🚀 The Risers and Fallers: Leicester up, Martinelli down

FPL Gameweek 23 preview

Hello everyone and welcome to the latest edition of Fantasy Gamweek. We have packed everything into one newsletter this week given the short turnaround from the end of the Manchester United v Leeds game on Wednesday to the deadline for Gameweek 23, which is 11am UK time on Saturday. This includes important notes on fixtures, our risers and fallers, a look at the latest Impect data and our FGPE rankings…

So starting with fixtures:

-This is a double gameweek for Arsenal (Brentford at home, Man City at home) and Man City (Aston Villa at home, Arsenal away)

-There are no doubles in Gameweek 24 but then in Gameweek 25 there are no matches for Man United, Newcastle, Brentford and Brighton and double gameweeks for Arsenal (Leicester away, Everton at home), Everton (Aston Villa at home, Arsenal away), Liverpool (Palace away, Wolves home) and Wolves (Fulham away, Liverpool away).

This all means that Arsenal have two double gameweeks over the next three weeks and play five matches over the same period that Manchester United, Newcastle, Brentford and Brighton have two.

Planning ahead is going to be vital here. If you don’t already have three Arsenal players - you should. Gameweek 25 also looks like an opportunity to play your free hit if you haven’t already…

The Risers and Fallers…

As a reminder, Risers and Fallers isn’t designed as a ‘buy’ or ‘sell’ recommendation – it is our assessment of those players or teams who we believe have received a bump in value after the last round of fixtures, and those we are less positive about.

As such, don’t immediately dump a ‘Faller’ from your FPL team – but perhaps have an eagle-eye on their performance in the coming weeks. Just because someone has delivered strong fantasy points all season, doesn’t mean they will continue to. 

Equally, forgotten players can and often do go on runs of form which can give your side a crucial differential edge.

As always, our focus is on identifying the players who offer value-for-money, supported by Impect’s brilliant data modelling and our own experience of FPL, with the end goal of helping you win your mini-league.

With that, let’s head to the King Power Stadium and a team who have been out of most people’s fantasy thinking for months…

The Risers…

Leicester City attackers

A combination of injuries to key players and poor form has thrust Brendan Rodgers’ Leicester City into the FPL wilderness in recent months. However, the return of James Maddison (MID, £8m) and a four-goal performance at Villa Park should be enough to reawaken your interest in what has previously been a potent attacking unit.

Leicester’s expected goals (xG) for that game was just over two, suggesting the four goals they scored was a significant overperformance, while their post-shot xG was a little higher at 2.3. Villa, meanwhile, delivered an xG of almost 3…but a post-shot xG of 1.13. 

In short, the difference between these sides was luck and the quality of finishing. 

England international Maddison is undoubtedly the key for Leicester and had been a standout performer based on the underlying data prior to getting injured. Maddison boasts the fourth highest Impect score among midfielders who have played at least six games this season, behind only Phil Foden (MID, £8m), Kevin De Bruyne (MID, £12.4m) and Martin Odegaard (MID, £7m). His offensive Impect score is 99% - the second highest among midfielders.

That underlying data has translated into fantasy returns, with Maddison registering eight goals, four assists and 85 FPL points. Given he has started just 13 games all season, that is seriously impressive, working out at around 6.5 points per 90 minutes. 

You’re probably focused on Arsenal and Manchester City assets this week, but after that the Leicester maestro should be right in your thoughts, even with tricky fixtures against Tottenham (J), Manchester United (A) and Arsenal (H) coming up.

If you’re looking for a lower-cost midfield alternative, Harvey Barnes (MID, £6.7m) has a strong FPL pedigree and should also benefit from Maddison’s return.

Maddison could also ignite Kelechi Iheanacho (FWD, £6.1m), a player who has spent most of the season on the sidelines but bagged a goal, two assists and 15 FPL points on Saturday. 

There is obvious risk to picking him up immediately with Patson Daka (FWD, £5.6m) and Jamie Vardy (FWD, £9.1m) also vying for minutes, but it is possible we are at the beginning of another hot Iheanacho streak similar to the one we saw in 2020/21.

