Players to watch in FPL Gameweek 21
Digging into the data on three differentials for your FPL team + FGPE rankings for Gameweek 21
Hello everyone and welcome to the latest edition of Fantasy Gameweek. The deadline for Gameweek 21 transfers and changes is 11am on Saturday UK time. There are no double Gameweeks this time. For the full fixture list you can click here.
In this edition we will look at players to consider bringing in for Gameweek 21 by studying the leaders in key metrics provided by Impect, our data partner, and the latest player rankings in our FGPE index. If you missed it, Tom looked at the fall-out from Gameweek 20 in our last edition, including Brighton, Liverpool, Arsenal and Leeds. You can read it here.
Our first use of Impect’s data last week had pretty extraordinary results. I pulled out four key metrics that Impect provides to look at the most influential players in the Premier League since December 26. A remarkable proportion of those players went on to deliver returns in the last Gameweek:
Evan Ferguson - assist
Marcus Rashford - goal, three bonus points
Martin Odegaard - goal, one bonus point
Solly March - two goals, one assist, three bonus points
Jack Grealish - goal
Ivan Toney - goal, three bonus points
Kaoru Mitoma - one assist
James Ward-Prowse - two goals, three bonus points
Kieran Trippier - clean sheet, three bonus points
Hakim Ziyech - assist
Kevin De Bruyne - assist
Christian Eriksen - assist, one bonus point
Harry Kane - assist
I would describe that as impressive. As we head into Gameweek 21, all of the players above should be on your radar. Here is the updated list of players leading the Offensive Impect metric since the Premier League restarted on December 26. This metric looks at the overall attacking effectiveness of a player, measured as a percentage relative to other players…
Solly March - 98
Marcus Rashford - 98
Evan Ferguson - 98
Harry Kane - 97
Jack Grealish - 97
Danny Ings - 96
Martin Odegaard - 96
Aleksandar Mitrovic - 96
Kai Havertz - 95
Daniel Podence - 95
And here are your leaders in post-shot XG since December 26, which shows expected goals after a shot has been taken, so looks at the quality of a shot as well as the quality of the chance…
James Ward-Prowse - 3.5
Marcus Rashford - 3.3
Aleksandar Mitrovic - 2.7
Eddie Nketiah - 2.6
Harry Kane - 2.6
Kaoru Mitoma - 2.4
Erling Haaland - 2.3
Brennan Johnson - 2.3
Ivan Toney - 2
Solly March - 1.9
And here are the leaders for bypassed defenders, which shows how many defensive players a player takes out of the game with their play, ie pass or dribble
Naby Keita - 12.6
Trent Alexander-Arnold - 12.3
Hakim Ziyech - 11.8
Alexis Mac Allister - 11.4
Kieran Trippier - 11.2
Lewis Hall - 10.7
Youri Tielemans - 10.7
Christian Norgaard - 10.4
Jack Harrison - 10.3
Fred - 10.2
And here are the leaders for bypassed defenders receiving, which shows how many defensive players are taken out of the game when this player gets the ball and therefore looks at the quality of the positions they are getting into infront of goal
Darwin Nunez - 21.6
Callum Wilson - 19.8
Kai Havertz - 18.4
Rodrigo - 18.4
Eddie Nketiah - 18.2
Anthony Martial - 18.2
Harry Kane - 17.3
Leandro Trossard - 16.7
Neal Maupay - 16.4
Mo Salah - 16.3
Looking at this data, other Impect metrics and FPL points I want to pull out three lowly-owned players for special attention. These are players owned by less than 10 per cent of Fantasy Premier League teams who could give you a real edge over the next few weeks…
Solly March, MID, £5.1m, Brighton
Owned by just 4.1 per cent of teams but the third most transferred-in player ahead of Gameweek 21 (behind Martin Odegaard (MID, £6.8m) and Ivan Toney (FOR, £7.6m)) after a remarkable haul of points since the Premier League returned. March (pictured, above) has 44 points in the last four Gameweeks, including four goals, two assists and nine bonus points. To put that into perspective, he has only four goals across the previous five Premier League seasons, plus only 14 assists.
It is tempting to dismiss March’s streak as a freak, but something has changed under new manager Roberto De Zerbi. March has spoken about the confidence that De Zerbi has given him and his manager says he has made a bet with his player about scoring more than 10 goals this season…
Brighton have a really attractive run of fixtures ahead: Leicester away, Bournemouth home, Palace away, Fulham home. However, a couple of words of warning. Although they are the top scorers since the Premier League returned with 11 goals, they rank only fifth for Impect’s packing non-shot based xG (behind Man City, Man United, Liverpool and Arsenal) and eighth for shot-based xG (behind Man United, Liverpool, Man City, Arsenal, Fulham, Newcastle and Brentford). In other words, March’s performance has coincided with a run of goal-scoring from Brighton that may be unsustainable. Also, given we are limited to three players per team, you may decide that Kauru Mitoma (MID, £5m), Evan Ferguson (FOR, £4.5m), Pascal Gross (MID, £5.6m), Pervis Estupinan (DEF, £4.5m) or Levi Colwill (DEF, £4.4m) are more attractive options.
March, however, ranks number one on Impect’s Offensive Impect metric since the Premier League restarted, which looks at overall attacking effectiveness, just ahead of Marcus Rashford (MID, £7.1m). His efficiency infront of goal has been striking. His goals have come at a rate of 2.5 shots per goal, joint fifth with Rashford and Demarai Gray (MID, £6.5m), and his xG is just 1.2, the same as his teammate Ferguson and way down the list of leaders in this category, behind Aleksandar Mitrovic (FOR, £7.2m) who is top with 3.26, as well as Mitoma, who has 1.81, and three players who have no goals at all - Darwin Nunez (FWD, £8.8m), Harvey Barnes (MID, £6.8m) and Andreas Pereira(MID, £4.6m). The other two players to have scored four goals since December 26 are Rashford, who has an xG of 2.48, and James Ward-Prowse (MID, £6.2m), who has xG of 2.13. March is also low down the list for Impect’s bypassed defenders metric and its bypassed defenders receiving metric, meaning the number of players he takes out of a game with his play and the positions he gets himself into are not outstanding.
