⚽ Double trouble

Gameweek 29 preview

Hello and welcome back to Fantasy Gameweek and Fantasy Premier League. This is the final stretch of the season - there are no more international breaks and ten gameweeks to go until the end of the season.

Gameweek 29 is a big double gameweek, with sixteen matches in total. The eight teams without a double gameweek are Arsenal, Crystal Palace, Everton, Fulham, Man City, Southampton, Spurs and Wolves. Everyone else plays twice. These are the fixtures…

The deadline for transfers and changes is 11am UK time on Saturday.

For those with chips remaining, all of them are options this week - wildcard, free hit, triple captain or bench boost. Remember you can only play one chip at a time.

Bench boost is a popular play among the FPL cognoscenti on Twitter because of the number of games. However, there will be more opportunities to play your chips. Gameweek 34 has already been confirmed as a double gameweek for Brighton, Liverpool, Man City and Man United.

Given that this is a big double gameweek and we are just back from an international break we have put together a broader-than-usual collection of information to help you prepare quickly. Firstly we look at the fall-out from the international break - ie injuries - and then we look at how Premier League players rank in a collection of key performance indicators from our data partner Impect as well as some specific FPL stats.

Let’s get into it…

Top replacements for your international break casualties

To quote Arnold Schwarzenegger when he is reunited with Carl Weathers’ Dillon in the cult classic Predator: “International break you son of a b*tch.”

If you’ve been building your FPL team with Gameweek 29’s double fixtures in mind there’s a fair chance you’ve now got doubts hanging over some key assets.

Chelsea’s in-form Kai Havertz (FWD, £7.6m) and Reece James (DEF, £5.8m) both have knocks, while Manchester United’s Marcus Rashford (MID, £7.3m) pulled out of the England squad ahead of matches against Italy and Ukraine. All three were candidates for the captain’s armband this week given the attractiveness of their fixtures.

Erling Haaland (FWD, £12m), who only has one fixture in Gameweek 29, at home against Liverpool, is also a doubt, while Danny Ward (GK, £4m) was dropped by Brendan Rodgers for Leicester City’s 1-1 draw against Brentford.

Frustrating as all this might be, there is little point in throwing your toys out of the pram. Injuries in particular are part-and-parcel of fantasy football – the key is to manage your way through them in a sensible manner. Keep your eye on the internet and social media for team news.

A key factor in your decision-making this gameweek should be whether or not you’re planning to use your bench boost. If you are, you want to be confident that the players you choose are going to play at least one fixture. 

Given the importance of getting minutes on the pitch, we’ve taken a break from Risers and Fallers this week to focus on the goalkeepers, defenders, midfielders and attackers who could replace the key injured players.

Jason Steele (GK, £3.9m)

With Leicester’s Ward falling out of favour, Brighton manager Roberto De Zerbi’s decision to make Steele his first-choice goalkeeper over Robert Sanchez (GK, £4.6m) could not have come at a better time.

Brighton’s possession-based style has meant their defence has consistently delivered solid returns in FPL, particularly when up against average or below-average opposition. In the 2022/23 season they have conceded the sixth-fewest goals in the Premier League and have two clean sheets in their last three matches.

Gameweek 29 fixtures at home against Brentford and then away at Bournemouth provide an excellent opportunity to continue that solid defensive form. At less than £4m, Steele is the obvious candidate to replace Ward in your line-up.

Pervis Estupinan (DEF, £4.8m)

If you jumped on the Reece James bandwagon ahead of home fixtures against Aston Villa and Liverpool, news of yet another injury, this time while playing for England, is exactly what you didn’t need to hear. 

His availability remains clouded at this stage but it’s hard to imagine the full-back playing two games in five days. Whether to transfer him out is a margin call, particularly if you have to take a -4 point hit to do so.

Ben Chilwell (DEF, £6m) is the obvious like-for-like replacement if you decide to dump James and stick with Chelsea, but Brighton’s Estupinan is a cheaper alternative who offers real attacking upside.

His Offensive Impect score for the season is better than 89% of players in his position group. Despite a slight dip in attacking threat in his last two outings, he remains a key outlet in the final third for a progressive football team with attractive fixtures.

James Maddison (MID, £8.2m)

James Maddison was finally given a chance for England at Wembley against Ukraine and, while he didn’t register a goal or assist, looked the part in a comfortable 2-0 win.

Fantasy Gameweek has been on this particular bandwagon for a while and we make no apology for flagging him again, particularly with Rashford potentially missing at least one of the two fixtures in Gameweek 29.

