⚽ Gameweek 24 tips: Mo-mentum?
With data partner Impect
Hello everyone and welcome to the latest edition of Fantasy Gameweek. The deadline for transfers and changes for Gameweek 24 is 11am UK time on Saturday. This is a standard gameweek, there are no doubles or blanks. However, we should be planning ahead and thinking about Gameweek 25 because that includes blanks and doubles, as we flagged last week. There are no fixtures for Manchester United, Newcastle United, Brentford and Brighton, while Arsenal, Everton, Liverpool and Wolves have a double gameweek. Of the ten most-owned scoring players in FPL right now, seven of them play for the teams above, so it promises to be an important gameweek. If you still have your Free Hit chip, Gameweek 25 looks an ideal moment to use it….
Talking of last week, our headline in the last edition - Leicester up, Martinelli down - could hardly have been more accurate. Those were two of the key storylines in Gameweek 23, more on both from Tom below.
One other bit of housekeeping before we move on. The FPL website has been updated with new stats from each game and each player. This includes the ability to see players ranked by xG, xA, xGI (expected goal involvement) and xGC (expected goals conceded) over the course of the season, which is useful. You can find the stats here. Yet more confirmation of the central role that data now plays in FPL…
Let’s now get into a round-up of the risers and falls with Tom, before Graham looks at how the top players are performing using a new data source - goalshare - and what key metrics from our data partner Impect are showing.
The Risers…
Leicester City attackers (again)
Leicester City’s attacking triumvirate of James Maddison (MID, £8m), Kelechi Iheanacho (FWD, £6.1m) and Harvey Barnes (MID, £6.7m) were among our top FPL pick-ups for Gameweek 23 after an impressive outing at Villa Park the previous week.
In the words of Alan Partridge…Back of the net! All three of our picks scored in a comprehensive 4-1 win against a beleaguered-looking Tottenham Hotspur side on Saturday. Maddison was once again the inspiration, driving wave upon wave of Leicester attacks and bagging a goal, an assist and 11 FPL points in the process.
The midfielder’s underlying data was once again excellent, with an overall Impect score better than 96% of players in his position. He also registered a post-shot expected goals (xG) of 0.5 for the second game in a row, taking his overall post-shot xG for the campaign to five.
If there is one area to temper your enthusiasm on Maddison, it is in finding the back of the net. He has scored eight times this season, meaning he’s outperforming what the data tells you he’d normally deliver. The next two fixtures – Man United (A) and then Arsenal (H) – are also tough.
Barnes has had his three best underlying data performances of the season in the last three Gameweeks, delivering two goals, two assists and 21 FPL points, making him an excellent lower-cost alternative.
The rapid rise of Iheanacho – a low-priced, low-owned player in fantasy – is arguably the bigger development, however. The striker registered a goal, assist and 12 FPL points in Gameweek 23, hot on the heels of a 15-point haul in Gameweek 22.
Those returns are backed by excellent underlying data, suggesting they were no fluke. However, as noted last week, he remains a streaky player and there is genuine competition for places in attack at Leicester.
Reece James (DEF, £5.8m)
While we remain generally in wait-and-see mode on Graham Potter’s hastily (and expensively) assembled Chelsea side, Reece James should be on your radar.
The attacking right-back has been plagued by injuries throughout his career but when he’s been fit, he’s been a standout performer. Last season, for example, James scored five goals, delivered nine assists and scored 141 FPL points at a rate of around 6.8 points per 90 minutes played.
Against West Ham in Gameweek 23, James delivered an offensive Impect score better than 79% of players in his position group and, almost as crucially, got through 90 minutes unscathed. Across all the games he has played this season, James has an offensive Impect score better than 92% of defenders, just behind Trent Alexander-Arnold (DEF, £7.3m) (93%) and Kieran Trippier (DEF, £6.1m) (93%).
The fixture list is also inviting, with a home game against Southampton followed by a trip to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and then another home fixture versus Leeds United. You’d expect Chelsea to improve and James’ influence to grow across that set of games, meaning now could well be the low point in his FPL price.
Pervis Estupinan (DEF, £4.7m)
We’ve had our eyes on Estupinan for a while now and against Crystal Palace, the buccaneering full-back demonstrated exactly why.
An assist, taking his total for the season to five, and seven FPL points only told part of the story. He also had a beautifully taken goal cruelly disallowed for offside and was a constant menace in the final third.
The data backs up these returns, with Estupinan delivering offensive Impect scores better than 80% or more of players in his position group in three of the last four fixtures.
There are a couple of notes of caution here. Most obviously, Brighton have a blank fixture in Gameweek 25, so you might want to hold off buying into him now.
Of course, if you’ve already decided to drop your Free Hit for that Gameweek then there’s no reason to hold off, particularly with a double Gameweek against Leeds (A) and Crystal Palace (H) coming up in Gameweek 27 and Fulham (H) this weekend.
We also generally say that the key to FPL returns for a defender is combining attacking threat with defensive solidity. Brighton haven’t kept many clean sheets this season, perhaps in part because they adopt such a positive, high-octane style under Roberto De Zerbi.
