Who are the Risers and Fallers from FPL Gameweek 3?
Bowen's back, defenders delivering the goods in FPL and two highly-owned Brighton assets given a downgrade...
Hello and welcome to Fantasy Gameweek. Graham is on holiday, so it’s just the one newsletter this week – normal service will be resumed ahead of Gameweek 5.
A reminder the deadline for making your transfers for Gameweek 4 is 18:30 GMT today, ahead of Luton Town’s first ever home Premier League fixture against West Ham.
And it’s an old FPL favourite from the Hammers who features first in this week’s Risers and Fallers…
Risers
Jarrod Bowen (West Ham, MID, £7.1m)
West Ham’s Bowen had become something of a forgotten man in FPL after a breakout campaign in 2021/22, during which he scored 12 and assisted 17 on his way to a mammoth 206 points. He also ended last season on a high, scoring the winning goal in the Europa League final, and looks revitalised in a West Ham side that has surprised most pundits by collecting seven points out of nine available this season. Bowen’s underlying Impect data has been very good in the opening three fixtures, with his best performance coming in the 3-1 win against Brighton in Gameweek 3, when he bagged a goal, an assist and 12 fantasy points. An away fixture against struggling Luton Town in Gameweek 4 means he is a captaincy armband contender, although things get tougher after that with opponents including Liverpool, Manchester City and Newcastle in the next four Gameweeks.
Matty Cash (Aston Villa, DEF, £4.6m)
Cash is a progressive full-back with an eye for goal who we flagged in our pre-season previews as one to watch in the early going. He appears to have nailed down a starting position in Unai Emery’s side and delivered a huge 17 FPL points after scoring a brace in Villa’s 3-1 win at Turf Moor against Burnley. He missed a sitter in Gameweek 1 against Newcastle too, suggesting he has been given license to attack the box by his manager. That is a winning combination in fantasy football, and his £4.6m price tag now looks on the low side.
Raheem Sterling (Chelsea, MID, £7.2m)
Sterling has benefitted from both the departure of positional rivals and the trust placed in him by new manager Mauricio Pochettino, who appears to be building his attack around the England forward. His underlying data has matched his performances (his Offensive Impect score, which measures players’ attacking effectiveness, is comparable to Erling Haaland’s over the first three Gameweeks) and his two goals in Gameweek 3, albeit against a poor Luton Town side, means he is now the fourth top scorer in FPL on 23 points. Aston Villa are the only side with genuine top six aspirations Chelsea face between now and Gameweek 9 – and there are still questions over their defence after an opening day humiliation against Newcastle.
Malo Gusto (Chelsea, DEF, £4.1m)
Reece James’ injury (again) has opened the door for ultra-cheap right-back Gusto – and he marched through it in Gameweek 3, delivering two assists and 14 FPL points in Gameweek 3. He replaced James after his injury in Gameweek 1 and has played all but eight minutes of the subsequent two games. Unsurprisingly, he’s one of the most transferred-in players ahead of an appealing home fixture against Nottingham Forest in Gameweek 4.
Moussa Diaby (Aston Villa, MID, £6.6m)
There are a plethora of intriguing options in the sub-£7m price bracket among midfielders this season in FPL – but we’ve seen enough from Villa’s Diaby to buy into his obvious upside. He possesses searing pace and has cemented himself immediately as the fulcrum of this attack. He has two goals and an assist already this campaign – returns that are supported by strong underlying data. Diaby’s Offensive Impect score is better than 92% of players in his position group, while on FPL’s simple expected goal involvements measures he’s going at an impressive 0.52 per 90 minutes. The sample size is, of course, small, but Villa’s upcoming fixtures are also relatively soft, particularly from Gameweek 8 through to Gameweek 14. In addition, Diaby faces a Liverpool defence missing Virgil Van Dijk this weekend.
Fallers
Pervis Estupinan (Brighton, DEF, £5.3m)
Ecuadorian international Estupinan has been a standout performer in the first three Gameweeks from an attacking perspective, registering a goal and two assists on his way to 19 FPL points. He has also been one of the top attacking performers among defensive Premier League players, based on Impect’s data, since joining Brighton last season. However, the Seagulls have yet to keep a clean sheet in games against Luton, Wolves and West Ham, and conceded significant chances in all three. For defenders to deliver value in fantasy football, you ideally want at least a reasonable possibility of clean sheets to be coupled with the upside of attacking returns. We still love Estupinan, but Brighton’s shaky defence and tricky fixtures means he gets a downgrade.
Joao Pedro (Brighton, FWD, £5.5m)
We also remain fans of Brighton attacker Pedro as a player but he’s been sat on the bench in back-to-back games now. An injury to Julio Enciso might give him a start in Gameweek 4 – but it might not. You can’t live with that kind of uncertainty in FPL, so the 17% of managers who still have him in their side should be lining up an exit strategy.
Kai Havertz (Arsenal, MID, £7.3m)
A third start on the spin for German international Havertz failed to deliver any noticeable improvements in performance in the key attacking areas. His Offensive Impect score, for example, was ‘average’ for his position group for a third game in a row. Perhaps as worryingly, he was substituted after just 55 minutes. With serious competition for places at the Emirates Stadium and plenty of budget FPL options delivering the goods, it’s hard to make a case for keeping Havertz in your side right now.
Gabriel (Arsenal, DEF, £4.8m)
Three games played, zero starts for Gabriel. A turn of events few anticipated at the start of the season, but the 16% of FPL managers persisting with the centre back need to pivot sharpish.
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Good luck in Gameweek 4!
Cheers
Tom