The week Fantasy Premier League exploded...
What we learned from Gameweek 4 + FGPE + Gameweek 5 tips
The rollercoaster of Fantasy Premier League management is back. We have just had a dramatic Gameweek 4 and now go straight into Gameweek 5. A slew of highly-owned stars delivered big points in Gameweek 4, but two prime captaincy candidates registered precisely nothing despite their sides wracking up 13 (THIRTEEN) goals between them.
As it’s a short turnaround this Gameweek (don’t forget your Gameweek 5 transfer deadline is TODAY at 18:00 UK time), we’re keeping this newsletter short and sharp.
You will find what we learned from Gameweek 4, the FGPE index and some players and teams to target in Gameweek 5 all wrapped into one. We start with what we learned by Tom, then into the FGPE by Graham…
You didn’t transfer Trent out before Bournemouth at home…did you?
In life, football and FPL, every now and then you experience the equivalent of the iconic ‘Man getting hit by football’ film in The Simpsons. Mo Salah (MID, £13m) playing 90 minutes of a 9-0 hammering of Bournemouth and failing to register a goal or assist is one such event.
While painful to those who captained him - particularly as Erling Haaland (FWD, £11.8m), probably his most obvious rival for the armband, bagging his first hat-trick for Man City - this was purely random.
Salah contrived to scoop one effort over from underneath the Bournemouth crossbar and failed to hit the target again from close range with the goal at his mercy. The underlying statistics support the case for patience, with Salah having four shots in the game and registering an expected goals (xG) score of 1.29, according to StatsBomb.
Frustrating? Sure. But not a performance that should set any alarm bells ringing. If anything, Liverpool delivering such a brutal hammering lifts the case for choosing FPL’s most expensive asset.
Speaking of frustration, were you one of the 130,000+ FPL managers who transferred Trent Alexander-Arnold (DEF, £7.5m) out following his below-par performance in the 2-1 loss at Old Trafford? If so…ouch. The right-back returned to doing what he does best in Gameweek 4 - namely, attacking.
A goal, an assist and 17 points was serious reward for those who did the obvious thing and stuck with him a bit longer.
Conviction is all well and good when choosing whether or not a player is worth keeping, but timing is everything - and the timing clearly wasn’t right to dump one of the best attacking defenders in FPL history ahead of a game against a side that had conceded seven goals in their previous two games.
Next up for Liverpool is a difficult home fixture against Eddie Howe’s much-improved Newcastle side, then Everton (A) and Wolves (H). That isn’t what you’d call an ‘easy’ run of fixtures, but they are games where you would expect Liverpool to dominate and Trent to thrive.
Could cheap Arsenal midfielders be a value trap?
Arsenal have been hugely impressive since the season began, winning all four of their games, scoring 11 goals in the process and conceding just three.
They have also passed the eye test with flying colours and showed impressive character to come back from 1-0 down against a spirited Fulham in the late Saturday kick-off. The Gunners were utterly dominant and look like genuine top-four contenders.
And it is not just the obvious attacking assets delivering returns. Martin Odegaard (£6.6m), the second most famous member of this golden generation of Norwegian youngsters, has 31 FPL points after bagging three goals in his last two games. Captain and red-card machine Granit Xhaka (MID, £5m) has 22 points - just two fewer than Gabriel Martinelli (MID, £6.4m).
While nothing we have seen so far suggests Arsenal as a team aren’t the real deal, there is reason to be cautious about plumping for either Odegaard or Xhaka as a budget midfield option.
Odegaard is the third biggest overperformer in terms of goals and assists delivered versus his xG and xG Assisted (expected goals assisted), according to StatsBomb. Xhaka is top of that particular table.
There was more than a little luck about Odegaard’s deflected goal against Fulham and the majority of his nine efforts on goal have been from outside the penalty area. Xhaka, meanwhile, has only had four shots so far this season.
That is not to say that neither could prove to be value for money assets in FPL, of course - and it’s worth noting that City’s Haaland is also an xG and xG Assisted overperformer this season.
But certainly in the case of Xhaka, goals and assists aren’t usually his bag, so there’s every reason to expect a regression back towards his career mean will follow.
We need to talk about Son…
There is something not quite right with Spurs’ Son Heung-min (MID, £11.8m) at the moment.
It is not so much the South Korean’s form that’s worrying - he looked a menace on the break against Nottingham Forest on Sunday and found himself in good positions several times - but rather his relationship with manager Antonio Conte.
For the third week in a row Son was substituted before the 80-minute mark while a game was finely balanced. Son was visibly frustrated at that decision, a reaction which is unlikely to endear him to the Italian.
Although the immediate post-match focus may have been on his replacement Richarlison (FWD, £8.5m) getting clattered after mocking Forest by having a private game of keep-ups, the Brazilian once again looked sharp, set up Harry Kane’s (FWD, £11.4m) second goal and represents a real threat to Son’s minutes.
Dejan Kulusevski (MID, £8.2m), by contrast, had four shots in the game, laid on the first goal for Kane and had an xG of 0.3 versus Son’s 0.16, according to StatsBomb. So is a Son to Kulusevski swap a no-brainer?
Not quite. Comparing the underlying stats for the season gives a little more hope to Son backers.
Kulusevski has had 6 shots, scored one goal and has an xG of 0.48. Son has had 11 shots, scored 0 goals and has an xG of 1.13. In short - Kulusevski has overperformed his xG stats, while Son has underperformed.
On that basis alone, those who own Son might want to give him another week of grace - particularly as next-up Spurs travel to face a West Ham side that have lost two games at home so far this season.
