Risers and Fallers: Chaos at Man United and the sub-£7m City assets you need to consider in FPL
Plus the case for bringing in Kieran Trippier and the impact of possible rotation at Brighton.
We’re already five Gameweeks into the Premier League season and, provided you’ve handed the captain’s armband to Erling Haaland since the get-go, you are likely very much in touch with the leaders of your FPL mini-league.
If the Norwegian is a captain lock for 2023/24, which barring injury looks likely, then finding the edge across the rest of your squad is even more important. Risers and Fallers aims to help you do that, combining what we see on the pitch with data from our data partner Impect to better understand the fantasy performances that are sustainable and the players you should be worried about.
Injuries and squad rotation are also throwing up opportunities and challenges across the Premier League, most notably at reigning champions Manchester City.
And it’s to the Etihad Stadium we head first, with several notable absences opening up opportunities for two very reasonably priced FPL assets…
Risers
Julian Alvarez (FWD, £6.9m)
Alvarez, effectively operating in the De Bruyne role in the Premier League’s best attack, continues to earn rave reviews from manager Pep Guardiola and big points for his fantasy football backers. The Argentina international bagged another pair of assists and nine FPL points as City eventually swept aside West Ham’s stubborn resistance at the Olympic Stadium in East London in Gameweek 5. Alvarez also struck the upright from a free-kick reminiscent of KDB at his best and has started every game this season. His underlying Impect data supports those impressive returns continuing, meaning his FPL price will likely continue to rise. With Jack Grealish and Bernardo Silva both injured, Jeremy Doku, who was sensational in the second half against the Hammers, is also appealing ahead of a home fixture against Nottingham Forest.
Mo Salah (MID, £12.5m)
The availability of so many high-scoring, relatively low-cost FPL midfielders in the early going of this season has opened the door for picking Salah in your line-up alongside Haaland. The Egyptian international is as reliable as they come in fantasy football, delivering attacking returns in each of the opening five fixtures, including two brilliant assists in Liverpool’s 3-1 win at Molineux against Wolves on Saturday lunchtime. He’s also underperforming his post-shot expected goals (xG) figure, meaning positive mean regression could be on the cards in the coming weeks.
Kieran Trippier (DEF, £6.5m)
Sven Botman appears to be the key to this Newcastle defence, with the German’s return coinciding with a clean sheet during which Brentford, prior to Saturday one of the most potent attacks in the league, recorded a shot-based xG figure (Impect’s measure of the quality of scoring chances created) of just 0.81. Botman being back in the line-up is also good news for Kieran Trippier. The England international’s underlying attacking data hasn’t been great so far this campaign, but that’s understandable given the difficulty of his opponents (Aston Villa, Manchester City, Liverpool, Brighton and Brentford). Up next for the Magpies are Sheffield United (A) and Burnley (H) – potentially the perfect time to buy into the attacking right-back.
Leandro Trossard (MID, £6.6m)
This one is pretty simple. With Gabriel Martinelli injured, Trossard should take up one of three attacking positions in one of the top offensive units in the division. The Belgian winger has been a consistent source of goals and assists when given game time - including the winner against Everton in Gameweek 5 - and is well-placed to benefit in FPL in Martinelli’s absence.
Dejan Kulusevski (MID, £7m)
Given Richarlison’s public challenges with mental health, it was no surprise to see the Brazilian’s brilliant cameo against Sheffield United leading match reports over the weekend. However, the presence of club captain Son Heung-min means minutes are far from guaranteed. Sweden international Kulusevski, meanwhile, appears to have locked down the right-wing spot and was a constant threat on Saturday prior to scoring a dramatic 100th-minute winner. Tough fixtures against Arsenal and Liverpool in the next two Gameweeks, combined with the fact his underlying attacking data has been a little mixed, mean he’s probably one to watch rather than one to buy at this stage.
Fallers
Bruno Fernandes (MID, £8.4m)
Dysfunction at Manchester United has hurt the performances and FPL points returns of their key players – none more so than Bruno Fernandes. Priced at the start of the campaign at £8.5m, the United captain looked like a player poised for a big year after ending the last campaign with a glut of fantasy returns. The fact he has just a single goal and assist – both against Nottingham Forest in Gameweek 3 – has hurt his backers, particularly as lower-cost alternatives have delivered much higher points totals over that period. His underlying data backs up his current status as a middle-of-the-pack midfielder who is priced on the fringes of premium in FPL. A trip to Burnley in Gameweek 6 followed by a home fixture against Crystal Palace might be just enough to persuade the 20% of FPL managers who still have the Portuguese midfielder to keep the faith for a little longer.
Andre Onana (GK, £4.9m)
Onana has conceded at least two goals in United’s last four fixtures, including three at home to an impressive Brighton outfit in Gameweek 5. Injuries at centre-back and Casemiro’s dip in form haven’t helped, but it’s hard to make a case for retaining the United stopper based on current form, even with two relatively soft fixtures on the horizon.
Aaron Ramsdale (GK, £5m)
Rotation in any position is not ideal, so seeing Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta choose David Raya over Ramsdale for a plum fixture against Everton means it’s time to look at alternative options in FPL. If the Spaniard wins the No.1 spot outright he may be a viable option, but in the meantime there are plenty of perfectly serviceable goalkeepers priced at below £5m.
Alexander Isak (FWD, £7.6m)
Love the player, hate the fact he was rested ahead of a big European night. Anyone backing Isak needs at the very least to have a strong bench to turn to – and be prepared to ride the emotional wave of hoping Eddie Howe doesn’t bring him on with five minutes to go each week he is rested.
Pervis Estupinan (DEF, £5.3m)
Sometimes in FPL, not playing can hurt your value. Such is the case with Estupinan, who was rested at Old Trafford and more-than-ably replaced by Tariq Lamptey. The former Chelsea full-back cut Manchester United to shreds down the flank and delivered two assists into the bargain. Not a sell signal at all – particularly with Bournemouth at home on the horizon – but a dynamic to watch over the coming weeks.
Thanks for reading. As always, if you enjoyed this article and think others would too, please help us spread the word about Fantasy Gameweek by sharing it far and wide.
Cheers
Tom