The Risers and Fallers...
What we learned from FPL Gameweek 21
Welcome to the new and (hopefully) improved version of our weekly ‘What we learned’ column. The aim remains the same – to assess the fixtures that have just gone and apply the lessons to our future Fantasy Premier League selection strategy.
As always, Impect’s brilliant data will be at the heart of our analysis, helping us dissect the high-scoring players and teams that are likely to sustain that scoring, and those who might just be a flash in the pan.
The key change is in the format, which now combines data, our own football knowledge and fantasy football experience - and what we have seen on the pitch - to pick players and teams we think should be at the forefront of your thinking in FPL…and those that you should probably swerve.
As always with Fantasy Gameweek, value will be at the heart of our thinking – a key part of which remains the extent to which a player can help you differentiate from your rivals.
With that, here are five players that should be on your radar ahead of Gameweek 22…
The risers…
Marcus Rashford (MID, £7.2m)
Manchester United are impossible to ignore under Erik ten Hag, and nobody has exemplified the return to prominence of the former Premier League champions more than Rashford.
The midfielder scored yet again in United’s dramatic 3-2 defeat at the Emirates against Arsenal in Gameweek 21, taking his tally to five goals, one assist and 46 FPL points in the last six fixtures. A return of almost 8 points per Gameweek is seriously impressive, which explains why around half of FPL teams have the England man in their squad.
If you haven’t jumped on the bandwagon yet, make sure you do this week as United have a double Gameweek, with both fixtures at home, against two fairly average defences – Crystal Palace (H) and Leeds United (H).
Given the form Rashford has demonstrated in recent weeks, there is an argument for seizing the moment and dropping your triple captain chip on him – although Manchester City’s Erling Haaland (FWD, £12.2m), who has his own double Gameweek on the horizon, might have something to say about that.
Either way, all the FPL arrows – talent, opportunity, form and the underlying stats – are pointing to both Rashford and United’s other key players delivering big points hauls this week.
Bruno Fernandes (MID, £9.9m)
Which brings us to Bruno Fernandes, one of our post-World Cup picks who has delivered stellar returns for those who recognised his rare differential potential. Remember, this is a player with an 18-goal, 14-assist Premier League season on his résumé who currently costs less than £10 million in FPL – and yet is still in fewer than 10% of line-ups.
The Portuguese attacking midfielder has looked more like his old self since Cristiano Ronaldo left and has attacking returns in each of the last five fixtures (two goals and three assists), bagging 36 points at 7.2 points per game during that spell.
Over the same period, Kevin de Bruyne (MID, £12.5m) – currently priced at £12.5 million and in over a third of FPL line-ups - has delivered just 15 points.
Fernandes’ underlying data in Gameweeks 18-21 is particularly eye-catching. His overall Impect score is 100% for that period, making him the best statistical midfielder in the league, while his offensive Impect is 92% (3rd among midfielders). In short: the FPL output is supported by the data.
Get Fernandes in your team if you can.
Kaoru Mitoma (MID, £5.1m)
This isn’t the first time we’ve highlighted the performances of the Japanese international, and it probably won’t be the last. Mitoma was sensational for the Seagulls before the World Cup break and has hit the ground running since.
He now has three goals and an assist in the last four Gameweeks, notching 31 points in the process at a rate of 7.75 points per game. Mitoma also bagged a stylish winner against Liverpool in the FA Cup in the weekend just gone.
His underlying data provides ample evidence that this is a trend rather than a fluke. Mitoma’s offensive Impect score is an impressive 95% for the season (meaning he is more effective than 95% of midfielders), putting him 5th in the league in that position group (among players who have played at least five games). In Gameweeks 18-21, he is top of the offensive Impect pile for midfielders.
A post-shot expected goals (xG) figure of 3.4 for the season also suggests his actual output (4 goals) isn’t far off what you’d expect based on the opportunities he’s had.
There might be no double Gameweek in the offing for Brighton, but home fixtures against Bournemouth and Fulham, with a trip to Selhurst Park to face a hot-and-cold Crystal Palace side, holds obvious appeal. Mitoma is also a genuine differential, currently featuring in just 6.5% of FPL sides.
Eddie Nketiah (FWD, £6.7m)
Eddie! Eddie! Eddie!
Another player who has featured in ‘What we learned’ previously, you’d think selecting Eddie Nketiah, the central striker in the second most potent attack in the league, would be a bit of a no-brainer in FPL.
Apparently not – just 6.5% of teams have the Arsenal man in their team at the moment. Those who picked him in Gameweek 21 were handsomely rewarded with two goals and 13 FPL points.
Over the last five weeks, Nketiah has delivered 30 fantasy points at exactly 6 points per game. Harry Kane (FWD, £11.7m), who costs £5 million extra, has scored just one point more over the same period.
Nketiah also ranks well based on the underlying data. An offensive Impect score of 89% this season is more than useful. For context, Aleksandar Mitrovic (FWD, £7m) has a score of 87%, and Gabriel Jesus (FWD, £7.9m), the player Nketiah is deputising for, sits on 81%. A post-shot xG of 5.2 also suggests his four goals this season could easily be improved upon in the coming weeks.
With many likely prioritising loading up on players with a double Gameweek, Nketiah could offer serious differential value for those who already have their fill of Manchester United and Leeds United players.