However, March is playing in a right-wing role for one of the Premier League’s attacking teams and is going to get opportunities. His overperformance recently is also something of a regression to the mean after an underperformance earlier in the season. Across the season as a whole his xG is 3.9 and his shots-per-goal is 9, among the highest in the league. In fact, before his first goal of the season against Southampton in Gameweek 17 (a stunning long-range shot) the number of shots he had taken without a goal was league-leading…
March’s right-wing role under De Zerbi was a position he played under his predecessor Graham Potter too, although he also played as wing-back. However, what De Zerbi may also have given him is confidence, especially with his finishing.
So, don’t write off March’s run of goals as a fluke. He could definitely be part of a Brighton triple in your team in the next few weeks, although Mitoma and Ferguson - who rank ahead of him in other key attacking stats - should probably be considered first.
James Ward-Prowse, MID, £6.2m, Southampton
Like March, a stand-out FPL performer since the Premier League restarted. He has 29 points since December 26, including four goals and five bonus points. Before that he only had one goal all season. Ward-Prowse scored in the FA Cup against Crystal Palace too.
Also like March, the Southampton midfielder has a new manager in Nathan Jones, but unlike the Brighton man, Ward-Prowse has FPL pedigree, including 10 goals and five assists last season. Until December 26, Ward-Prowse had been dragged down by Southampton’s general malaise, explaining why his ownership stands at just 5.2 per cent when before the season there were plenty of FPL managers expecting consistent returns and value from the midfielder.
Ward-Prowse has a post-shot xG of 3.5 since the Premier League restarted, which is the best of all players and a reflection of his renowned ball-striking ability as well as the opportunities he has enjoyed. His xG is 2.13, which is eighth.
While this makes Ward-Prowse an interesting option, he offers little else in FPL beyond sweet ball-striking right now. His Offensive Impect score is 91 per cent and he lags well behind other midfielders on bypassed defenders and bypassed defenders receiving, scoring just 3.7 and 1.6 on those metrics when someone like Hakim Ziyech (MID, £5.5m) has registered 11.8 and 6 respectively.
More stunning goals from the Southampton man can be expected this season, but his recently consistency should not be. Nonetheless, at £6.2m, Ward-Prowse is someone who delivers solid value and you could do worse than add him. Southampton’s forthcoming fixtures are decent - they play Aston Villa at home, then Brentford away, then Wolves at home, Chelsea away, Leeds away and Leicester at home.
Kai Havertz, FOR, £7.8m Chelsea
After looking at two players on a hot streak, here is a player who could be about to go on his own. Chelsea have problems but they still have talented players, and Havertz is one.
The German is owned by just 5.4 per cent of FPL teams and many of those were owners who will have felt let down when he scored just four points in a double Gameweek 19. However, he ranks ninth for Offensive Impect since Boxing Day - ahead of Erling Haaland (FOR, £12.2m) and Toney - third on bypassed defenders receiving behind only Nunez and Callum Wilson (FOR, £7.2m) - a reflection of him getting on the end of through balls - and third for xG behind only Mitrovic and Haaland.
His finishing has been letting him down, however. Indeed, a lack of a cutting-edge infront of goal has been a constant problem for Havertz. His post-shot xG to xG ratio is 0.5. This measures how a forward converts xG into post-shot xG, so looks at the quality of his finish. Havertz’s 0.5 is the same as Nunez’s, another player whose finishing has let him down, and nearly half the 0.9 of Haaland. It is well behind the 1.7 of Harry Kane (FOR, £11.7m) and Ward-Prowse, two players renowned for their shooting ability.
Nonetheless, Chelsea now face a Liverpool team who play a high defensive line and have conceded six goals in their last two league games. Jurgen Klopp brought in new players for Liverpool’s FA Cup match with Wolves so it is unclear how they may approach this fixture, but Havertz should have chances. After playing Liverpool, Chelsea then have an attractive run of fixtures - Fulham at home, West Ham away, and Southampton at home. Havertz should be on your radar.
FGPE
Here is our latest look at the top 100 players in FPL in terms of value and upside. Our FPGE rankings use an algorithm to calculate a score for each player based on their price, FPL points, appearances, points per million and points relative to the top points haul each week.
The logic behind the FGPE is that value and upside are crucial in FPL. We shouldn’t judge players who are priced differently the same. And we must remember that the winner in FPL is who turns their £100 million into the most points - we can’t just pick the best players, so we need to make sure that we get the most out of each £1 million. The FGPE helps you do that.
As an example of how to use the FGPE, look at Mo Salah (MID, £12.8m). He is the 11th best scorer overall in FPL in terms of total points, but is way down at the bottom of this list because he costs £12.8m and isn’t offering great value. If you have Salah, you should be looking for better value elsewhere. Also, you can use this graph to help you pick which Arsenal midfielders to choose. According to the FGPE, the higher price for Bukayo Saka (MID, £8.1m) just isn’t worth paying compared to teammates Gabriel Martinelli (MID, £6.8m) and especially Odegaard, the best value player in FPL right now…
That’s it for this edition. Thanks for reading. Please share with others if you enjoyed Fantasy Gameweek and spread the word. Best of luck in Gameweek 21
Graham