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What you need to know for Gameweek 22

Hello and welcome back to Fantasy Gameweek. This is our round-up of everything you need to know for Gameweek 22 in Fantasy Premier League. It includes the news that matters, the key data from Impect, our data partner, and the risers and fallers.

The deadline for transfers and changes to your team for Gameweek 22 is 6pm UK time on Tuesday January 30 - that’s today!

Here are some of the key news stories this week:

-Pep Guardiola says Erling Haaland is back from injury for Manchester City. More here
-You may have heard that Jurgen Klopp will leave Liverpool at the end of the season. In other Liverpool news, Trent Alexander-Arnold is back in training. More here
-The January transfer window has been quiet so far, but Crystal Palace have been looking to do deals. More here

These are the fixtures for Gameweek 22:

These are the most transferred-in players this week so far:

And these are the transfers-out:

Now for the key data from Impect, our data partner. Instead of looking at what has happened since the start of the season, this is what has happened since Gameweek 14 at the start of December.

These are the top-five and bottom-five teams for xG per game. As a reminder, xG measures the quality of chances that a team creates by attributing a score to each chance based on the likelihood of it being a goal. For example, if the chance was certain to be a goal then it would get an xG score of 1.

Best
Liverpool - 2.67
Arsenal - 2.16
Man City - 2.04
Chelsea - 1.98
Newcastle - 1.98

Worst
Luton - 0.83
Sheffield United - 1.12
Burnley - 1.17
Crystal Palace - 1.2
Everton - 1.23

And here are the best five and worst five for xG per game conceded:

Best
Arsenal - 0.77
Liverpool - 1
Man City - 1.07
Aston Villa - 1.11
Bournemouth - 1.12

Worst
Newcastle - 2.67
Luton - 1.98
Sheffield United - 1.97
Fulham - 1.83
Tottenham - 1.83

Moving on to the players, these are the top-10 for Offensive Impect, which measures the attacking effectiveness of a player for their team when they are on the pitch…

Cole Palmer - 100
Heung-Min Son - 99
Dominic Solanke - 98.1
Phil Foden - 97.1
Elijah Adebayo - 96.2
Matheus Cunha - 95.2
Michael Olise - 94.3
Ollie Watkins - 93.3
Mo Salah - 92.4
Gabriel Jesus - 91.4

And these are the players with the highest xG….

Dominic Solanke - 6.76
Mo Salah - 5.27
Darwin Nunez - 4.33
Julian Alvarez - 3.85
Joao Pedro - 3.7
Richarlison - 3.62
Matheus Cunha - 3.51
Miguel Almiron - 3.26
Leandro Trossard - 3.2
Gabriel Jesus - 3.2

Next, these are the post-shot xG rankings. As a reminder, post-shot xG measures the quality of a chance after the shot has been taken, so it also takes into account the quality of the shot:

Dominic Solanke - 7.75
Mo Salah - 7.34
Joao Pedro - 4.75
Jarrod Bowen - 4.63
Darwin Nunez - 4.46
Richarlison - 4.12
Matheus Cunha - 4.07
Julian Alvarez - 4.05
Keane Lewis-Potter - 3.82
Raul Jimenez - 3.78

These are the top-10 players for bypassed defenders, which measures how many opposition defenders a player takes out of the game with their passing or dribbling. It is a way to track a player’s attacking impact in a game:

Bruno Fernandes - 11
Trent Alexander-Arnold - 10
Pascal Gross - 10
Martin Odegaard - 10
Cole Palmer - 10
Rodri - 9
Michael Olise - 9
Ross Barkley - 9
Pedro Porro - 8
Bruno Guimaraes - 8

Now let’s see the top-10 players for bypassed defenders receiving, which measures how many opposition defenders were taken out of the game when a player receives the ball. It measures the quality of the attacking positions that a player gets themselves in with the ball:

Ollie Watkins - 16
Elijah Adebayo - 15.9
Dominic Solanke - 14
Gabriel Jesus - 13.4
Joao Pedro - 12.6
Heung-Min Son - 12.3
Matheus Cunha - 12.2
Jarrod Bowen - 12
Mo Salah - 11.7
Alexander Isak - 11.5

Lastly, these are the top defenders for Offensive Impect, which shows the defenders who are contributing to attacks, which is really useful to know for FPL:

Marcos Senesi - 100
Alfie Doughty - 97.9
Gabriel - 95.8
Pedro Porro - 93.8
Kyle Walker - 91.7
Ben Davies - 89.6
Max Kilman - 87.5
Levi Colwill - 85.4
Jan Paul Van Hecke - 83.3
Craig Dawson - 81.3

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Finally, let’s look at the risers and fallers…

Risers

Kevin De Bruyne (MID, £10.6m)

Such is the abundance of resources available to Pep Guardiola and Manchester City that Kevin De Bruyne, one of the best players in modern Premier League history, has barely been mentioned during his injury absence. But in 21 breathtaking minutes against Eddie Howe’s Newcastle United at St James’ Park in Gameweek 21, De Bruyne reminded the footballing world and fantasy managers of his elite capabilities in the final third. 

