Risers and Fallers: Haaland dethroned as FPL top scorer

A Risers and Fallers mea culpa, two fantasy legends delivering points and a new top scorer in FPL...

Hello and welcome to Risers and Fallers, your weekly guide to the players we are in on and those we like less in FPL. Those opinions are formed based on data from our brilliant partner, Impect, our knowledge of football and over two decades of combined experience playing fantasy football.

Winning fantasy managers are usually able to combine patience with ruthlessness where required. Tinker too much with your team and you end up lost - but staying blindly loyal to certain players or teams when the facts change can cost you dear.

Nobody should have an assumed place in your starting line-up. You need to constantly reflect on the opportunity each of your FPL assets has, their form and the extent to which circumstances might increase or decrease their value.

Key to that is sticking to facts rather than narratives. And the facts show there is a new top points scorer in FPL whose name isn’t Erling Haaland…

Risers

Ollie Watkins (FWD, £8m)

Watkins has been threatening to break out for most of this season, but a combination of inefficient finishing, bad luck and difficult fixtures have limited his output in FPL. Fantasy managers who kept the faith were rewarded in spades on Saturday as the Villa and England hitman helped himself to three goals, two assists and 23 points in a 6-1 demolition job against Brighton.

It’s worth noting while Watkins had struggled for goals before Gameweek 7, he had delivered an assist in four of the opening five fixtures. His underlying Impect data was also impressive.

That level of involvement in the attacking play of this excellent Unai Emery side makes him a valuable proposition in FPL, particularly with Villa having the softest run of fixtures of any side between now and a Gameweek 13 trip to the Tottenham Hotspur stadium.

If you’re using your Wildcard this week, finding room for Watkins, Matty Cash and Moussa Diaby in your line-up could pay serious dividends.

Martin Odegaard (MID, £8.5m)

Risers and Fallers celebrates the wins when they arrive but also has to accept the losses. Last week, ahead of a plum away fixture at struggling Bournemouth, we had Odegaard as a Faller, in large part because he appeared to have permanently relinquished penalty duties to Bukayo Saka.

In the event, Odegaard took Arsenal’s first penalty (although not their second) and delivered a 17-point FPL return for backers who stayed patient. You can’t rely on those penalty taking responsibilities sticking, but the Norwegian wasn’t on them last year and still delivered mega returns.

A home fixture against Manchester City probably isn’t the time to buy into the Norwegian, but after that things get a whole lot easier for the Gunners. Factor the penalty uncertainty into your decision but Odegaard is a baller regardless.

Jarrod Bowen (MID, £7.3m)

West Ham are a genuine contender for a European place this season and certainly look good enough to dispose of opponents with fewer resources. The loss of Declan Rice has been ameliorated by the acquisition and seamless integration of James Ward-Prowse, while Lucas Paqueta is a genuinely top-class midfielder.

All of which has benefitted Bowen, who remains the focal point of this attack and looks to have rediscovered the form that made him a must-pick asset in FPL a couple of seasons ago.

Bowen’s latest haul – a nine-point return in a 2-0 home win against struggling Sheffield United – took him to fifth in point scoring in fantasy, just three points behind Son Heung-min and only five behind Haaland. The winger is still available at under £7.5m and while the next two fixtures (Newcastle at home and Aston Villa away) are tough, things soften up after that.

Get Bowen on your FPL radar if he wasn’t already.

Miguel Almiron (MID, £6.3m)

Almiron demonstrated last season that when he gets hot, he can get really hot. The big concern this campaign was whether he’d be subject to rotation following the acquisition of Harvey Barnes and Anthony Gordon.

The former is injured and expected to be out until the turn of the year, while the latter has a one-game suspension to see out for picking up five yellow cards. The Barnes injury in particular should give Almiron much greater opportunity in one of the better forward lines in the division.

Almiron has seized that opportunity so far, bagging goals in each of his last two fixtures, with West Ham (A), Crystal Palace (H) and Wolves (A) up next. He looks a near nailed on starter most weeks and is still available for less than £6.5m in FPL. Buy now before that price goes up.

Joachim Anderson (DEF, £4.8m)

Anderson you sneaky son of a gun. The Crystal Palace centre half has quietly had a storming start to the campaign and currently has one more point than Mohamed Salah in FPL.

That is in large part down to the fact he’s found the net twice, although back-to-back clean sheets in the last two Gameweeks haven’t hurt either.

You can’t expect that goalscoring rate to continue but Anderson is a serious threat from set pieces and has a mean long-range shot on him too. Palace are also well organised, meaning he should continue to get his fair share of shut out points.

A home fixture against Nottingham Forest provides the perfect platform to continue his excellent form.

Fallers

Pervis Estupinan (DEF, £5.2m)

If you read Fallers a couple of weeks ago and ditched Estupinan as a result, you dodged a -2 points disaster in FPL in Gameweek 7. To be fair, the Peruvian was unlucky to score an own goal and could easily have bagged himself before being subbed off at half-time.

We’d have had him in Fallers regardless after Brighton conceded six at Villa Park, but news he has picked up an injury that will keep him out for a month or so obviously sealed the deal.

To be fair, you might have been selling anyway with fixtures against Liverpool (H) and Manchester City (A) on the slate for the next two Gameweeks. Things get a lot easier for Brighton after that, which should roughly coincide with Estupinan’s return to fitness.

Jordan Pickford (GK, £4.4m)

Everton’s renaissance was short-lived. After looking excellent in a 3-1 win away at Brentford, the Toffees were terrible as they lost 2-1 at home to Luton Town in Gameweek 7.

Despite failing to keep a clean sheet all season during a run of fixtures that has included at least four relatively ‘easy’ match-ups, Pickford is still in almost 10% of FPL teams.

Bournemouth at home are next but you can’t trust Everton, full-stop. Find an alternative between the sticks - there are plenty of good options at different price points (West Ham’s Areola being the obvious budget choice).

Marcus Rashford (MID, £8.8m)

The rot at Old Trafford has set deep and even very good players are suffering as a result. If you’ve kept the faith with Rashford so far, don’t kick yourself – it made sense given the run of, on paper at least, attractive fixtures.

A 1-0 win at Burnley was a good result but the 1-0 defeat at home to Crystal Palace certainly wasn’t, and Rashford failed to deliver in either fixture. His one goal so far is a statistical underperformance, but not to the extent a massive mean regression should be expected.

There is some risk in ditching the attacker ahead of a home game against troubled Brentford and an trip to Sheffield United, but the England man simply isn’t justifying the near-£9m investment he demands.

Raheem Sterling (MID, £7m)

Chelsea put in their best performance of the season in a 2-0 win at Fulham – and it wasn’t because of Sterling. The England winger was benched after being ill during the week and had little impact when he came on.

Lack of form, the fact he is no longer a guaranteed starter, plus the fact Chelsea’s attack generally still looks, at best, a work in progress means it’s best to look elsewhere for midfield points in FPL.

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Cheers

Tom