⚽ Midweek madness
Gameweek 33 preview
Hello everyone and welcome to the latest edition of Fantasy Gameweek. It’s a quick turnaround to Gameweek 33 so this is a shorter edition than usual. We look at the risers and fallers in Fantasy Premier League after the last round of matches and then the latest data from Impect, our data partner.
The deadline for transfers and changes to your team is 6pm UK time on Tuesday. These are your fixtures for Gameweek 33:
There are ten matches in Gameweek 33, with every team playing once. Thank you to the subscribers who spotted and flagged the error in our last edition. We wrote that West Ham were among the four teams not to play in Gameweek 32. However, as you hopefully noticed from the list of fixtures below and everything else we wrote, West Ham played Bournemouth and it was Chelsea without a game. Apologies for the error.
After this set of midweek matches we move on to Gameweek 34 on Saturday, which is a big one. There are 13 matches in that Gameweek with doubles for Brighton, Fulham, Liverpool, Man City, Man United and West Ham. Keep these fixtures in mind when making your transfers for Gameweek 33 - ideally you want to set yourself up for those doubles.
Let’s now get into the risers and fallers with Tom…
The Risers
Alexander Isak
We’ve been big fans of Alexander Isak (FWD, £6.8m) for a while. After his two-goal performance against Nottingham Forest in Gameweek 28 we suggested he could be a “set and forget” striker in FPL for the remainder of the season.
He failed to score in the subsequent game but was nonetheless impressive in Newcastle’s 2-0 win against Manchester United at St James’ Park. He then bagged goals against West Ham (A) and Brentford (A) in the next matches. Isak wasn’t the only player to struggle in Newcastle’s Gameweek 31 demolition by Aston Villa, but patient managers were rewarded with another brace and 13 points in an extraordinary thumping of Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday.
A trip to Goodison Park to play relegation-threatened Everton is up next followed by a home fixture against Southampton, one of the league’s worst defences. This provides an ideal opportunity for Isak to continue his prolific form. Pick him with confidence.
Diogo Jota
We said last week that FPL managers looking to make ground on their mini-league rivals might consider Portuguese forward Diogo Jota (FWD, £8.8m) as a differential selection ahead of a soft run of fixtures for Liverpool. Those who took the gamble were richly rewarded in Gameweek 32 as he scored a double in a 3-2 home victory over Nottingham Forest, building on his two-goal performance against Leeds United in the previous match.
Jota now has 29 FPL points in his last two fixtures and has started each of the last five games for Jurgen Klopp’s men. That is exactly the kind of consistent selection you want to see at this stage of the season – particularly as Liverpool’s Gameweek 33 trip to West Ham is followed by a potentially fruitful Gameweek 34, with two home fixtures against a faltering Spurs and mid-table Fulham.
Unsurprisingly, Jota’s underlying data in those last two fixtures is excellent, shifting his FPL status from “risky differential gamble” to “key target”.
Jarrod Bowen
Arguably the big value FPL story of last season, Jarrod Bowen (MID, £8m) has regressed in this campaign, perhaps predictably. He has registered five goals, eight assists and 121 points so far, which is by no means terrible. However, in 2021/22 the winger scored 12, assisted 17 and delivered 206 fantasy points.
That dip in output is undoubtedly in part a result of West Ham’s poor form generally, so the East London side’s recent improvement – particularly in the attacking third – is encouraging.
West Ham are unbeaten in three fixtures since a 5-1 home drubbing against Newcastle, scoring seven goals during that run – including four against Bournemouth on Sunday.
Bowen has delivered an attacking return in each of the last four fixtures and is worth backing to continue that form at home against a Liverpool defence which remains shaky. After that, West Ham have a double fixture in Gameweek 34, albeit a challenging one against Crystal Palace (A) and Man City (A).
The Fallers
Tottenham Hotspur players not called Harry Kane
Tottenham have somehow maintained a top-four challenge this season despite being unimpressive for large chunks of the campaign. That Champions League challenge took a significant blow on Sunday with a 6-1 defeat at Newcastle. Spurs were 5-0 down after just 21 minutes.
Spurs look bereft of structure and confidence. The sacking of interim coach Cristian Stellini after the Newcastle loss was not a big surprise.
Ryan Mason is now in charge of Spurs until the end of the season but matches against Man United (H) and a resurgent Liverpool (A) in the next two weeks mean things are likely to get worse before they get better. It is hard to imagine trusting any Spurs player not called Harry Kane (FWD, £11.5m) between now and the end of the season in FPL, unless Mason can oversee a dramatic improvement.