His equalising goal, caressed into the bottom corner from the edge of the penalty area, was exquisite, while his assist for Oscar Bobb’s calmly taken winner was the sort of pass only a handful of footballers on the planet would even attempt. 

Having been rested in City’s 1-0 win at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in the FA Cup, we’re assuming the Belgian international gets the nod from the start in a mouthwatering Gameweek 22 match-up at home against struggling Burnley. With a double-fixture in the diary for Gameweek 25 – against Chelsea (H) and Brentford (H) – you’ll likely want to be planning to have three City players in your XI. Provided he gets the game time, De Bruyne is a captaincy candidate this week, particularly with the likes of Mo Salah, Erling Haaland and Son Heung-min absent.

Diogo Jota (MID, £7.9m)

Salah’s injury was always going to present an FPL opportunity, with the only question being which of Liverpool’s talented attackers would earn the trust and minutes from manager Jurgen Klopp. After his two-goal, 19-point performance in the Reds’ impressive 4-0 victory against in-form Bournemouth in Gameweek 21, Portuguese winger Jota looks to have elbowed out Cody Gakpo as the preferred central attacker. 

Jota now has three goals and three assists in his last three Premier League appearances – returns that are even more impressive when you consider he started on the bench in Gameweeks 19 and 20. Despite this stellar form he remains in fewer than 1 in 10 FPL line-ups, perhaps a reflection of the dash to get De Bruyne in by many managers this week. 

Liverpool’s next two fixtures aren’t easy - Chelsea (H) followed by Arsenal (A) – and there is a blank Gameweek 26 to factor in too. Despite that, Jota’s talent and opportunity, particularly with Salah injured, mean he merits consideration this week. The fact he remains a genuine differential simply adds to the appeal.

Darwin Nunez (FWD, £7.5m)

There has been plenty of noise about Nunez’s lack of precision in front of goal this season. While much of that comment has been fair, we prefer a striker who keeps getting into good positions and missing to one who lacks the talent to create chances in the first place. What’s more, there has been a real dearth of centre-forward points in FPL this season, particularly following Haaland’s unexpectedly long absence with a foot injury. 

Given all that, the improved form of Nunez and the faith Klopp appears to be showing in him means he merits serious consideration in fantasy football. The Uruguayan has an attacking return in each of the last three Premier League fixtures and took both his goals expertly against Bournemouth in Gameweek 21. 

Nunez has been a huge statistical underperformer on an expected goals (xG) basis this season and across his career, so a bit of confidence could go a long way.

Fallers

Julian Alvarez (FWD, £7m)

With Haaland unavailable and Guardiola starting him every week, Argentina international Alvarez remains an understandably popular pick in FPL, sitting in over a third of line-ups. However, a preference for dropping deep and getting involved in attacking build-ups has limited his fantasy upside so far, with six goals in 20 starts a pretty average return given the obvious talent both of Alvarez and his City teammates. 

The return of De Bruyne and the expected return of Haaland in the coming weeks create genuine competition for places in City’s forward line. The rise of Oscar Bobb adds further risk of rotation. 

None of that means Alvarez should be dropped, particularly given his next fixture is at home against Burnley and he remains priced at just £7m. But it’s worth keeping an eye on his form and minutes in the coming weeks to assess whether he continues to merit a place in your FPL line-up.

Ollie Watkins (FWD, £8.9m)

Watkins remains the top-scoring attacker in FPL, but his drop in output in recent weeks cannot be ignored. The England striker has just two attacking returns in Aston Villa’s last seven fixtures – a run that has included some tough match-ups but plenty of juicy-looking opponents too. 

As mentioned earlier, the scarcity of high-upside options in attack this season means he merits patience, particularly ahead of a trip to face a Newcastle side that has lost four in a row, conceding 11 goals in the process. 

On paper the games get easier from then onwards, although stubborn, well-organised sides like Sheffield United (who Villa face in Gameweek 23) are unlikely to give Watkins the space he needs to thrive.

Joe Gomez (DEF, £4.5m)

Fresh from his first double-digit points haul of the campaign in Gameweek 21, Gomez looks set to slink back into the FPL shadows following the return to fitness of Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson. The former England international will likely only come back on the radar if there is an injury to one of Jurgen Klopp’s first-choice defensive options between now and the end of the season.

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That’s it for this edition. Thanks for reading and good luck in Gameweek 22.

Graham and Tom