month…
Player rankings
Before all that, here is a look at our player rankings so far this season. Our FPGE index (the Fantasy Gameweek Player Evaluator) ranks players on value and upside. This allows you to judge how a player is performing relative to their price and alternative options. This is vital for success in FPL. We all start with £100 million in FPL. The winner is who turns that into the most points. We cannot just pick all the best players, so value and getting the most out of each £1 million is crucial. We should not judge a £10 million player the same as a £5 million one. The FGPE index will help you to compare them.
During the World Cup we have been working on our FPGE algorithm and have made a couple of key changes. Firstly, each player’s upside is now measured by their weekly performance relative to the best performer in any position, not just their own position. This means, for example, that a goalkeeper who top-scores in that position during the week with 6 points will score less than a forward with 20. This should help you make better decisions when comparing players in different positions and deciding how to spread your £100 million across each position.
Secondly, we are dropping the forward-looking weekly opportunity aspect of the rankings. This was where the algorithm took account of the quality of the team the player played for and the opposition they faced in that Gameweek. We are taking this out of the algorithm because FPL is a season-long game, not a weekly game, and focusing on the short-term like this does not reflect the uncertainty and luck that plays a key role in sport week-by-week.
So, here are the rankings. Goalkeepers are in grey, defenders in blue, midfielders in yellow and forwards in red. Players need to have made at least three appearances so far to make the rankings. The FPGE score is calculated by tracking a player’s points per million each week and their performance relative to the overall top scorer each week. You can use the FGPE to judge whether a player is really delivering value for money and it should be used alongside our other analysis to help you make your decisions about transfers and your team.
There is a surprise name on top of the rankings - Bournemouth captain Lloyd Kelly. He hasn’t played since Gameweek 6 but in the five games he did play scored 12,0,1,6 and 4 points. He is now fit again. Kelly’s place at the top of our rankings is partly due to the smaller sample size for him compared to other players - just 5 out of 15 possible games - but nonetheless, he looks an interesting option for at least your bench as the season restarts…
Team rankings
We have been using FiveThirtyEight data through the season to look at the best attacks and defences. FiveThirtyEight measures the quality of attacks and defences through results but also a team’s actual performances - ie chances created and xG - and the quality of the opposition they have played. These are their rankings and scores. Target the teams at the top of both these lists…
Best attack
Man City - 2.9
Liverpool - 2.8
Tottenham - 2.3
Arsenal - 2.3
Man United - 2.3
Chelsea - 2.2
Newcastle - 2.2
Brighton - 2.1
Brentford - 2
Leicester - 2
Leeds - 1.9
Aston Villa - 1.9
West Ham - 1.8
Fulham - 1.8
Southampton - 1.8
Crystal Palace - 1.7
Everton - 1.6
Wolves - 1.6
Bournemouth - 1.6
Forest - 1.5
Best defences
Man City - 0.4
Arsenal - 0.4
Chelsea - 0.5
Newcastle - 0.6
Liverpool - 0.6
West Ham - 0.6
Brighton - 0.6
Man United - 0.7
Aston Villa - 0.7
Tottenham - 0.7
Crystal Palace - 0.7
Leicester - 0.9
Wolves - 0.9
Brentford - 1
Everton - 1
Southampton - 1
Leeds - 1.1
Fulham - 1.1
Forest - 1.1
Bournemouth - 1.3
And finally…
A lighter note to finish this edition. I have spent time over the last month working with OpenAI’s new ChatGPT technology as part of my business newsletter Off to Lunch. For those who don’t know, ChatGPT has just been released and has generated a lot of interest in the tech world. It looks like the most advanced chatbot/AI technology ever to be released for general use. It is basically an advanced internet search engine capable of answering a whole load of questions and working on tasks. You type in a question or request and it will deliver an answer….
So, I asked it a question for Fantasy Gameweek readers: how do you win Fantasy Premier League? This was the response:
Winning Fantasy Premier League requires a combination of skill and luck. Here are a few tips to help you succeed:
Stay up-to-date: Follow the latest news and developments in the English Premier League, including injuries, transfers, and form, to help you make informed decisions about your team.
Make smart transfers: Use your limited number of transfers wisely by considering factors like player form, fixtures, and injuries. Don't be afraid to take risks, but also make sure you have a solid foundation of reliable performers.
Choose your captain and vice-captain carefully: Your captain will score double points for your team in a given gameweek, so choose wisely. Consider factors like the player's form, fixtures, and likelihood of playing.
Manage your budget: Make sure you have a balanced team and don't overspend on any one position. It's generally a good idea to have a mix of expensive and cheap players to maximize your points potential.
Use your bench wisely: Don't neglect your bench players, as they can be valuable assets if you need to make last-minute changes to your team due to injuries or other unforeseen circumstances.
By following these tips and staying active and engaged with your team, you'll have a good chance of success in Fantasy Premier League.
We will help you with all that here at Fantasy Gameweek. Merry Christmas. Tom will be in your inbox shortly…