Team-by-team previews: Where is the FPL value in last season's top four?

Having run the rule over the three promoted clubs in our first team-by-team preview, we now turn our attention to last season’s top four sides. The talent pool here is inevitably deeper, but remember all that glitters isn’t always gold in Fantasy Premier League. 

Star players are more open to rotation at big clubs with big budgets, something you need to factor into your team selection. It’s no good complaining about being “Pepped” mid-season when you knew full-well the embarrassment of riches the Manchester City manager had at his disposal before you picked your team.

Equally, someone operating in a higher quality side might need fewer minutes to justify their price tag. As always, it’s about understanding both the upside and the potential downside, managing both, and adjusting if and when circumstances change.

With that, let’s head North to the reigning Premier League champions…

Manchester City

Few players have settled in the Premier League quite as easily as City striker Erling Haaland (FWD, £14m), who delivered an outrageous 36 goals and nine assists on his way to 272 fantasy points in his debut season. His price has rocketed to £14m ahead of the 2023/24 campaign, but even that hasn’t put FPL managers off, with approaching 90% of teams building their strategy around the Norwegian goal machine. 

That is partly a reflection of how good he is and partly a reflection of the value for money available elsewhere, particularly among defenders and midfielders. The potential departure of Harry Kane (FWD, £12.5m) to Bayern Munich also significantly shrinks the elite striker options available. 

This also makes Julian Alvarez (FWD, £6.5m) an interesting option as part of a City attacking double-up. The Argentinian is priced as a rotation player at best but started for the champions in the Community Shield on Sunday. He bagged nine goals and three assists last season in less than 1,500 minutes of football. If he can get closer to the 2,000-minute mark, you’d expect him to be pushing past 15 goals.

The departure of Riyad Mahrez potentially reduces the rotation risk for Phil Foden (MID, £7.5m), a player whose obvious talent is backed up by excellent underlying data performance. The main concern is that manager Pep Guardiola doesn’t seem to fully trust the England international, handing him 1,832 Premier League minutes last season compared to 2,125 in the previous campaign. This drop in minutes didn’t affect his output, however, as he racked up eleven goals, nine assists and 142 FPL points – five more points than in the prior campaign. If he can combine last season’s efficiency with increased pitch time, his £7.5m price will be an absolute steal.

However, the emergence of Cole Palmer (MID, £5m) and the return to fitness of Kevin De Bruyne (MID, £10.5m) mean Foden’s minutes remain threatened. Jack Grealish (MID, £7.5m) appears a more reliable selection and is well-placed to kick on from a five-goal, ten-assist campaign in 2022/23.

At the back, it’s worth monitoring the role John Stones (DEF, £5.5m) occupies in the opening weeks. If he’s taking up advanced positions – as we saw in the second half of last season – he may merit the extra investment. However, the signing of holding midfielder Mateo Kovacic (MID, £5m), may point to the return of a more conventional formation.

The sheer volume of options open to Guardiola is a potential issue here too. Ruben Dias (DEF, £5.5m), Manuel Akanji (DEF, £5m), Nathan Ake (DEF, £5m), Kyle Walker (DEF, £5m), Aymeric Laporte (DEF, £5m) and new signing Josko Gvardiol (DEF, £5m) will all be vying for selection in defence – and seven into four simply doesn’t go. If you opt for any of these players, it makes sense to have a viable replacement on your bench for any weeks they are not selected. Alternatively, Ederson (GK, £5.5m) is one of only three near-certain starters at City (along with Haaland and Rodri (MID, £5.5m)) – although he was outscored by nine goalkeepers last season, in part because he doesn’t rack up the saves or bonus points of his rivals. 

Arsenal

The Gunners have invested like a team wanting to challenge for the title, with the signing of centre midfielder Declan Rice (MID, £5.5m) a particularly eye-catching statement of intent. Yet players like Bukayo Saka (MID, £8.5m), Martin Odegaard (MID, £8.5m) and Gabriel Martinelli (MID, £8m) remain relatively reasonably priced despite stellar campaigns in 2022/23. They are also less vulnerable to rotation than their City counterparts – especially Saka and Odegaard.

Both passed the eye test with flying colours last season, are central figures in their team’s attack and were among the top-performing midfielders during the last campaign, according to Impect’s data. Rice is a clear upgrade in defensive midfield and Odegaard, Saka and Martinelli all stand to benefit from his acquisition. There is even an argument for doubling up on Arsenal midfielders, particularly given their soft fixture list in the early going of the season.

The signing of Kai Havertz (MID, £7.5m) from Chelsea is intriguing, as is his £7.5m FPL price tag. With Gabriel Jesus (FWD, £8m) recovering from a minor knee operation, the German international is likely to kick-off the season as centre-forward for the second-best attack in the league. If he impresses, there is every chance Havertz, who vastly underperformed his expected goals (xG) last season, will benefit from a decent run in the side. There is, however, a reasonable question over how much you can keep buying into the potential of a player who has yet to score more than eight goals in a Premier League campaign.