Everton defenders

We said last week to steer clear of Everton players in FPL, in large part because they faced Arsenal at home and then Liverpool at Anfield. However, we also told you to keep a lookout for signs of greater coherence and defensive solidity.

Well, there were signs in their bucket loads as the Toffees recorded a vital 1-0 win against one of the league’s best attacks. More importantly from an FPL perspective, this was no fluke.

Arsenal recorded an xG of 0.84 and post-shot xG of just 0.11. That suggests Everton caught Arsenal on an off day in front of goal, but also that even on a good day they could still have kept a clean sheet.

If Everton’s defence looks good again this week, then next up is a crucial home fixture against Leeds followed by a double Gameweek against Aston Villa (H) and Arsenal (A). 

Given how strong Dyche made a much less talented Burnley backline look over multiple seasons, there is every chance Everton’s defensive assets will become fantasy relevant over the coming weeks. 

Check out this video of Dyche explaining how he coaches defending and you can understand how he has influenced Everton’s approach so quickly

Michael @greenallefc

Listen to Sean Dyche, and then watch the clip from earlier today. Already, Everton mastering the protection of "the V" https://t.co/rndoNLhstj

Diego Dalot (DEF, £4.7m)

The loss of Casemiro (MID, 4.9m) to suspension predictably weakened Man United’s defensive solidity, with two goals conceded in a barnstorming Wednesday night showdown with Leeds United.

However, the surprise omission of Aaron Wan-Bissaka (DEF, £4.3m) due to illness thrust buccaneering full-back Dalot back into the line-up, and he responded with an assist for Marcus Rashford’s goal.

Dalot’s Impect and offensive Impect scores both stand at 79% for the season, above average, and crucially he is playing in a defence that now looks more than capable of keeping clean sheets – particularly when Casemiro is available.

Assuming he keeps his starting berth, Dalot shout be in your FPL thoughts, particularly given his relatively low price tag. One word of caution though – United are scheduled to have no fixture in Gameweek 25.

Wilfried Gnonto (FWD, £5m)

Gnonto is something of an enigma in FPL – a player who has jumped off the screen in flashes but hasn’t quite hit the mark when you look at the underlying data. 

Take the Italian 19-year-old’s goalscoring performance in the draw at Old Trafford on Wednesday. Despite delivering for FPL managers who backed him, when that first-minute goal is taken out of the equation, his overall Impect performance was better than just 2% of players in his position.

Similarly, in an eye-catching outing against Aston Villa recently – during which he registered an assist – Impect’s data suggests he was better than just 13% of players in his position.

Over the season so far, Gnonto’s overall Impect (34%) and offensive Impect (39%) are below average. His post-shot xG when taking into account minutes played is better, however, outperforming 69% of attacking midfielders. That is impressive when you consider the number of high-class players in that position and Gnonto’s relative inexperience. 

Perhaps more importantly, the injury to Rodrigo (MID, £6.4m) should see him play an increasingly prominent role in what remains a decent Leeds attacking unit. 

Next up are Man United again (H), then Everton (A) and bottom-of-the-league Southampton (H), providing ample opportunity for Gnonto to further burgeon his growing reputation. 

The Fallers…

Manchester City players (even Erling Haaland)

You almost certainly have, or are planning to have, three City players and three Arsenal players in your FPL team this Gameweek, given both sides have a double fixture. That is absolutely the right decision. 

One of those City players will be Erling Haaland (FWD, £12.2m), but the difficulty in choosing two more players who will likely start against Aston Villa (H) and Arsenal (A) tells you all you need to know about the unrest at the Etihad right now.

Kevin De Bruyne (MID, £12.4m), one of the best Premier League players in history, has gone off the boil, to the point where he has been dropped in two of the last three games. Even Haaland barely registered a threat to goal in the insipid 1-0 defeat at White Hart Lane against Tottenham Hotspur.

There are reasons to think this could turn around, of course. De Bruyne is too good to stay in this slump, and City remain firmly in touch with league leaders Arsenal. Next up are an Aston Villa side who just conceded four goals at home against Leicester – potentially the perfect tonic for City’s big hitters.