However, on balance we believe the upside far outweighs any potential downside, particularly for FPL managers looking for differential options in the coming weeks.
The Fallers…
Arsenal defenders
Without a win in three games and off the back of a chastening 3-1 home defeat to title rivals Manchester City, Arsenal are in something of a slump.
There are plenty of reasons to think the Gunners will bounce back. They were dominant in the first half against City and registered a higher xG than their opponent (1.85 versus 1.7). It was the quality of the finishing that was the real difference, with City’s post-shot xG of 2.22 far superior to Arsenal’s 0.83.
Against Brentford the week before, Arsenal were unlucky not to keep a clean sheet, with the VAR official missing a clear offside in the build-up to Ivan Toney’s (FWD £7.6m) equaliser. However, that bad luck shouldn’t mask the fact that the Bees created chances, recording an overall attacking threat score of 2.24 and an xG of 1.57, according to Impect.
That is back-to-back games where Arsenal have looked wobbly defensively, but it is the injury to Thomas Partey (MID, £4.7m) that has really convinced us to downgrade their defenders this week. Much like Casemiro (MID, £4.9m) at Man United or Bruno Guimaraes (MID, £5.6m) at Newcastle, Partey’s role in breaking up attacks and launching Arsenal forward cannot be underestimated.
If he is unavailable, Aston Villa’s generally sprightly attack will fancy their chances of at least finding the net against a side looking more vulnerable than at any point in the season.
Aston Villa defenders
If Villa’s attackers are looking forward to taking on Arsenal a little more than they might have been a few weeks ago, the arrival of a high-intensity attack will do little to calm the nerves of their edgy backline.
Villa conceded four against an admittedly resurgent Leicester side and followed that up with a 3-1 reversal at the Etihad. City actually underperformed their xG of 3.85 in that fixture, while Leicester significantly outperformed their xG of 2.11.
But whichever way you look at it, against quality attacks Villa are conceding large numbers of good chances at an alarming rate. Arsenal may be in a tricky spot but they are the second- best attack in the league and will expect to pile more pain onto former boss Unai Emery on Saturday.
Newcastle United players
Eddie Howe’s Newcastle have been the darlings of FPL this season. Most of their key assets are priced for a mid-table finish at best and yet the Magpies have mounted a genuine top-four challenge.
Key to that challenge has been the league’s meanest defence, with Newcastle conceding just 13 goals in 22 matches – 10 fewer than Man City. Their attack has been less impressive but good enough, registering 35 goals so far this campaign.
However, with influential midfielder Bruno Guimaraes injured, Newcastle have conceded twice in two games against mediocre opposition in West Ham and Bournemouth. They have also struggled to find the net generally, scoring just three times in the last six fixtures.
More worryingly, against Bournemouth last week their opponents recorded an xG of 1.73, while West Ham’s xG a week earlier was 1.27. Based on that statistic alone, Newcastle were lucky to only concede once in each fixture.
Newcastle’s defenders are still keenly priced in FPL and should remain good value, even without Guimaraes. But all Newcastle players need to be given a downgrade based on what we’ve seen recently, and certainly shouldn’t be line-up locks with Liverpool next up at St James’ Park.
Premium assets and goalshare
Let’s now move away from the risers and fallers to look at another talking-point in FPL. Liverpool’s strong performance against Everton, a goal for Mo Salah (MID, £12.6m), and their double gameweek next week means their players are starting to look interesting again. Salah has been off-the-radar given Liverpool’s struggles and the performances of other high-priced players Erling Haaland (FWD, £12.2m), Kevin De Bruyne (MID, £12.4m) and Harry Kane (FWD, £11.8m).
If Liverpool can improve on their miserable form since the Premier League restarted on December 26 then Salah is going to be really relevant in FPL. To illustrate this I wanted to introduce some new data to Fantasy Gameweek - goalshare. This looks at what percentage of a team’s goals have been scored by one player.
As you can see below, Haaland is ridiculous. To put that 44% into context - it means he will end the season with 44 goals if Man City match their total from last season of 99 goals. Only Teemu Pukki at relegated Norwich City last season has had more dominance in recent times. That dominance has consequences beyond Haaland. It is taking goals away from other Man City players, who are less attractive as a consequence. Man City are actually scoring goals at a slightly lower rate this season - 2.57 per game compared to 2.61 this season - so keep that in mind when considering whether to pick Man City players.
But also look at Salah. Despite a disappointing season so far his percentage has barely changed for Liverpool. Liverpool have scored just 1.71 goals per game this season compared to 2.47 last season. Therefore any uptick in their performances should make Salah immediately relevant again. With a double gameweek coming up for Liverpool, Salah is an enticing option.