Lift-off for Haaland…
I think we can safely say Pep Guardiola’s new toy hasn’t had too much trouble adjusting to football in the Premier League or his manager’s notorious demands.
Erling Haaland might not touch the ball that often - just 18 times in Man City’s 4-2 comeback win over a stubborn Crystal Palace side on Saturday - but his movement in the box is predatory.
If you haven’t watched Match of the Day this week, their analysis of Haaland’s performance - and in particular the way he is constantly looking for space and anticipating where the ball might go in the box - is recommended viewing.
Haaland now has six goals and one assist in his first four Premier League outings. His underlying stats are equally impressive, with his season total xG of 3.73 putting him comfortably ahead of Tottenham’s Kane in second (2.52) and Leeds United’s Rodrigo (MID, £6.3m) in third (2.28). If he keeps up that rate, even an FPL price tag approaching £12m will represent value-for-money.
A second goal in two games for Bernardo Silva (MID, £6.8m) will inevitably have FPL managers sniffing around the Portuguese midfielder. However, the performance of Ilkay Gundogan (MID, £7.6m) was arguably more eye-catching, with the German’s introduction turning the game decisively in favour of City.
Gundogan now has two goals and an assist in his last three games, continues to play an attacking role when on the pitch (six of his eight shots this season have been in the box) and has proven in previous seasons his attacking credentials. If his minutes become more assured after his excellent Gameweek 4 contribution, he could become a genuine alternative to Kevin De Bruyne (MID, £12.2m).
Quick notes
Bryan Mbeumo (FWD, £6m) - plenty of attackers delivering the goods in FPL, but don’t overlook the performances of Brentford’s ‘other’ striker. Mbeumo has had 11 shots this season, eight of which have been in the penalty area. Also a big xG and xG Assisted underperformer so far. Crystal Palace (A), Leeds (H) and Southampton (A) is an attractive run of fixtures too.
Anthony Gordon (MID, £5.5m) - Graham’s excellent article last week pointed to Gordon being in amongst the Premier League’s elite statistically - and the Evertonian showed exactly why with a beautifully taken goal in the 1-1 draw at Brentford on Saturday. You can read Graham’s article in full here. Tough run of fixtures until Gameweek 13, however.
Roberto Firmino (FWD, £8m) - three assists, a goal and 22 FPL points was a serious slap round the chops for those who had failed to flag the obvious opportunity the Brazilian had at home to Bournemouth on Saturday (including us). Newcastle is a much more difficult challenge, however, and then Darwin Nunez’s (FWD, £8.9m) return from suspension will almost certainly limit any long-term appeal.
Raheem Sterling (MID, £10m) - we loved the Chelsea forward at the start of the season and his two-goal salvo against Leicester City confirmed his place at the heart of their attack. Sterling sits behind only Haaland, Salah, Kane and Gabriel Jesus (FWD, £8.2m) in xG and xG Assisted, according to StatsBomb, and faces Southampton (A), West Ham (H) and Fulham (A) - three average defences - next.
The FGPE 100
The updated FPGE 100, our ranking of the most valuable players in FPL, has been updated after Gameweek 4. It’s included below as an image and PDF. Quick thoughts on some of what it shows:
-Dean Henderson is the new leader after another penalty save. If you think his position is odd, consider this: he is the fifth highest point scorer in the game, costs just £4.6 million, and has more points than Kevin De Bruyne and Gabriel Jesus.
-Roberto Firmino is the new top striker. That is what 22 points in one week can do. This shows the value of playing upfront for one of the best teams in the league. An interesting short-term option?
-Erling Haaland is 19th overall after his hat-trick against Crystal Palace and the third striker. Crucially, he is well ahead of other highly-priced players such as Mo Salah, Son, Kevin De Bruyne and Harry Kane. Salah is 84th in the FGPE, Kane 92nd and Son is 186th at present. They are hurting teams right now. If you have Haaland, you are happy…
Look ahead to Gameweek 5
Based on StatsBomb’s graphs on the best attacks and defences (below, and explained in the last edition here), here are some match-ups to target and avoid in Gameweek 5. Targets in bold, avoids in italics:
Man City attack and defence v Forest attack and defence
Arsenal attack and defence v Villa attack and defence
Brentford attack v Crystal Palace defence
Tottenham defence v West Ham attack
Leeds attack v Everton defence
Brighton defence v Fulham attack
Wolves defence v Bournemouth attack
Notes: No Liverpool (v Newcastle) or Tottenham attack (v West Ham) on this list. However, Newcastle could be missing a string of key players…. Arsenal’s attack is included but Aston Villa’s defence is 9th for xG conceded and 15th for goals conceded, suggesting it may not be as bad as appears…
Best and worst attacks
Best and worst defences
Under-performers to watch….
Last week we flagged a collection of players that were underperforming in FPL points relative to their underlying data and performances. Remarkably, six of the players mentioned went on to get goals or assists: Bruno Fernandes, Anthony Gordon, Joachim Andersen, Diogo Dalot, Trent Alexander-Arnold, and Bukayo Saka.
So, let’s look at the updated list after Gameweek 5. These are some underperformers to consider in FPL: Solly March, Joe Willock, Mo Salah, Bruno Fernandes (still), Christian Eriksen, Neco Williams (still), Tomas Soucek, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Mason Mount, Aaron Cresswell, Bryan Mbeumo, Son Heung-Min, Jordan Ayew, Pedro Neto, Alex Iwobi, Gabriel Martinelli, Jesse Lingard, and Lucas Digne.
Thanks for reading. We will be back later in the week for Gameweek 6…
Tom and Graham