Tottenham’s woes mean Kane is the most transferred-out player in FPL this week. However, the England forward is having a remarkable season, with 24 goals and six assists. This is the most goals he has scored in a season since 29 in 2016/2017 and 2017/2018, so he could be on-course for his best-ever season. Kane has consistently shown the ability to score points even when Spurs play poorly, including against Newcastle on Sunday, and capitalise when they play well. It is worth remembering that when Spurs played Manchester United earlier in the season at Old Trafford in Gameweek 12 they lost 2-0 and were completely outplayed. However, do not lose faith in Kane in FPL…
These are the top transfers-out in full….
Arsenal defenders
Arsenal’s inability to keep clean sheets is now something FPL managers simply have to account for. The league leaders have gone five games without a shutout, shipping nine goals during that run, including three at home against bottom club Southampton on Friday night.
The absence of William Saliba (DEF, £5m) is clearly hurting the Gunners and with Man City, Newcastle and Brighton coming up it is not going get easier for this creaking backline.
What’s more, Arsenal’s attack is firing. Arsenal have scored 25 goals in their last eight matches, an average of more than three a game. Ignoring their defence in FPL means you can get three of their midfielders or forwards into your team, such as Gabriel Martinelli (MID, £6.9m), the top-scoring midfielder in FPL this season, Bukayo Saka (MID, £8.4m), who is third, and Martin Odegaard (MID, £6.7m), who is fourth. Only Erling Haaland (FWD, £12.3m) and Kane have more points than Martinelli this season.
It doesn’t sound like Saliba will be back anytime soon judging by Mikel Arteta’s comments in Arsenal’s pre-match press conference…
Given the absence of Saliba, Haaland looks a strong option as captain for many FPL teams. The Norwegian transfer is the most transferred-in player ahead of Gameweek 33 after not having a Premier League match last week. Interestingly, Isak is the only player on this list without two matches in Gameweek 34…
Cody Gakpo
We still like the talent and potential value of Cody Gakpo (MID, £7.7m) but the form of Diogo Jota combined with a 59th-minute substitution in Gameweek 33 means there is clearly a risk of reduced minutes for the Dutchman in the coming weeks. The return to fitness of Luis Diaz (MID, £7.8m) further complicates his outlook. That is crucial as you consider your selections for Gameweek 34, when Liverpool have a double fixture.
Rankings
It’s time to look at the latest key performance indicators from Impect, our data partner, and how Premier League players rank after the last round of matches. These rankings are based on data from December 26, the first gameweek after the World Cup, and each player must have played at least 20 per cent of the minutes available since then to be included.
Offensive Impect - overall attacking effectiveness
Ollie Watkins - 100
Erling Haaland - 99.5
Marcus Rashford - 99
Harry Kane - 98.5
Alexander Isak - 98
Mo Salah - 97.5
Kevin De Bruyne - 97
Solly March - 96.5
Jack Grealish - 96
Kelechi Iheanacho - 95.5
Kaoru Mitoma - 95
Bypassed defenders - how many opposition defenders a player takes out of the game with their play, including passing and dribbling, a measure of their effectiveness and influence
Trent Alexander-Arnold - 13
Kevin De Bruyne - 12
Bruno Fernandes - 10
Alexis Mac Allister - 8
Solly March - 8
Alex Iwobi - 8
Pascal Gross - 8
Christian Norgaard - 8
Mateo Kovacic - 8
Kieran Trippier - 8
Post-shot xG - quality of chances and quality of shot
Ollie Watkins - 11.51
Harry Kane - 10.02
Erling Haaland - 7.78
Mo Salah - 7.43
Alexander Isak - 7.37
Marcus Rashford - 7.04
Ivan Toney - 6.8
Kaoru Mitoma - 5.97
Alexis Mac Allister - 5.73
Darwin Nunez - 5.64
Offensive Impect, defenders only
Trent Alexander-Arnold - 100
Lewis Dunk - 98.9
Kieran Trippier - 97.7
Ben Chilwell - 96.6
Ben White - 95.5
Luke Shaw - 94.3
Joel Veltman - 93.2
Marcos Senesi - 92
Pervis Estupinan - 90.9
Luke Ayling - 88.6
That’s it for this edition. We will be back on Friday to preview Gameweek 34. Thanks for reading Fantasy Gameweek and best of luck in Gameweek 33. Please share Fantasy Gameweek with others you think will find it useful and interesting.
Best
Graham and Tom