Here is the goalshare data for the top scorers in the Premier League. It’s also interesting how Bukayo Saka’s (MID, £8.3m) has barely changed - he is benefitting from Arsenal being better - and that Leicester are now sharing out the 24% of goals that came from Jamie Vardy (FWD, £9.1m) last season…
Goalshare this season
Erling Haaland - 26/59 - 44.1%
Harry Kane - 17/42 - 40.5%
Ivan Toney - 14/36 - 38.9%
Marcus Rashford - 12/38 - 31.6%
Aleksandar Mitrovic - 11/34 - 32.4%
Miguel Almiron - 10/36 - 27.8%
Rodrigo - 10/28 - 35.7%
James Maddison - 9/36 - 25%
Harvey Barnes - 8/36 - 22.2%
Mo Salah - 8/36 - 22.2%
Leandro Trossard - 8/39 - 20.1%
Martin Odegaard - 8/47 - 17%
Bukayo Saka - 8/47 - 17%
Roberto Firmino - 7/36 -19.4%
Phi Foden - 7/59 - 11.9%
Gabriel Martinelli - 7/47 - 14.9%
Callum Wilson - 7/36 - 19.4%
Pascal Gross - 7/39 - 17.9%
Danny Ings - 6/19 - 31.6%
Olly Watkins - 6/26 - 23.1%
Goalshare last year
Mo Salah - 23/94 - 24.5%
Son Heung-Min - 23/69 - 33.3%
Cristiano Ronaldo - 18/57 - 31.6%
Harry Kane - 17/69 - 24.6%
Sadio Mane - 16/94 - 17%
Kevin De Bruyne - 15/99 - 15.2%
Diogo Jota - 15/94 - 16%
Jamie Vardy - 15/62 - 24.2%
Wilfried Zaha - 14/50 - 28%
Raheem Sterling - 13/99 - 13.1%
Jarrod Bowen - 12/60 - 20%
James Maddison - 12/62 - 19.4%
Ivan Toney - 12/48 - 25%
Riyad Mahrez - 11/99 - 11.1%
Mason Mount - 11/76 - 14.5%
Bukayo Saka - 11/61 - 18%
Olly Watkins - 11/52 - 21.2%
Michail Antonio - 10/60- 16.7%
Teemu Pukki - 11/23 - 47.8%
Impect leaders
Despite the potential of Salah and other Liverpool players, they are still lagging behind the leaders in the underlying data since the Premier League restarted. Let’s take a fresh look at the leaders in some key Impect categories since December 26 to illustrate this. We will again look at Offensive Impect (overall attacking effectiveness), post-shot xG, bypassed defenders (how many opposition defenders a player takes out with their play) and bypassed defenders receiving (how many defenders are taken out when a player receives the ball, showing they are getting in positions to score goals).
A quick initial thought on what this shows: You can see why Chelsea’s Joao Felix (FWD, £7.6m) is the most transferred-in player in FPL this week. Also, Kelechi Iheanacho (FWD, £6.1m) and James Maddison (MID, £8m) really are elite performers at present…
Offensive Impect
Kelechi Iheanacho - 99
Evan Ferguson - 98
Joao Felix - 98
James Maddison - 98
Marcus Rashford - 97
Sam Surridge - 97
Danny Ings - 97
Harry Kane - 97
Erling Haaland - 97
Solly March - 96
Post-shot xG
Marcus Rashford - 5
Eddie Nketiah - 4.7
Harry Kane - 4.4
Erling Haaland - 4.3
Kaoru Mitoma - 4.2
James Ward-Prowse - 3.5
Aleksandar Mitrovic - 3.4
Brennan Jonson - 3.3
Solly March - 3
Ollie Watkins - 3
Bypassed defenders
Trent Alexander-Arnold - 12.1
Hakim Ziyech - 10.8
Youri Tielemans - 10.7
Siriki Dembele - 9.7
Kevin De Bruyne - 9.5
Kieran Trippier - 9.2
Naby Keita - 9.2
Lewis Hall - 9.1
Jeremy Sarmiento - 8.9
Christian Eriksen - 8.9
Bypassed receiving
Danny Welbeck - 20.7
Callum Wilson - 19.9
Sam Surridge - 19.3
Alexander Isak - 19.2
Darwin Nunez - 18.9
Rodrigo - 18.3
Anthony Martial - 18.2
Raul Jimenez - 18.2
Kai Havertz - 17.7
Kelechi Iheanacho - 175
FGPE rankings
Finally, let’s look at our FGPE rankings, which track the value of players using our algorithm. As you can see, Haaland has slipped down the index, a consequence of only one goal, one assist and no bonus points in his last three matches. This is why any sign of Liverpool and Salah returning to form is important. If Haaland’s output dries up slightly then at £12.2m he is damaging to the value of FPL teams and alternative ways to spend the money open up. Ivan Toney (FWD, £7.6m) is offering superior value to Haaland and Kane, opening up a potential switch for FPL teams whereby Toney comes in for Kane and then Salah can come in for a cheaper midfielder…
The new leader in the FGPE index is Kepa Arrizabalaga (GKP, £4.7m), who as a cheap goalkeeper for one of the Premier League’s top teams is offering great value…
Thanks for reading and best of luck in Gameweek 24. We will be back next week
Best
Tom and Graham