Arsenal’s defence has also been strengthened through the addition of Jurrien Timber (DEF, £5m), not to mention the return from injury of William Saliba (DEF, £5m) at centre back. The acquisition of Rice will also benefit Mikel Arteta’s defence as much as his attack. It’s worth monitoring how Timber, who started the Community Shield at left back, is utilised by manager Arteta in the opening games. If he nails down that left-back spot, Oleksandr Zinchenko’s (DEF, £5m) value has to take a hit. 

Gabriel (DEF, £5m) offered the greatest goal threat of Arsenal’s centre-halves last season and has hit the back of the net eight times over the last two campaigns. Ben White (DEF, £5.5m) was more attacking as a right-back toward the back end of last season but his price tag feels a little rich given the two goals and five assists he registered were his first in three seasons.

Manchester United

Manchester United will also be looking to build on their third-placed finish last season and, like Arsenal, have invested heavily in their squad over the summer, with splashy signings including goalkeeper Andre Onana (GK, £5m), midfielder Mason Mount (MID, £7m) and, most recently, hulking Danish centre forward Rasmus Hojland (FWD, £7m). 

Despite this – and manager Erik Ten Hag having another pre-season under his belt – United’s best performers haven’t seen massive price rises. Marcus Rashford (MID, £9m), on the back of his second career 17-goal season, is priced at £9m, the same as Tottenham Hotspur’s Son Heung Min (MID, £9m) and £1.5m cheaper than City’s De Bruyne – both of whom he comfortably outscored in FPL last season.

Bruno Fernandes (MID, £8.5m), United’s talisman, is available at £8.5m, a price that suggests he is expected to come closer to last season’s points total of 176 than his career best of 244 in 2020/21. With a strengthened cast around him, we’re expecting Bruno to deliver on the upside – particularly as he’ll be on penalty duty (a valuable albeit highly uncertain potential source of FPL points).

Hojland has drawn comparisons with Haaland in some quarters, although that’s presumably entirely because he’s blonde, Scandinavian and has a name beginning with ‘H’, because their goalscoring records are very different. Nine goals in 32 appearances for Atalanta last season certainly doesn’t jump off the page - although six in six for Denmark does. One to watch in the early going.

The addition of Onana is as much about his ability on the ball as his goalkeeping, with Ten Hag clearly keen to pass from the back where possible. In defence, FPL managers will need to see who wins the battle at right-back between Aaron Wan-Bissaka (DEF, £4.5m) and Diego Dalot (DEF, £5m), with the latter offering a bit more going forward to justify the extra £0.5m investment. On the opposite flank, there’s every reason to think Luke Shaw (DEF, £5.5m) – a key part of this attack and, crucially, set-piece taker - will justify his £5.5m price tag.

Newcastle United

Eddie Howe continues to recruit shrewdly, yet the FPL price-setters appear sceptical about Newcastle’s chances of delivering a top-four finish again this season.

Alexander Isak (FWD, £7.5m) has been a top Impect data performer since his move to Tyneside and is a candidate for a breakout season. The one lingering question is whether Howe will use him alongside Callum Wilson (FWD, £8m) or as part of a rotation. Given Newcastle’s challenging opening fixtures this campaign, it might be worth keeping a watching brief on both for now.

In the attacking midfield positions Anthony Gordon (MID, £5.5m), Miguel Almiron (MID, £6.5m) and Harvey Barnes (MID, £6.5m) are the most likely to nail down a starting spot. Barnes, who was a consistent performer for Leicester City even in their relegation year, has the pedigree to step up from promising youngster to Premier League star this campaign once he settles into his new environment. 

Keep an eye on Elliot Anderson (MID, £4.5m) in the early going as well. He was a pre-season star and received glowing reviews from Howe as a result. If he becomes a first-team regular, his ultra-low price tag will free up valuable cash to invest elsewhere in your team.

Bruno Guimaraes (MID, £6m) remains the key to keeping this team ticking over – as long as he is playing, the value of those around him increases, and vice versa. The addition of Sandro Tonali (MID, £5.5m) from AC Milan adds further ballast to that midfield, although both are more likely to enable others than be FPL points machines themselves.

The acquisition of Tonali also strengthens the case for Newcastle’s defence, in particular Kieran Trippier (DEF, £6.5m) – who delivered nine assists last season – and cheaper alternatives Sven Botman (DEF, £4.5m) and Dan Burn (DEF, £4.5m). All three look to be sure-fire starters in a team that has, on paper, improved significantly since last season.

Thanks for reading, as always. The final team-by-team preview will land in your inbox on Thursday, rounding up the remaining 13 Premier League teams.

Cheers

Tom