His case is further bolstered by news Jesus isn’t expected back until the end of the month, and before that Arsenal are scheduled to face Everton (A), Brentford (H), Man City (H) and Aston Villa (A). Based on what we have seen, we expect to see Nketiah’s prolific form continue over that stretch of fixtures.
Rodrigo (MID, £6.4m)
While all eyes are understandably on Man United’s juicy duo of fixtures in Gameweek 22, don’t forget that Leeds United have their own double to tackle.
An away fixture against a vastly improved Nottingham Forest side followed by a trip to Old Trafford aren’t exactly enticing, but there are reasons to think Leeds’ reasonably priced attacking assets could be worth a punt.
Remember, even when the fixtures don’t look great, you get two points just for playing 60 minutes, and the extra match a player has to deliver FPL returns is usually worth buying into.
We don’t necessarily expect Leeds to win both their fixtures, but it would be a surprise if they didn’t score.
Forest’s defence has improved of late but they still rank second worst in terms of goals conceded, with only Bournemouth – who shipped nine at Liverpool – behind them. Forest are also missing goalkeeper Dean Henderson (GK, £4.7m), without whom they would have conceded many more in the early going of the season.
United, while undoubtedly improved at the back, are fresh from shipping three goals at the Emirates and don’t have a clean sheet in their last three fixtures (although they came very close against Crystal Palace in Gameweek 20).
Failing to score at home against Bournemouth in Gameweek 21 doesn’t offer much hope of big returns for Leeds’ attackers, but they were hugely unlucky to only score one the week before in an impressive display at Villa Park and netted twice at Elland Road against West Ham a week earlier. A 3-1 win in the FA Cup, albeit against Accrington Stanley, should also bolster confidence.
Rodrigo, who was rested for that outing, remains the standout option. His offensive Impect score of 86% puts him on the fringes of the league’s top 10 strikers – but remember the Spaniard is classified as a midfielder in FPL.
A post-shot xG of 5.6 suggests he may come down to earth given he has hit the back of the net 10 times this season, but that is counteracted by the double Gameweek.
Patrick Bamford (FWD, £7.2m), who bagged a couple of assists in the cup and scored in the 2-1 reversal against Aston Villa, and the talented Wilfried Gnonto (£5m) are also worth considering.
Which brings us to three teams we are steering clear of for the time being…
The fallers…
Manchester City players not called Erling Haaland and Ederson
Something very odd is happening at Manchester City. Joao Cancelo (DEF, £7.1m), a darling of FPL managers over the last two seasons and one of the few guaranteed starters at the Etihad, has just been allowed to leave on loan to Bayern Munich.
Pep Guardiola has been openly criticising the desire, commitment and, in the case of Kalvin Phillips (MID, £4.8m), weight of his players since the World Cup. Phil Foden, a player often rotated but often turned to against City’s most challenging opponents, is struggling to make the matchday squad.
Even Kevin de Bruyne, one of the most consistent performers in FPL history who is now delivering crosses to arguably the best penalty area finisher in world football, has disappointed recently.
The lack of stability means it is hard to trust any of City’s players right now – hardly ideal with a double fixture in Gameweek 23.
Cancelo’s departure does open up a defensive position – possibly for the ultra-cheap Rico Lewis (DEF, £3.9m) – while the likes of Riyad Mahrez (MID, £7.7m) and Jack Grealish (MID, £6.8m) have also started to deliver the goods. Nathan Ake (DEF, £5m) has also started five of the last six Premier League fixtures and drew praise from Guardiola after his goalscoring performance in the FA Cup against Arsenal.
But the general instability at the Etihad means most of their assets, bar Haaland and Ederson (GK, £5.4m), have to be given a downgrade - for now at least.
Everton’s new manager bounce
New manager, new hope? Not a bit of it at Goodison Park. I remain a legacy member of an Everton Whatsapp group after going to a few games last season and let me tell you – the atmosphere is toxic.
Former Burnley manager Sean Dyche should in time bring stability to this struggling outfit. They certainly have the personnel to improve their clean sheet record, and Dyche-ball in his Turf Moor years was built on a mean defensive record, particularly at home.
At some point, getting a tune out of this stuttering attack – and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (FWD, £7.9m) in particular – will also be crucial if the Toffees are to survive.
But in the meantime, any hopes of a new manager bounce have been dampened by a baron transfer window. Fixtures against Arsenal (H) followed by the Merseyside derby against Liverpool (A) aren’t exactly appealing either.
A watching brief for now then - but keep an eye out for signs Everton look more secure at the back ahead of home fixtures against Leeds and Aston Villa in Gameweeks 24 and 25.
Chelsea’s new signings bounce
Graham Potter remains at Chelsea but the group of players he manages has changed dramatically after Todd Boehly opened his chequebook to the tune of almost £300 million.
Some of those additions, most notably Argentinian midfielder Enzo Fernandez (price and position TBC) and talented Ukrainian winger Mykhaylo Mudryk (MID, £7m), should improve the West London side over the medium to long-term.
But in the here-and-now, Potter is left with the task of embedding multiple new signings into a side that has spent much of this season looking disjointed.
Even with decent-looking fixtures coming up against Fulham (H), West Ham (A) and Southampton (H), we won’t be loading up on Chelsea players until the dust settles a bit.
Thanks for reading
Tom