The midfielder has delivered 15 attacking returns (nine goals and six assists) in 18 starts for Leicester this season, registering 105 FPL points in the process. He is also one of the top performers when you look at the data, ranking fourth among midfielders, based on his Offensive Impect score (better than 97% of players in that position).

Despite these excellent numbers, Maddison is in just 10% of teams ahead of a double fixture against Crystal Palace (A) and Aston Villa (H). Given the potential unavailability of Rashford, there’s a strong case for giving the Leicester and England star the captain’s armband this week.

Ollie Watkins (FWD, £7.5m)

With Haaland and Havertz both potentially unavailable, plenty of FPL managers will be scratching around for a form striker with an attractive double fixture in Gameweek 29. 

Step forward Aston Villa’s Watkins, who has delivered six goals and two assists in his last eight games and faces a depleted Chelsea (A) and shaky Leicester (A) this week, followed by home fixtures against Nottingham Forest and Newcastle.

Watkins’ underlying data has been excellent during this hot patch, delivering a ‘very high’ Offensive Impect score (meaning he was better than more than 80% of players in his position group) in seven of his last nine fixtures. Pick him with confidence.

Alexander Isak (NEW, £6.7m)

If you followed our recommendation to snap up the Swedish hitman ahead of Newcastle’s Gameweek 28 fixture against Nottingham Forest, you were rewarded with two goals and 13 juicy FPL points. 

Isak’s price tag remains ludicrously low for a player of his talent, especially as he now seems assured of a starting spot in a side chasing Champions League football. The fact Isak now appears to be on penalty duties further bolsters the striker’s value in FPL.

Fixtures against Manchester United (H) and West Ham (A) in Gameweek 29 are by no means straightforward, but this is a player you can potentially set and forget for the remainder of the season.

Impect rankings

Having touched on the latest Impect data already, let’s now look at how Premier League players rank in some key performance indicators. These rankings are based on data from December 26, the first gameweek back after the World Cup, and each player must have played at least 25 per cent of the minutes available since then to be included. Players with a double gameweek are in italics…

Offensive Impect - overall attacking effectiveness

Marcus Rashford - 100
Harry Kane - 99.3
Ollie Watkins - 98.6
Erling Haaland - 97.9
Solly March - 97.2
Kaoru Mitoma - 96.6
Kai Havertz - 95.9
Mo Salah - 95.2
Martin Odegaard - 94.5
Bruno Fernandes - 93.8
Bukayo Saka - 93.1

Post-shot xG - quality of chances and quality of shot

Ollie Watkins - 7.9
Harry Kane - 7.07
Marcus Rashford - 6.02
Erling Haaland - 5.75
James Ward-Prowse - 5.63
Kaoru Mitoma - 5.17
Brennan Johnson - 5.12
Eddie Nketiah - 4.75
Darwin Nunez - 4.44
Mo Salah - 4.37

Bypassed defenders - how many opposition defenders a player takes out of the game with their play, including passing and dribbling

Trent Alexander-Arnold - 12
Kevin De Bruyne - 11
Bruno Fernandes - 9
Christian Norgaard - 9
Solly March - 8
Martin Odegaard - 8
Alex Iwobi - 8
Kieran Trippier - 8
Pascal Gross - 8
Ilkay Gundogan - 7

Offensive Impect, defenders only

Lewis Dunk - 100
Trent Alexander-Arnold - 98.4
Luke Shaw - 96.8
Pervis Estupinan - 93.7
Joel Veltman - 92.1
Marcos Senesi - 90.5
Kieran Trippier - 88.9
Gabriel - 87.3
Luke Ayling - 85.7
Clement Lenglet - 84.1

Fantasy Premier League stats

Now let’s look at a series of key stats on the FPL website ahead of this gameweek to give you a sense of what other teams are doing…

The top-ten points scorers overall

Most selected players

Top transfers-in this week

Top transfers-out

FGPE index

Finally, let’s look at our updated FGPE index. This is how players rank by value and upside. Our FGPE algorithm calculates a score for each player based on their points-per-million and performance relative to others in their position. We have included Jason Steele despite the fact the Brighton goalkeeper has played just three matches to show you how much value a £3.9 million goalkeeper in a top team can offer. As mentioned above, he looks a great option this week…

Thanks for reading. Best of luck in Gameweek 29. Please share Fantasy Gameweek with those you think will find it useful and interesting

Best

Graham and Tom