Tips for FPL Gameweek 12

What we learned, rankings and more...

Hello everyone and welcome to the latest edition of Fantasy Gameweek. Gameweek 12 is a midweek round of fixtures and the deadline is tonight at 6pm. With the quick turnaround from Gameweek 11, this is a shorter edition of Fantasy Gameweek than usual. Tom will look at some of the players to watch first, then Graham has the rankings. Remember, Man City and Arsenal have no match in Gameweek 12…

What we learned from Gameweek 11…

Mount your blessings

If you followed our top pick last week, Chelsea’s Mason Mount (MID, £7.7m), you should be sitting relatively pretty for Gameweek 12, despite Arsenal and Manchester City having no fixture.

Mount has impressed all season – even when Chelsea have struggled – but has been particularly threatening since Graham Potter took charge. Having recorded three assists in his previous two outings, Mount bagged a brace against Steven Gerrard’s struggling Aston Villa side on Sunday.

It’s worth noting the double came from a Tyrone Mings (DEF, £4.4m) error and a 25-yard free kick – two goal types you’re unlikely to get week-to-week – and his next two opponents (Brentford and Manchester United) have better defensive units than Villa. However, we’re backing Mount’s talent in a high-class side here, particularly given the absence of Arsenal and Man City players this week.

Mo Salah, no problems?

There was a time when Liverpool’s Mo Salah (MID, £12.7m) would be in the majority of FPL teams, garnering the status of must-pick asset. Not this season, however, with a combination of a high price-tag at the start of £13m, a series of below-par performances and lower-priced alternatives delivering big returns.

However, a £0.3m dip in the Egyptian’s price helps his appeal somewhat, as does his recent form in both the Champions League (record-breaking hat-trick versus Rangers) and Man City at the weekend (brilliantly taken goal and generally looked threatening despite City’s dominance of the ball).

West Ham (H), Nottingham Forest (A) and Leeds United (H) should hold no fear for the Reds in the coming weeks, and at 35% ownership Salah now offers some appeal.

For those looking for a lower cost attacking alternative, Roberto Firmino (FWD, £8.1m) looks your best bet after another unimpressive cameo from big money signing Darwin Nunez (FWD, £8.8m) at the weekend and Diogo Jota (FWD, £8.9m) likely to be ruled out with a hamstring injury.

It’s too early for us to back Liverpool’s usually reliable full-backs, but Andy Robertson (DEF, £6.7m) was at his buccaneering best on Sunday. Another solid defensive outing would bring both him and Trent Alexander-Arnold (DEF, £7.2m) back onto FPL managers’ thoughts.

Solanke-you and goodnight

OK, that sub-heading pun doesn’t work at all, but it’s been a long couple of weeks.

Fantasy Gameweek was out on a limb in our pre-season previews when we suggested Bournemouth’s Dominic Solanke (FWD, £5.8m) could be a genuine FPL option in 2022/23.

After a slow start the former Liverpool and Chelsea striker has come to life under interim manager Gary O’Neil, netting a goal and two assists in his last two games. 

Next up is a Southampton defence that has been anything but reliable in recent weeks, conceding 18 goals in 10 Premier League games this season. 

The fixtures are a bit trickier after this Gameweek, with a trip to West Ham followed by a home game against Antonio Conte’s Tottenham Hotspur, but Solanke’s ultra-low price tag and form make him an attractive differential.

Tross-enomics 

You can probably file our final pick this Gameweek under “Occam’s Razor” – the obvious answer is usually the correct one.

Brighton have generally been good going forward this campaign and Leandro Trossard (MID, £6.9m) is a brilliant footballer. He is also the focal point of their attacking play and bagged an incredible hat-trick at Anfield in Gameweek 9. 

We’re backing him to get on the scoresheet again against a Forest side that have shipped 23 goals so far this season.

One note of caution: after Gameweek 12 Trossard faces Man City (A) and Chelsea (H). However, he has already demonstrated his ability to deliver points against top sides, so don’t let that put you off.

Rankings…

Right, into the rankings. As normal, we start with the players then we look at the teams to target. Man City and Arsenal players are not included, nor are players who are injured or suspended, such as James Maddison. It may be a week to take a four-point hit and use an extra transfer if you are concerned about how many players you are missing. Avoid using your free-hit chip though, there will be better opportunities to use that with double Gameweeks later this season.

Anyway, the players below are ranked on value, upside and their fixtures this week. To do this we use our FGPE algorithm, FPL points and data on teams from FiveThirtyEight…

Attacks to target and avoid (best first)
Liverpool
Chelsea
Brighton
Tottenham
Aston Villa
Newcastle
Leicester
Man United
Leeds
Southampton
Palace
Brentford
Bournemouth
West Ham
Fulham
Everton
Wolves
Forest

Defences to target and avoid (best first)
Brighton
Crystal Palace
Liverpool
Newcastle
Aston Villa
Chelsea
Southampton
Wolves
Tottenham
Leicester
Bournemouth
Everton
Leeds
Man United
Fulham
Brentford
Forest
West Ham

With no Erling Haaland, William Saliba, or Joao Cancelo, Roberto Firmino is top of the rankings. Apart from the Liverpool forward though, Newcastle and Brighton players dominate the top of the leaderboard. This partly reflects their fixtures - Newcastle play Everton at home, Brighton play Forest at home - but also the quality these players have delivered so far this year. With so many absences at the back this week, Kieran Trippier is a must-have for Gameweek 12. He offers the magic combination of clean sheet points and attacking potential. Everton have scored just eight goals all season. Brighton’s match with Forest will be intriguing. How will they approach a match at home under new manager Roberto De Zerbi in which they are heavily favoured? Results have been mixed so far for him - a draw at Liverpool, a defeat at home to Spurs, a loss at Brentford - but this is by the far the easiest match they have played since he was appointed. For Leandro Trossard and Pascal Gross it is the best match-up they could hope for according to the data…

Trossard is the third most-transferred in player ahead of Gameweek 12 for FPL teams. Firmino is fourth, Ivan Toney fifth and Trippier sixth. Ahead of the Brighton midfielder are Mason Mount and Mo Salah. Mount has surged up our rankings since Graham Potter took over at Chelsea and now faces a Brentford team who go from the sublime to the ridiculous defensively. These are the goals that Brentford have conceded in their last five games - 2,3,0,5,0. This might not be as difficult for Chelsea as you think. As for Salah, our rankings suggest his output still doesn’t match his price, although he is now up to 44th. If you are looking for a safe-bet for captain and double points, however, he could be your man…

There are four goalkeepers high up the list this week. Nick Pope, Jose Sa, Robert Sanchez and Neto. They have all been among the best points scorers in their position when they have played this season. Pope and Sanchez have the most attractive fixtures, but Sa is the top-scoring goalkeeper in FPL this season and Neto is benefitting from a stark improvement in Bournemouth’s results since Gary O’Neil replaced Scott Parker as manager. The rankings suggest that Pope is the one you should go with this week, but it’s close…

That’s it for Fantasy Gameweek for Gameweek 12. We will be back later in the week with help and tips for Gameweek 13.