🏆 The final stretch
Preview of a big double gameweek
Hello everyone and welcome to Fantasy Gameweek. There are only five gameweeks left in Fantasy Premier League this season and this is a big one. There are two matches for Brighton, Fulham, Liverpool, Man City, Man United and West Ham. That means a double gameweek for the top-scoring player in FPL - Erling Haaland (FWD, £12.3m) - and his mate Kevin De Bruyne (MID, £12.1m).
The deadline for transfers and changes is 11am UK time on Saturday. These are your fixtures:
All the fixtures for the Premier League season are now set so we can see the teams that will have double gameweeks between now and the end of the season. They are:
Gameweek 34, this week: Brighton, Fulham, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, West Ham
Gameweek 35: None
Gameweek 36: Brighton and Newcastle
Gameweek 37: Brighton, Chelsea, Man City, Man Utd
Gameweek 38: None
Brighton play eight times over the final five gameweeks, while Man City and Man United play seven times. Brighton’s players are well-placed to deliver lots of FPL points - but was that 3-1 defeat against Forest a sign that they are burning out after their FA Cup semi-final loss to Man United?
In terms of the latest injury news, Jurgen Klopp said in his Friday press conference that the in-form Diogo Jota (FWD, £8.9) has picked-up a knock…
Jota is one of the most transferred-in players ahead of Gameweek 34, as you can see below…
Let’s get into the risers and fallers with Tom…
The Risers
Marcus Rashford (MID, £7.1m)
Fantasy Gameweek’s top pre-season tip had slightly fallen off the fantasy radar in recent weeks after getting injured. Not any more. England winger Rashford was spearheading Manchester United’s attack again on Thursday evening - bagging a goal, assist and 12 FPL points in a 2-2 draw against troubled Tottenham Hotspur.
United are one of a handful of teams with two double gameweeks between now and the end of the campaign, making them a key transfer target.
Rashford, the sixth-highest scorer in FPL and priced at just £7.1m, is the obvious choice based on output and value. Jadon Sancho (MID, £7.1m) appears to have won the trust of Erik ten Hag and offers an alternative for those looking to differentiate.
Kevin De Bruyne (MID, £12.1m)
How could we ever doubt you, Kevin? The Belgian wizard was at his majestic best on Wednesday night, pulling the strings and bursting beyond Haaland at every opportunity as City ran out 4-1 winners against Arsenal. De Bruyne ended up with two goals, an assist and a monster 19-point haul in FPL.
City also have two double gameweeks left and they look to be on an unstoppable march towards the title.
There is a minor question mark over minutes for KDB, with the midfielder reportedly suffering a minor hamstring niggle. However, if he’s fit, we’d expect him to start.
Looking to differentiate? Riyad Mahrez (MID, £7.3m) proved his ability to deliver from minimal minutes when he scored a hat-trick in the FA Cup semi-final against Sheffield United. But only go for the winger if you’re chasing in your mini-league.
Aston Villa defenders
Another week, another win, another clean sheet for Aston Villa. They have no double gameweeks in the remaining weeks so aren’t an obvious target for FPL transfers, but if you’ve bought into Tyrone Mings (DEF, £4.7m) and co, you’re probably sticking with them for the rest of the campaign.
The Fallers
Brighton
Fantasy Gameweek readers know we love Roberto De Zerbi’s progressive side, but a demoralising semi-final defeat in the FA Cup followed by a 3-1 reversal away at relegation-threatened Nottingham Forest means they have to be given a downgrade, even ahead of a double home fixture against Wolves and then Man United.
Crystal Palace
If you bought into the Roy Hodgson bounce, now might be the time to sell out. Having all-but-secured survival, Palace have been uninspired in back-to-back fixtures against Everton (A) and Wolves (A), failing to score in both.
Palace’s fixtures aren’t bad on paper but there aren’t enough of them (no double gameweeks left) and they appear to be, as they say, on the beach.
Chelsea
Abandon hope all ye who enter here. Five games, four defeats, one goal scored and a rough-looking run of fixtures to boot. They have one double gameweek left this season – but it involves a double trip to Manchester to face City and then United. Avoid temptation and look elsewhere for your FPL differentials.
Rankings
It’s time to look at the latest key performance indicators from Impect, our data partner, and how Premier League players rank after the last round of matches. These rankings are based on data from December 26, the first gameweek after the World Cup, and each player must have played at least 20 per cent of the minutes available since then to be included.