And there are players, such as Riyad Mahrez (MID, £7.7m), who have started regularly during the unrest and remain consistent performers both in FPL and on the underlying data.

Indeed, if you’re playing catch-up, there’s even an argument for going against the grain and dropping your triple captain on Haaland or De Bruyne this week, in the hope you benefit from a backlash to the prevailing narrative.

But Pep Guardiola’s increasingly erratic behaviour and City’s worryingly disjointed performances mean their premium players have to be given a downgrade.

Liverpool players

Every week we expect Liverpool to find a way through this crisis, and every week it just seems to get worse. The Reds are now 10^th in the league, having conceded 28 goals – more than twice as many as Newcastle. 

They have found the net 34 times, putting them joint 7^th in this category – but don’t forget that includes a 9-0 against Bournemouth in Gameweek 4. Strip that result out and their goal difference across the remaining 19 fixtures is -3. 

In short: Liverpool are exactly where they deserve to be in the league and need to be treated more like a mid-table side in FPL than one battling for the title, which is how their assets are priced.

In their 3-0 loss at Wolverhampton Wanderers on Saturday they were, once again, outgunned in every facet of the game by a supposedly inferior side. Perhaps most worryingly, their expensively assembled attack registered an xG of 1.33 and a post-shot xG of just 0.74. That is abysmal.

A Merseyside derby against an Everton team who might just have found themselves is probably the last thing Jurgen Klopp needs right now. And even with a double fixture on the horizon in Gameweek 25 against Crystal Palace (A) and Wolves again (H), it will take a significant upturn in performance to see FPL managers loading up on Liverpool players between now and then.

Gabriel Martinelli (MID, £6.6m)

We had an eye on the Brazil winger’s underwhelming recent performances in the games before the weekend, and Mikel Arteta’s decision to sub him after 58 minutes of a quiet performance against Everton only added to our concerns.

If you’ve had Martinelli in your side since the start of the season, you’ve made a good call – he was (and remains) underpriced and has 103 points this season, an excellent return on your investment.

However, he has also failed to deliver an attacking return in four Gameweeks, a stretch during which his underlying data has been appalling. In fact, in three of those fixtures, his Impect score was below 20% - ranked ‘below average’ for players in his position group.

This could be a short-term dip in form. It could reflect exhaustion for a 21-year-old who has played almost every minute of a high-intensity campaign. But it is something you now need to consider.

In all likelihood you will be keeping Martinelli in your team for this week’s double fixture. But with Leandro Trossard (MID, £6.7m) providing competition for places, he now needs to demonstrate he is worth a place in your FPL starting XI.

Player rankings

Now that we have looked at the risers and fallers, let’s have a quick look at the leaders in a couple of key Impect metrics Offensive Impect and post-shot xG. After looking at what has happened since the Premier League restarted on December 26 in previous editions, let’s look across the season as a whole this week. Firstly, this is Offensive Impect, which looks at the overall attacking effectiveness of a player for their team, measured as a percentage relative to other players. Minimum of two matches played.

Erling Haaland - 100
Evan Ferguson - 100
Harry Kane - 99
Roberto Firmino - 99
Anthony Martial - 99
Phil Foden - 99
James Maddison - 98
Kevin De Bruyne - 98
Alexander Isak - 98
Ivan Toney - 98

And these are the leaders for post-shot xG, which shows expected goals after a shot has been taken, therefore looks at the quality of a shot as well as the quality of the chance…

Erling Haaland - 20.1
Harry Kane - 16.6
Ivan Toney - 11.7
Aleksandar Mitrovic - 10.3
Mo Salah - 9.8
Marcus Rashford - 9.8
Gabriel Jesus - 9.1
Darwin Nunez - 8.7
Roberto Firmino - 8.1
Callum Wilson - 7.3

Finally, lets look at our FGPE index, which ranks players by value and should be a vital part of your decision on whether to pick a player…

Thanks for reading. Best of luck for Gameweek 23

Tom and Graham