Offensive Impect - overall attacking effectiveness
Erling Haaland - 100
Ollie Watkins - 99.5
Marcus Rashford - 99.1
Harry Kane - 98.6
Alexander Isak - 98.1
Callum Wilson - 97.7
Mo Salah - 97.2
Kelechi Iheanancho - 96.7
Kevin De Bruyne - 96.2
Solly March - 95.8
Bypassed defenders - how many opposition defenders a player takes out of the game with their play, including passing and dribbling
Trent Alexander-Arnold - 13
Kevin De Bruyne - 12
Bruno Fernandes - 11
Youri Tielemans - 10
Alexis Mac Allister - 8
Solly March - 8
Alex Iwobi - 8
Casemiro - 8
Pascal Gross - 8
Mateo Kovacic - 8
Kieran Trippier - 8
Post-shot xG - quality of chances and quality of shot
Ollie Watkins - 11.51
Harry Kane - 10.08
Erling Haaland - 7.78
Marcus Rashford - 7.69
Mo Salah - 7.43
Alexander Isak - 7.37
Ivan Toney - 7.27
Kaoru Mitoma - 5.97
Heung-Min Son - 5.78
Alexis Mac Allister - 5.73
Offensive Impect, defenders only
Trent Alexander-Arnold - 100
Lewis Dunk - 98.9
Kieran Trippier - 97.8
Ben White - 96.7
Pedro Porro - 95.7
Luke Shaw - 94.6
Ben Chilwell - 93.5
Joel Veltman - 92.4
Marcos Senesi - 91.3
Pervis Estupinan - 90.2
With such a key gameweek ahead we thought it would be useful in this edition to also look at how Premier League teams as a whole are faring on some of Impect’s key metrics. The same parameters apply here as they do for the players - this data covers the period since the Premier League returned after the World Cup on December 26.
Packing expected threat - a measure of a team’s attacking effectiveness, including shots but also attacks that do not end in an attempt on goal
Man City - 2.93
Arsenal - 2.81
Brighton - 2.81
Liverpool - 2.68
Man United - 2.52
Newcastle - 2.38
Chelsea - 2.35
Tottenham - 2.03
Bournemouth - 1.97
Aston Villa - 1.95
Worst: Forest - 1.47, Southampton - 1.52, Crystal Palace - 1.62, Everton - 1.62
Shot-based xG
Man City - 2.21
Brighton - 2.06
Arsenal - 1.93
Liverpool - 1.84
Man United - 1.77
Newcastle - 1.65
Chelsea - 1.47
Aston Villa - 1.44
Brentford - 1.39
West Ham - 1.36
Worst: Everton - 0.96, Wolves, 0.97, Crystal Palace - 0.97
Shot-based xG for opponent - a measure of the chances that the defence is conceding
Man City - 0.74
Brighton - 1.05
Newcastle - 1.06
Chelsea - 1.11
Arsenal - 1.11
Brentford - 1.28
Liverpool - 1.29
West Ham - 1.3
Man United - 1.36
Wolves - 1.39
Worst: Bournemouth - 1.8, Forest - 1.73, Leeds - 1.7, Leicester - 1.7
FGPE index
Finally, let’s look at our updated FGPE index. This is how Premier League players rank by value and upside in FPL. Our FGPE algorithm calculates a score for each player based on their points-per-million and performance relative to others in their position every week.
Jason Steele (GK, £3.9m) continues to lead the way for Brighton after a penalty save helped him to 10 points against Nottingham Forest. His sample-size is smaller than other players, however, given he has only started seven games.
The FPGE should be used in conjunction with other tools to help you make your decisions. It is a useful way to compare the performances of players at different prices and to work out which pairings of players would be stronger. We rarely make transfers in isolation in FPL as we try to keep within our budget. For example, is Mo Salah (MID, £13m) and Alexander Isak (FWD, £6.8m) a better pairing than Erling Haaland (FWD, £12.3) and Cody Gakpo (MID, £7.7m)? No according to the FGPE. Salah and Isak scores 0.66, Haaland and Gakpo is 0.73.
That’s it for this week. Thanks for reading. Best of luck in Gameweek 34. Please share Fantasy Gameweek with those you think will find it useful and interesting
Best
Graham and Tom